Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Slight update on the GOP side. Rubio has asked that his delegates in Alaska that were previously reallocated to Trump and Cruz be sent back to him, so far now at least they will still count for him.
Democrats
Clinton 1265 (hard total 1172)-- Needs 43.5% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1038 (hard total 904)- Needs 56.5% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 56.9% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping i will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 752 Needs 54.1% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 463 Needs 86.4% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 174 Kasich 144 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 10 Unpledged 18
*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done)
63.8% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 7% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them[/quote]
Nevada held its County Conventions, based off those results it appears that Bernie is now ahead regarding the statewide delegatees. This will be finalized later in the process, but what this means is there are two delegates estimated to go frorm Clinton to Sanders from original estimates which would turn Nevada from 20-15 in favor of Clinton to 18-17 in favor of Clinton. This only pertains to the 12 statewide delegates that will be split in groups of 5 and 7.
What remains unclear is if this will have any impact on the Congressional District delegates. These delegate totals were not mentioned at the County Conventions (only County conventions so far) and there is conflicting information on if the 23 Cogressional District delegates will be based off the Caucus night result, or if they could still change and be finalized in May along with the statewide Convention and statewide delegates. So for now I will keep them allocated to how they were on Caucus night, though this is something that might certainly be revisited if there is more clarity regarding the full statewide county delegates or more info on what happens with the CD results. Either way for now it appears 2 delegates flip from Clinton to Sanders in Nevada, but it isn't final, could wind up being more or less when its all set and done/
Democrats
Clinton 1263 (hard total 1172)-- Needs 43.6% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1040 (hard total 904)- Needs 56.4% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 56.9% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping I will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 752 Needs 54.1% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 463 Needs 86.4% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 174 Kasich 144 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 10 Unpledged 18
*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done)
63.8% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 7% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them
Nevada held its County Conventions, based off those results it appears that Bernie is now ahead regarding the statewide delegatees. This will be finalized later in the process, but what this means is there are two delegates estimated to go frorm Clinton to Sanders from original estimates which would turn Nevada from 20-15 in favor of Clinton to 18-17 in favor of Clinton. This only pertains to the 12 statewide delegates that will be split in groups of 5 and 7.
What remains unclear is if this will have any impact on the Congressional District delegates. These delegate totals were not mentioned at the County Conventions (only County conventions so far) and there is conflicting information on if the 23 Cogressional District delegates will be based off the Caucus night result, or if they could still change and be finalized in May along with the statewide Convention and statewide delegates. So for now I will keep them allocated to how they were on Caucus night, though this is something that might certainly be revisited if there is more clarity regarding the full statewide county delegates or more info on what happens with the CD results. Either way for now it appears 2 delegates flip from Clinton to Sanders in Nevada, but it isn't final, could wind up being more or less when its all set and done/
Democrats
Clinton 1263 (hard total 1172)-- Needs 43.6% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1040 (hard total 904)- Needs 56.4% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 56.9% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping I will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 752 Needs 54.1% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 463 Needs 86.4% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 174 Kasich 144 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 10 Unpledged 18
*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done)
63.8% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 7% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them
Colorado held county conventions already according to green papers. Any change in delegates?
Colorado held county conventions already according to green papers. Any change in delegates?
From what I have seen they are ongoing and last through the 15th (might differ by county) so if that is the case I don't think much gets released until then.
Updating numbers based on results from last night.
Wisconsin
Sanders 48
Clinton 38
These are just preliminary and possible could change slightly. In 3 of the districts with a 6 delegate split, Sanders is up by about 15 points, however due to the proportional split and with 6 delegates he would need to win them by 16.66 to come away with more delegates than Clinton. Instead a 15 point victory put them at a 3-3 split in those disricts. Revised district numbers could change that since he is close to what is needed.
On the GOP side, Cruz won statewide and 6 of the 8 districts which gives him a 36-6 delegate victory
Democrats
Clinton 1299 (hard total 1208)-- Needs 43.7% of remaining delegates to get 50% +1 of pledged delegates) Sanders 1090 (hard total 954)- Needs 56.3% of Remaining Delegates to get 50% +1 of Pledged Delegates) Too close to call 1 59.0% of pledged delegates have been awarded so far
Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Maine and Alaska's delegates are finalized later in the process (as are Idaho and Washington's Statewide delegates) estimates can be made based off caucus night results (this includes later convention's if not final) due to the fact these can still change later in the process any congressional district or statewide delegate that is within 1% of flipping I will put them in the category of too close to call
Republicans
Totals Trump 758 Needs 57.1% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 Cruz 505 Needs 87.2% of remaining delegates to get to 1237 *Rubio 173 Kasich 144 *Carson 8 *Bush 4 *Paul 1 *Fiorina 1 *Huckabee 1 Uncommitted 11 Unpledged 27
[b]*Please note the estimate for what both Trump and Cruz will need to get 50% +1 is just that an estimate. These do not include those currently listed as unpledged (which could drop what each of them need), or the potential for unpledged delegates in later states and how they may vote (which could increase what they would need) as there is no real consensus on the amount of unpledged delegates that there will be when its all set and done) In addition to get the majority of the Pledged delegates Trump would need 56.0% of remaining pledged delegates and Cruz would need 89.3%/B]
66.1% of delegates awarded so far, this does include uncommitted and potential unpledged/ superdelegates
* Dropped out, each state has its own rules on how what they do with these delegates. Some are released right away, others it is up to the candidate, some are determined on the wording of the candidate dropping out, others are bound to the first ballot or further. I will keep these in the column of the candidate unless there is specific information on if and how they will be reallocated. Rubio initially had his 5 delegates in Alaska reallocated, but for now it has been sent back to Rubio.
At this point the Republicans have awarded about 7% more of their total delegates than the Democrats have, this is for a few reasons
1. Democrats award bonus delegates to states who hold Primaries later in the process. They also award bonus delegates to states in the same region that cluster their Primaries together, the Republicans do not do this.
2. Both parties have how Democratic or Republican the state is as part of how they allocate the delegates. There has been more GOP leaning states at this point in the process, more Dem leaning states are coming up later.
3. There have been a few areas where the GOP has held contests that the Democrats have not yet held them[/quote]
If Wisconsin stays 48-38, that's exactly on target for both of them per Nate Silver's delegate tracker (his estimate of how many delegates each candidate needs to win in each state to win a majority of pledged delegates)
Green papers, 538, AP now all have Sanders 23 - 10 Clinton in Kansas (previously 24-9)
The discrepancy is in CD4
Green papers used 6775 as Sanders votes in CD4, so it ended up 24-9
But if you look at state party results, sanders votes are 6567 so it should be 23-10 Kansas Democratic Caucus Results | Kansas Democratic Party
Green papers, 538, AP now all have Sanders 23 - 10 Clinton in Kansas (previously 24-9)
The discrepancy is in CD4
Green papers used 6775 as Sanders votes in CD4, so it ended up 24-9
But if you look at state party results, sanders votes are 6567 so it should be 23-10 Kansas Democratic Caucus Results | Kansas Democratic Party
Look at the date on that article. That was the initial count . When the final numbers came in, Sanders received an extra delegate. So it went from 23-10 to 24-9. With that being said I will look more into it when I can
Look at the date on that article. That was the initial count . When the final numbers came in, Sanders received an extra delegate. So it went from 23-10 to 24-9. With that being said I will look more into it when I can
Green papers, 538 and AP just changed the count back to 23-10 today.
You can see green papers where they haven't updated their table with detailed calculations which shows 24-9
But they changed on the top to 23-10 already
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.