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Old 02-14-2016, 09:30 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,082,703 times
Reputation: 5547

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockside View Post
IMO the makes the GOP a much more interesting, big tent kind of party. Conservatives are only one part of the GOP. Republicans don't adhere to the kind of ideological purity the Democrats do, which makes for a messy, and more raucous big tent. Just watch the debates. Hillary and Bernie keep slugging it out over who's going to give more of other people's money away, the Republicans fight over everything. You want conservative, go Cruz. You want RINO, go Trump. You want in between, go Rubio. Republicans are offering choice this year, Democrats are offering the same old krap.
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:35 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,082,703 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockside View Post
That's the kind of mindless thinking that will get Democrats into trouble this year. Check out the link from The Atlantic. Trump's support is deep and wide-ranging. This is an economy driven election this year, and everyone you bring up is affected by Obama's lackadaisical interest in improving the economy.
Deep might be pushing it a bit. He has core supporters amount each demographic, but still has a lot of people who simply do not like the guy. He benefits from the all the people in the field fracturing the vote multiple ways. I would imagine that if they could have everyone of them drop out by one then Trump wouldn't win many more primaries. It's not an economy driven election, because the economy is in decent shape. If Trump wins the Democrats will win, and with coat tails.
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Old 02-14-2016, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Florida
22,143 posts, read 9,412,616 times
Reputation: 18071
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockside View Post
IMO the makes the GOP a much more interesting, big tent kind of party. Conservatives are only one part of the GOP. Republicans don't adhere to the kind of ideological purity the Democrats do, which makes for a messy, and more raucous big tent. Just watch the debates. Hillary and Bernie keep slugging it out over who's going to give more of other people's money away, the Republicans fight over everything. You want conservative, go Cruz. You want RINO, go Trump. You want in between, go Rubio. Republicans are offering choice this year, Democrats are offering the same old krap.
Interesting math of yours.

Why did Bernie receive 150,000 votes in NH and Trump receive only 100,000? For that matter Clinton received 95,000. Dems sure seem more unified than the GOP.

Love how you describe the GOP as raucous, while everyone else is calling the SC debate last night a big free-for-all mess, with all throwing insults at each other.

2016 full New Hampshire presidential primary election results | Politics - WMUR Home
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Old 02-14-2016, 10:29 AM
 
Location: NY
12,264 posts, read 9,423,388 times
Reputation: 8028
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
Deep might be pushing it a bit. He has core supporters amount each demographic, but still has a lot of people who simply do not like the guy. He benefits from the all the people in the field fracturing the vote multiple ways. I would imagine that if they could have everyone of them drop out by one then Trump wouldn't win many more primaries. It's not an economy driven election, because the economy is in decent shape. If Trump wins the Democrats will win, and with coat tails.
Good post, but I have to disagree about the economy and others do too - The Big Issues Of The 2016 Campaign | FiveThirtyEight

I suspect his negatives will disappear once the GOP field firms up. Let's see how he survives his 9/11 comment last night.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:26 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,082,703 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockside View Post
Good post, but I have to disagree about the economy and others do too - The Big Issues Of The 2016 Campaign | FiveThirtyEight

I suspect his negatives will disappear once the GOP field firms up. Let's see how he survives his 9/11 comment last night.
I really doubt it, because his numbers have been steady for 8 months. He has a core group of people that love him, but most people simply don't like the guy. He hasn't gone out of his way to help that by acting like a jerkoff 24/7 and never building any really policy plans. Like I said before, he is benefitting from a crowded field. If the GOP had rallied around a good candidate we wouldn't be having this conversation. People always cite the economy as the number one factor in the election. That doesn't mean it's actually driving their vote though. I think it's simply a knee jerk reaction on what they consider the most important thing to them is all.

Now I mean it's possible that once he wins the nomination the GOP will be thrilled and turn out in droves, but I doubt it. I really can't envision a whole lot of enthusiasm for the guy in a general election. Neither he nor Clinton are all that liked really. The difference is that demographics in Presidential elections increasingly favor Democrats. The GOPs bread and butter,the White vote, declines as a a share of the total electorate by around 2.5-3 points each election. Which means any candidate has to do better than Mitt Romney did among Whites, or Minorities, to even maintain the same numbers. I can't forsee Donald Trump Winning more whites than Ronald Reagan or getting as many Minorities to vote for him as Bush did. I think this will be another example of the Gop blowing a golden opportunity.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:34 AM
 
44,510 posts, read 17,771,709 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Linda_d View Post
Well that's true ... but only if you don't consider blacks, non-Cuban Hispanics, gays, women, and non-Bible-toting young people worthy of being in your tent.
Yet, Trump has support from all these groups.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:37 AM
 
44,510 posts, read 17,771,709 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma777 View Post
Interesting math of yours.

Why did Bernie receive 150,000 votes in NH and Trump receive only 100,000? For that matter Clinton received 95,000. Dems sure seem more unified than the GOP.

Love how you describe the GOP as raucous, while everyone else is calling the SC debate last night a big free-for-all mess, with all throwing insults at each other.
That should be obvious. GOP 9 candidates, DNC 3 candidates.

But here is the most telling tale.

More people voted in the GOP primary than in the DEM primary in this very BLUE state. This never happens in NH in an open election year. Furthermore there was a substantial drop between 2008 & 2016 in the number of Democrats who voted in the NH primary.

It's very bad news for the Democrats.
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Old 02-15-2016, 08:56 AM
 
11,758 posts, read 5,531,753 times
Reputation: 7964
Well, two things:

1. We are only talking about people who voted in the Republican primary. We don't know how many non-Republicans voted in the GOP primary because NH has an open primary, but obviously a predominant portion of the primary voters were Republicans. A lot of people here seem to conflate the Republican electorate with the general election electorate. Let's be honest, a candidate's appeal to Hispanic Republicans or gay Republicans, for example, don't mean anything if you think about it.

2. When they say Mr. Trump "won" such and such group (other than women whose data is shown - 33%) we don't know if he got a substantial chunk of the votes from that group. For example, winning with 30% is not really impressive even if we take into account of the numerous other clowns running. But if he won with 58%, let's say, that's awesome.

Mick
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Old 02-15-2016, 10:14 AM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
66,315 posts, read 33,652,276 times
Reputation: 14182
The death of Scalia, has cemented my vote for Ted Cruz.
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