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Old 03-08-2016, 07:07 PM
 
71 posts, read 41,380 times
Reputation: 47

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1. Here's what I see for CERTAIN happening at the Convention:

No one gets a MAJORITY of pledged delegates to clinch the nomination.

Thus, 4 men go to the Convention seeking the nomination.

The Convention reaffirms that they don't really want Trump.

2. Here is what I see as a likely scenario that will play off of that:

Trump is out, no one wants him. Now they have the remaining three.

Kasich: Not enough support in the primaries to really justify nominating him, but, don't go away quite yet.

Cruz: This is the interesting one. Cruz might come in second of delegate count ahead of Rubio, but then again, he might not. Though Cruz has quashed Rubio in recent causus states, Rubio finished well ahead of Cruz in PRIMARY states, which all are from here on out. And with Trump's numbers dropping in winner take all Florida, Rubio might soon be back in the game.

But either way, Cruz is really not liked, at all, within his own party. So he's really one step above Trump.

Rubio: In a Convention where there is no obligation do "follow the leader" due to a lack of a majority in delegates, Rubio is likely the strongest claimant in the eyes of the party elite. The establishment likes him more than Cruz and Trump, and he in fact IS the "establishment candidate" among the remaining 4. Plus, he is the one polling ahead of Hillary in National polls. Can't discount electability.

3. If number 2 happens, here's what's likely from there:

Rubio gets nominated, maybe not on the first ballot as this Convention will be a bloodbath, but, he gets nominated.

On that final convention day, Rubio comes to say: "Kasich with your approval numbers so bright, won't you be my VP tonight?"

Result: Florida and Ohio in the bag, and no scandals or ethical concerns clouding them, the two men go on to face a candidate currently polling behind the latter, with a long history of scandals and questionable ethics, in the middle of an FBI investigation that is getting deeper by the day.

Good luck Hillary. Better hope everyone has amnesia in November.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:09 PM
 
79,153 posts, read 33,597,768 times
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If nothing drastic changes, Trump is the nominee.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:20 PM
 
71 posts, read 41,380 times
Reputation: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
If nothing drastic changes, Trump is the nominee.
If nothing changes, the math doesn't ad up for Trump to be the nominee.

Remember, the GOP is making it clearer by the day that if trump fails to clinch a majority of pledged delegates, they won't let him have it at the Convention.

He needs to clinch a majority, and he's not mathematically on track for that to happen. This late in the game he's got only about 400 of the over 1200 delegates needed.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:21 PM
 
36 posts, read 23,924 times
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I think the RNC is drastically underestimating the blow back from this. I don't mind a Brokered Convention that comes around naturally. But one that is forced by the RNC via power and money.......
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:26 PM
 
79,153 posts, read 33,597,768 times
Reputation: 15837
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onslow View Post
If nothing changes, the math doesn't ad up for Trump to be the nominee.
I find this argument so odd. I have no idea what the numbers will be but to argue if Trump has three times the delegates than the runner up that the math doesn't add up for him but it does for someone with far less makes no sense.

Quote:
Remember, the GOP is making it clearer by the day that if trump fails to clinch a majority of pledged delegates, they won't let him have it at the Convention.

He needs to clinch a majority, and he's not mathematically on track for that to happen. This late in the game he's got only about 400 of the over 1200 delegates needed.
What you don't seem to have grasped is those who argue that are being marginalized more and more every day. Look at Graham.....he says it all the time and what is the reaction? The reaction is "go away Lindsey".

It's an automatic loss if the GOP picks anyone other than Trump. If it's Trump/Sanders, Sanders win.

If it's Trump/Hillary its the one who can get the most independent voters. I say that will be Trump.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Upstate NY
35,490 posts, read 10,514,156 times
Reputation: 33620
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onslow View Post
1. Here's what I see for CERTAIN happening at the Convention:

No one gets a MAJORITY of pledged delegates to clinch the nomination.

Thus, 4 men go to the Convention seeking the nomination.

The Convention reaffirms that they don't really want Trump.

2. Here is what I see as a likely scenario that will play off of that:

Trump is out, no one wants him. Now they have the remaining three.

Kasich: Not enough support in the primaries to really justify nominating him, but, don't go away quite yet.

Cruz: This is the interesting one. Cruz might come in second of delegate count ahead of Rubio, but then again, he might not. Though Cruz has quashed Rubio in recent causus states, Rubio finished well ahead of Cruz in PRIMARY states, which all are from here on out. And with Trump's numbers dropping in winner take all Florida, Rubio might soon be back in the game.

But either way, Cruz is really not liked, at all, within his own party. So he's really one step above Trump.

Rubio: In a Convention where there is no obligation do "follow the leader" due to a lack of a majority in delegates, Rubio is likely the strongest claimant in the eyes of the party elite. The establishment likes him more than Cruz and Trump, and he in fact IS the "establishment candidate" among the remaining 4. Plus, he is the one polling ahead of Hillary in National polls. Can't discount electability.

3. If number 2 happens, here's what's likely from there:

Rubio gets nominated, maybe not on the first ballot as this Convention will be a bloodbath, but, he gets nominated.

On that final convention day, Rubio comes to say: "Kasich with your approval numbers so bright, won't you be my VP tonight?"

