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Old 02-09-2008, 09:52 AM
 
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Political futures markets are a much more reliable indicator of election outcomes than ordinary polling. Since real money is involved, the traders tend to be more realistic and non-partisan when betting on the outcomes. Traders buy futures contracts according to who they think is most likely going to be the winner, rather than who they want to be the winner. A trader could be Democrat, for example, but if he believes the Republican will win the election, then he will place his money on the Republican if he wants to make a profit. Futures markets were very accurate in predicting results of the last few elections, including Bush winning over Kerry in 2006.

The market that I follow is the Iowa Electronic Markets which is a project of the University of Iowa college of business. See this:

Iowa Electronic Markets ~ Current Markets: 2008 Nominiation Markets

According to the latest market report (2/8/08), Barack Obama is favored to win the Democratic nomination. See this:

IEM 2008 US Democratic National Convention Market Price Graph
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Old 02-09-2008, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma
15,035 posts, read 13,370,802 times
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That futures market doesn't seem to be taking into account the prediction that the Jamison psychic twins(pictured below) are sticking with. They predict Hillary will be the next president of the United States. But the election will be close.
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