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I've projected a dollar collapse and long term interest rates spiking (did you see 10yr treasuries today?). The last bubble to burst is the bond bubble. I have no variable interest debt and leveraged 80% of my home's appraisal value as a cash out equity @ 6% 30yr fixed and expatriated all of the the money (taxes will probably be raised, R or D, and the mortgage tax deduction will help anyway). If all goes to plan, the amount owed on the mortgage will be substantially less with a rapidly depreciating dollar vs the basket of currencies my investments are backed by.
Canadian energy trusts paying high dividend yields for income (10-18%) paid in Canadian dollars, some gold/silver, mining, agricultural commodities in NZ/Australia, a little spec Singapore equities in the IRA (tech). Not one USD in any interest bearing account and zero shares of domestic stock.
I will not repatriate one iota of this portfolio unless RP was elected as I anticipate a signficiantly weaker dollar otherwise. I am only leveraged against the dollar by being paid from work and hold emergency cash. I can always liquidate gold in an emergency.
I despise the fact that I feel I have to "hide" my money but hope to return the US market when the time is right.
I own one foreign stock that's listed on the Nasdaq (my only stock) and the rest is in "hard assets" (but no real estate). I'm afraid the dollar will collapse too. Did you read the speculation about another 75bps cut next time around?
Bush/Cheney sure did a number on our finances, didn't they? I'm afraid Obama is too green to handle a real crisis, no matter how brilliant everyone thinks he is (my two reasons for that are his votes on some issues where he said "he didn't think about it" and his proposal for drivers licenses for Illegals where he obviously didn't think about it). I think I could trust an economic crisis to be handled better by Clinton or McCain. I think they both know how to be tight with a buck if they have to be.
Apparently the tide of illegals will not stop under either - so maybe invested in security, gated communities, fences, etc would be good. That is how the upper classes have to live in Mexico, it will soon be that way here.
Why would anyone think that the economy depends on who is president.Has no one noticed that recessions happen no matter which party is in power.Why would they be arguing about the stimulus package in DC ;if they had control.The FED has the most control and one FED chair serves under many different presidents. That goes for Jobs too.Economies are in constant change as markets change and you either change with it or else.The global market can be compared to the changing of america from a rural farm based economy to a manufacturing economy in the 20th century.
No matter who wins. The vast majority will have nothing left of thier pay check to save or invest. Nothing will change. Nothing ever will as long as ya all keep on voting in these crooked corupt clowns who you think is looking out for you. Trust me...they do not care about you.
No matter who wins. The vast majority will have nothing left of thier pay check to save or invest. Nothing will change. Nothing ever will as long as ya all keep on voting in these crooked corupt clowns who you think is looking out for you. Trust me...they do not care about you.
Of course they care about us. Every time they come up for re-election.
Market timing has never been shown to work. Changing your investments according to which party or candidate occupies the White House is a form of market timing. Diversification across all asset classes and sticking with this portfolio over long time horizons is the superior way to invest.
Academic research shows that stocks are the best assets that beat inflation. Real estate comes next. Commodities/precious metals merely track inflation, but don't beat it. Conventional bonds and cash are poor inflation hedges. However, conventional bonds and cash are superior when deflation is the problem because their purchasing power increases when goods and services get cheaper. If you're still worried about inflation but are too scared to buy stocks, then you can go with TIPS (inflation-indexed bonds).
If rising taxes are your concern, put your money in tax exempt municipal bonds. They are exempt from federal taxes. Stop churning your stock and stock fund portfolio so you won't get hit by short term capital gains taxes. Put your dividend earning stocks inside your IRAs and 401Ks, not in taxable accounts.
If the crashing dollar is your concern, then put some of your money in foreign stocks spread out across the globe. You will benefit from the dollar devaluation. In my opinion, this is better than gold as a dollar crash hedge because foreign stocks earn dividends while gold does not.
If you build a diversified portfolio, you will be protected from economic and geopolitical shocks. Don't take my word for it. Do your own research.
If I were king of the world, there are six books I would mandate every American student read, comprehend and pass an extensive test on before graduating high school.
Security Analysis by Graham
Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits by Fischer
Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Weinstein (horrible title, good book)
Contrarian Investment Strategies by Dremen (A new one is slated for release this Spring, I think)
The Aggressive Conservative Investor by Whitman
and another which I won't name.
Contained in those books (some of which expound totally opposite strategies- particularly with Weinstein- but have a general "value" theme) is enough information for a reasonably bright person to react to the stupidity of the masses (it and gravity being one of the few constants on this planet) and beat the market. (oh yeah, and every letter Buffett ever wrote to Berkshire shareholders)
If I were king of the world, there are six books I would mandate every American student read, comprehend and pass an extensive test on before graduating high school.
Security Analysis by Graham
Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits by Fischer
Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Weinstein (horrible title, good book)
Contrarian Investment Strategies by Dremen (A new one is slated for release this Spring, I think)
The Aggressive Conservative Investor by Whitman
and another which I won't name.
Oh c'mon!!! Why won't you name that last one??!!
Gold & Silver have turned out to be good investments, though I bought most gold when it was under $450. Silver, I bought most of it around $5 though I got some more around $9. One investment you rarely see mentioned is Persian rugs...
I own one foreign stock that's listed on the Nasdaq (my only stock) and the rest is in "hard assets" (but no real estate). I'm afraid the dollar will collapse too. Did you read the speculation about another 75bps cut next time around?
Bush/Cheney sure did a number on our finances, didn't they? I'm afraid Obama is too green to handle a real crisis, no matter how brilliant everyone thinks he is (my two reasons for that are his votes on some issues where he said "he didn't think about it" and his proposal for drivers licenses for Illegals where he obviously didn't think about it). I think I could trust an economic crisis to be handled better by Clinton or McCain. I think they both know how to be tight with a buck if they have to be.
I blame Bush/Cheney only so far as their "nudging" the Fed to reduce rates to 1% to inflate an asset bubble and put people in overpriced houses, but also to their irresponsible combination of entitlement programs (especially that communist inspired Medicare prescription plan bill) and lower taxes. Lower taxes can only work when you have reduced spending, otherwise you're just passing the tax off as inflation. I hear people talk about their "impressive" investments, REITs, and other fancy deals. It is all meaningless if the security is dollar backed (i.e. green arrows often mean red arrows). Tax free bonds rely on an inflation index that is way way WAY understated and the US stock market is going much further down IMHO, especially in real terms. The sad reality is that the only security is to get out of the dollar during this crisis and repatriate when things clear up. My portfolio is mostly conservative and few of my stocks are considerd "sexy" like AAPL or GOOG are perceived to be.
Yeah, I heard about it. The Fed is going to turn the dollar into monopoly money.
I know this sounds cold and calculating, but my mortgage is essentially a call option. If the real declines in housing are what I think they'd be, I'll short sell or foreclose (not exercise the option) and buy a house outright with cash using the gains from a much less inflated foreign currency backed asset. It's not like millions won't be there doing it right beside me.
I also hear that globalization has "changed everything". The laws of supply/demand NEVER change, and a consumer based economy like ours is unsustainable. I guarantee that you will see a dramatic drop in Chinese imports coming. They will use and enjoy their own goods instead of sending them here (China has a 35% savings rate and a super efficient production machine). When I tell people this, they look at me as if I'm a holocaust denier. Hey, I warned people not to buy spec homes in 2005 but they didn't listen
I'll be more confident in investing in the stock market because the stock market perfoms better on the up side if the new president is a Democrat.
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