Result: Florida and Ohio in the bag, and no scandals or ethical concerns clouding them, the two men go on to face a candidate currently polling behind the latter, with a long history of scandals and questionable ethics, in the middle of an FBI investigation that is getting deeper by the day.

Good luck Hillary. Better hope everyone has amnesia in November.



"The Convention " doesn't want Trump, so he leaves?

That's not how it works, but these posts have been hilarious.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:27 PM
 
2,190 posts, read 2,109,187 times
Reputation: 3900
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onslow View Post
If nothing changes, the math doesn't ad up for Trump to be the nominee.

Remember, the GOP is making it clearer by the day that if trump fails to clinch a majority of pledged delegates, they won't let him have it at the Convention.

He needs to clinch a majority, and he's not mathematically on track for that to happen. This late in the game he's got only about 400 of the over 1200 delegates needed.


Like who? How about numbers of who supports and doesn't support Trump within the GOP? This should be good...
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:31 PM
 
Location: Houston
22,537 posts, read 11,600,379 times
Reputation: 9091
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onslow View Post
1. Here's what I see for CERTAIN happening at the Convention:

No one gets a MAJORITY of pledged delegates to clinch the nomination.

Thus, 4 men go to the Convention seeking the nomination.

The Convention reaffirms that they don't really want Trump.

2. Here is what I see as a likely scenario that will play off of that:

Trump is out, no one wants him. Now they have the remaining three.

Kasich: Not enough support in the primaries to really justify nominating him, but, don't go away quite yet.

Cruz: This is the interesting one. Cruz might come in second of delegate count ahead of Rubio, but then again, he might not. Though Cruz has quashed Rubio in recent causus states, Rubio finished well ahead of Cruz in PRIMARY states, which all are from here on out. And with Trump's numbers dropping in winner take all Florida, Rubio might soon be back in the game.

But either way, Cruz is really not liked, at all, within his own party. So he's really one step above Trump.

Rubio: In a Convention where there is no obligation do "follow the leader" due to a lack of a majority in delegates, Rubio is likely the strongest claimant in the eyes of the party elite. The establishment likes him more than Cruz and Trump, and he in fact IS the "establishment candidate" among the remaining 4. Plus, he is the one polling ahead of Hillary in National polls. Can't discount electability.

3. If number 2 happens, here's what's likely from there:

Rubio gets nominated, maybe not on the first ballot as this Convention will be a bloodbath, but, he gets nominated.

On that final convention day, Rubio comes to say: "Kasich with your approval numbers so bright, won't you be my VP tonight?"

Result: Florida and Ohio in the bag, and no scandals or ethical concerns clouding them, the two men go on to face a candidate currently polling behind the latter, with a long history of scandals and questionable ethics, in the middle of an FBI investigation that is getting deeper by the day.

Good luck Hillary. Better hope everyone has amnesia in November.
And if Trump reacts by staging an independent campaign Hillary wins .
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:31 PM
 
71 posts, read 41,380 times
Reputation: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
I find this argument so odd. I have no idea what the numbers will be but to argue if Trump has three times the delegates than the runner up that the math doesn't add up for him but it does for someone with far less makes no sense.



What you don't seem to have grasped is those who argue that are being marginalized more and more every day. Look at Graham.....he says it all the time and what is the reaction? The reaction is "go away Lindsey".

It's an automatic loss if the GOP picks anyone other than Trump. If it's Trump/Sanders, Sanders win.

If it's Trump/Hillary its the one who can get the most independent voters. I say that will be Trump.
I'm taking this right out of the Horse's mouth, so I don;t know what straws you are grasping at here. You are in a fringe minority who think that pluralities, and not majorities, win it. That is not true now, that is not the way it has ever been, and virtually everyone but Chistie is saying that a brokered convention will be highly unfavorable to Trump.

Spokeperson's for Rubio and Kasich are SAYING that this is WHY they are staying in the campaign, so they can go to an undecided Convention.

Your assertion that scores of independents are going to flock to a candidate they don't like just because the candidate they like better came to be through a brokered convention is unfounded.

And I can't stress enough, you can't turn on the news for 10 minutes without hearing pundits project that Trump won't be nominated by the party elite voluntarily.

In a brokered convention where the party has a choice in the matter, they will make their decision on who they like and who has the best chance of winning. That's Rubio. No one is claiming that's not Rubio.
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Old 03-08-2016, 07:35 PM
 
273 posts, read 109,175 times
Reputation: 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onslow View Post
I'm taking this right out of the Horse's mouth, so I don;t know what straws you are grasping at here. You are in a fringe minority who think that pluralities, and not majorities, win it. That is not true now, that is not the way it has ever been, and virtually everyone but Chistie is saying that a brokered convention will be highly unfavorable to Trump.

Spokeperson's for Rubio and Kasich are SAYING that this is WHY they are staying in the campaign, so they can go to an undecided Convention.

Your assertion that scores of independents are going to flock to a candidate they don't like just because the candidate they like better came to be through a brokered convention is unfounded.

And I can't stress enough, you can't turn on the news for 10 minutes without hearing pundits project that Trump won't be nominated by the party elite voluntarily.

In a brokered convention where the party has a choice in the matter, they will make their decision on who they like and who has the best chance of winning. That's Rubio. No one is claiming that's not Rubio.
Little Marco is DONE!!!!, stick a fork in him
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