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Old 02-21-2016, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
31,988 posts, read 34,536,457 times
Reputation: 15022

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Black turnout in NC in 2008 was 23% of the vote. Not 34%.

The state as a whole is 21% Black.
He was talking about the primary.

 
Old 02-21-2016, 05:33 PM
 
52,433 posts, read 26,509,895 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Let's call a spade a spade. I thought you people were all about getting rid of "political correctness." The beauty of Donald Trump is that his supporters don't have to feel so guilty about their bigoted views, right?
"You people"? I don't think you helped your argument. Neither does calling vast swaths of people bigots.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 05:35 PM
 
1,972 posts, read 1,273,734 times
Reputation: 1790
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Ahh. So you now trying to describe the election in terms of White bigots vs minorities.

You just lost any legitimacy in whatever argument that you attempted to make.
Well the "American Freedom Party" call him the “Great White Hope”, David Duke called him the best of the lot. He is VERY popular in those, let's call it circles......
But to call all Trump voters bigots is obviously a bridge too far.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 05:38 PM
 
11,989 posts, read 5,267,639 times
Reputation: 7284
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives View Post
That map is comedic gold.

So Trump is going to flip every swing state, something Romney (going up against an incumbent sitting on 8% unemployment) failed to do 2012. Good stuff.

Occam's Razor says Trump's road to the White House has far more obstacles than Hillary's. For starters, the non-hispanic vote he exclusively caters to is projected to decline in this election.

Even if Trump gets 60% of the non-hispanic white vote (doubtful, given his unpopularity with women), he loses badly.
Forget about women for the moment. If the Republican nominee doesn't improve on Romney's numbers with minorities, and the electorate in 2016 is 70% non-Hispanic white/30% minority (which is a conservative estimate of minority growth), the GOP nominee would need somewhere between 63% and 64% of the total non-Hispanic vote in order to win the national popular vote. If the non-Hispanic white vote falls to 69%, and there's no uptick in the GOP share of the minority vote, the GOP nominee would need 65% of the non-Hispanic white vote to win the national popular vote.

For some historical perspective, the last candidate to approach that level of support among white voters was Ronald Reagan's re-election of 1984, in which he received, depending on the study used, between 63% and 66% of the non-Hispanic. Reagan used that white vote to fuel a landslide of about 17 million votes, but he did it with an electorate that was close to 90% white. If you run a computer simulation of the race and just adjust the percentages to what exists today, he would have won, but by a much smaller margin. Every four year cycle, as the minority percentages grow, the odds of achieving a victory based solely on non-Hispanic white voters grows more improbable.

Articles | Karl Rove

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/21/op...hope.html?_r=2

Whit Ayres: A Daunting Demographic Challenge for the GOP in 2016 - WSJ

Last edited by Bureaucat; 02-21-2016 at 06:05 PM..
 
Old 02-21-2016, 05:43 PM
 
Location: Pyongjang
5,701 posts, read 3,211,297 times
Reputation: 3925
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Forget about women for the moment. If the Republican nominee doesn't improve on Romney's numbers with minorities, and the electorate in 2016 is 70% non-Hispanic white/30% minority (which is a conservative estimate of minority growth), the GOP nominee would need somewhere between 63% and 64% of the total non-Hispanic vote in order to win the national popular vote. If the non-Hispanic white vote falls to 69%, and there's no uptick in the GOP share of the minority vote, the GOP nominee would need 65% of the non-Hispanic white vote to win the national popular vote.

Articles | Karl Rove

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/21/op...hope.html?_r=2

Whit Ayres: A Daunting Demographic Challenge for the GOP in 2016 - WSJ
Theres no point in using 2012 as a baseline for anything. Theres no Obama this time.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,828 posts, read 9,386,595 times
Reputation: 6288
Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
Theres no point in using 2012 as a baseline for anything. Theres no Obama this time.
A) Obama's popularity shrank in 2012... yet he still won comfortably.

B) He lost non-hispanic white voters by a historic margin for a winning candidate... yet still won comfortably.

C) It's the most recent election, and the demographics that carried Obama to victory have grown since then.

If you want to stare longingly at the electoral map from 1984, knock yourself out. Just know that those demographics aren't coming back any time soon.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 06:01 PM
 
11,989 posts, read 5,267,639 times
Reputation: 7284
Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
Theres no point in using 2012 as a baseline for anything. Theres no Obama this time.
Use any election since 1992 as a baseline and you either get a sizable Democratic win or a Republican squeaker. The high water mark for a Republican candidate was Dubya in 2004 who received 50.73%. The low point for the D's was Lurch Kerry in 2004 with 48.26%. Those figures came in an electorate that was 77% non-Hispanic white, or 7 or 8% whiter than computer modeling anticipates for 2016. It was also the year that the GOP placed social issues on the ballot in key states and Ol' Turdblossom did a masterful job of looking under every rock to find voters moved by those issues. Not the best situation for a party that's overly dependent on non-Hispanic whites, particularly on non-college grad non-Hispanic white voters that are losing 3% of the total votes cast with every four year Presidential cycle, a trend that started over 20 years ago and continues unabated due to demographic change.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 02-21-2016 at 06:44 PM..
 
Old 02-21-2016, 06:06 PM
 
729 posts, read 427,884 times
Reputation: 740
DNC will do anything to try to build her up. Their rigging with the super delegates is her only real shot at the nomination.
 
Old 02-21-2016, 06:20 PM
 
11,989 posts, read 5,267,639 times
Reputation: 7284
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manimuni View Post
DNC will do anything to try to build her up. Their rigging with the super delegates is her only real shot at the nomination.
She's not despised by Democrats. She still has high favorables with Dems (+47%). It's the Pubs and uber conservative Independents that despise her.

Politics | Gallup Topic

Not many of the upcoming primary/caucus states are that favorable to Bernie. He'll do well in New England and perhaps Minnesota or Wisconsin, but that's probably it. Aside from his home state of Vermont, his most favorable states were probably Iowa and New Hampshire.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 02-21-2016 at 06:36 PM..
 
Old 02-21-2016, 06:50 PM
 
14,221 posts, read 6,932,262 times
Reputation: 6059
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
She's not despised by Democrats. She still has high favorables with Dems (+47%). It's the Pubs and uber conservative Independents that despise her.

Politics | Gallup Topic

Not many of the upcoming primary/caucus states are that favorable to Bernie. He'll do well in New England and perhaps Minnesota or Wisconsin, but that's probably it. Aside from his home state of Vermont, his most favorable states were probably Iowa and New Hampshire.
58% have an unfavorable rating of her, while 37% have a favorable rating according to the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Bernie is doing great in Colorado which is a super Tuesday state and all of the Western states. I'll go out on a limb and say he'll probably win all the remaining caucuses.
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