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It really depends on how willing you think "the Establishment" (who are they, anyways?) are to cut a deal with Cruz or Trump. Even if Rubio keeps pulling in at #2 or#3 he's the only game in town now.
I don't think they could with Trump under any circumstances. With Cruz it's more based on delegate math, I think. He will stay in until at least March the 5th if he does okay on Super Tuesday.
I don't think they could with Trump under any circumstances. With Cruz it's more based on delegate math, I think. He will stay in until at least March the 5th if he does okay on Super Tuesday.
If they can't cut a deal with Trump and won't cut a deal with Cruz, then they have to back Rubio no matter how he finishes in the primaries. They have no other option.
Because I think either Rubio will break out and get enough delegates to secure the nomination or he will drop out before then. It's possible that Trump would come in first and still fail to get enough delegates, but I don't think the GOP would go to a brokered convention then. They don't want to ensure he runs as a 3rd party out of spite. Trump isn't a conservative by any stretch of the imagination. He has no qualms about raining on their parade.
If they can't cut a deal with Trump and won't cut a deal with Cruz, then they have to back Rubio no matter how he finishes in the primaries. They have no other option.
Which is what they are doing, but at some point even then have to see the writing on the wall. You can't lose twenty some primaries in a row and still have people continuing to say "The breakout is just around the corner." At this point it's too early to say though. Rubio might do very well in the upcoming states during the next two weeks.
It's been a question for a long time on just when Marco Rubio will break out. He obviously did very well in both Iowa and South Carolina, but rather more poorly in New Hampshire. Still, he seems to have the ability to capture a good portion of the vote and the the GOP establishment seems to believe eventually the tide will turn in his favor. How long can he go without a victory before they decide he isn't likely to win? Trump is most likely going to win Nevada. I think that is pretty much a forgone conclusion in everyones minds. Super Tuesday has long looked very favorable to both Trump and Cruz, but Cruzes inability to pull a victory in SC leaves it in doubt on just how well he will do. So with the likelihood that Trump and Cruz will win most if not all of the states does the support for Rubio still stand or begin to ebb?
When you have 1 candidate running against 5 or6, sometimes more candidates it is pretty hard to be one of those 5 or 6. If the establishment doesn't stand behind Rubio who would you suggest they stand by, John Wayne? Trump will win NV most likely, you are right, but where are you getting the idea it is likely Trump or Cruz will win all the southern states? I am inclined to think it might be split with much of Bush people turning to Rubio. This is just my opinion, who knows what will happen from here on out? Remember if Rubio, Cruz or others get enough support we could be looking at a very interesting convention. I will say one thing, here in NWA where there are a lot of very active political people Rubio is very popular, so is Cruz. I can not say how popular they are in the Little Rock area.
You also have to remember, even though he came In 5th in NH, it was so close among the 3 candidates that they were all winners or all losers, depending on how you look at it.
He has a chance to win some states but I don't think Michigan is one of them. Trump and even Kasich could do better in Michigan. Trump has been very vocal about losing manufacturing jobs to China and Mexico and about Ford building a plant in Mexico and Carrier leaving to Mexico. Michigan has been hit very hard by all of this.
I would agree with you, Michigan is not likely to go to Rubio. My question still is to the OP who do you think the establishment should support? Do you think they are going to lay down and give it to Trump without a fight?
When you have 1 candidate running against 5 or6, sometimes more candidates it is pretty hard to be one of those 5 or 6. If the establishment doesn't stand behind Rubio who would you suggest they stand by, John Wayne? Trump will win NV most likely, you are right, but where are you getting the idea it is likely Trump or Cruz will win all the southern states? I am inclined to think it might be split with much of Bush people turning to Rubio. This is just my opinion, who knows what will happen from here on out? Remember if Rubio, Cruz or others get enough support we could be looking at a very interesting convention. I will say one thing, here in NWA where there are a lot of very active political people Rubio is very popular, so is Cruz. I can not say how popular they are in the Little Rock area.
Because their composition will be similar to the voting block of South Carolina. Rubio might get most of Bushes voters, but unless he gets all of them he still falls short of victory. That's assuming that he will. With both Christie and Fiorina out he got about the same as Cruz.
I would agree with you, Michigan is not likely to go to Rubio. My question still is to the OP who do you think the establishment should support? Do you think they are going to lay down and give it to Trump without a fight?
Eventually they might have to do so. My question was not whether they should, but rather at what point does doing so become futile. Rubio would be a more natural fit for the General election. Although he does have some weaknesses. Still, he is going to fair much better than Trump or Cruz would I think. His biggest issue is eventually achieving a breakout. If he does that then he will likely win. It's possible he will lose Michigan, but with a large amount of urban voters he might still pull it off.
Because their composition will be similar to the voting block of South Carolina. Rubio might get most of Bushes voters, but unless he gets all of them he still falls short of victory. That's assuming that he will. With both Christie and Fiorina out he got about the same as Cruz.
you would almost have to live in the south to totally understand the people here. Remember many of the southern states are also very rural, not totally like So. Carolina. Again, I ask you, but you seem to be ducking the question, what do you expect the GOP establishment to do, give up?
ok, I hadn't read your second answer, you did make an attempt at answering my question.
All the marbles are on Rubio. He is already getting the Jeb donors money since Jeb raised just 1.6 million in January. As another poster pointed out Trump will win in a romp in Michigan since he is talking about relocation of manufacturing jobs . Kasich will stay in for Ohio and do well and hang up the spikes after Michigan which gives Rubio no help at all. Rubio's only chance of winning a state is Virginia the home base of the establishment.
Stick a fork in Rubio he is done. It will come down to Trump and Cruz and after Michigan Trump will have a huge delegate lead and I do not think Cruz can catch him. What could Trump do to sway the election to Cruz? it surely won't be a gaffe because Trump already has had a bunch and here he is on top.
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