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Old 03-19-2016, 10:56 AM
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Location: Long Island / NYC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
Your math is off, he needs closer to 600 to win. You really expect Trumps racist, hateful rhetoric to fly in those states? You're in for a surprise. His rhetoric doesn't play well outside the south and Cruz just picked up a ton of new voters with Rubio dropping out.
It plays fine, he got 49% of the vote in the Massachusetts Republican primary; it was his best state. Cruz on the other hand, doesn't fit well at all here. I'd assume he do well in New York, and much of the Northeast.

Of course that doesn't mean rhetoric plays amongst general election voters, but we're talking about primaries.
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:02 AM
 
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Default Trump needs 498 of 944 delegates left to win Nomination

As I reported earlier, if Trump wins these states, he wins nomination with comfortable margin.

If Trump takes
  • Arizona - WON
  • Wisconson
  • New York <-Winner Take Most
  • Delaware
  • Maryland
  • Pennsylvania
  • Indiana
  • California
  • New Jersey
He will end up with 1,296 delegates. Furthermore, as backup, The Trump states of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Washington are all Winner Take Most. And of course Trump will rack up proportional delegates and most likely will win a few more of the Winner take All states.

This is 53% of remaining delegates
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:26 AM
 
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From Harry Enten of 538:

Quote:
Harry Enten 1:41 AM

Going strictly by the math (which may be dangerous if Trump picks up momentum after tonight), this was not a great night for Trump. Our expert delegate panel expected him to pick up 64 delegates tonight in the same projection that had him falling short of 1,237 after all the votes were cast. Our delegate target for Trump to reach 1,237 before the convention had him winning 70 delegates tonight. In reality, Trump’s likely only going to pick up a total of 58 delegates from American Samoa, Arizona and Utah.

Mick
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
1,658 posts, read 1,867,464 times
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Everyone pretty much realizes Trump has the nomination at this point. Continuing the process is just a formality at this point.
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:32 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeusAV View Post
Everyone pretty much realizes Trump has the nomination at this point. Continuing the process is just a formality at this point.
Not everyone. If it goes to a contested convention, it is anyone's game . . . . and Mr. Trump is on pace to fall below 1,237 delegates per my post above re 538.

Mick
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:34 AM
 
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If he doesn't win it outright he is in big trouble because the delegates are being chosen by the PARTY and they don't have to vote for who they represent past the first vote. From what I'm hearing many delegates won by Trump are not Trump fans picked by the party.

Get your pop corn ready
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:35 AM
 
25,956 posts, read 39,258,552 times
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If it will contested and Trump will not get the nomination than it will be GOP as a dead party, RIP, and Trump will probably be backed by all his voters to run as an Independent and many voters will register as Independents and no longer as Republicans!
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
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Where was he supposed to pick up the 70 delegates from? Nobody was predicting he would win Utah. Even in Arizona there were reports that Cruz was "surging". The fact that Cruz spent the last few days campaigning there shows he must have believed it. Trump's immigration message was on the line in Arizona. He had to win big and he did. They are not very many Utahs coming up. The landscape ahead is very hostile to Cruz.
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:37 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bentlebee View Post
If it will contested and Trump will not get the nomination than it will be GOP as a dead party, RIP, and Trump will probably be backed by all his voters to run as an Independent and many voters will register as Independents and no longer as Republicans!
And the Democrats rejoice!

Mick
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Old 03-23-2016, 07:40 AM
 
11,758 posts, read 5,562,882 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyRider View Post
Where was he supposed to pick up the 70 delegates from? Nobody was predicting he would win Utah. Even in Arizona there were reports that Cruz was "surging". The fact that Cruz spent the last few days campaigning there shows he must have believed it. Trump's immigration message was on the line in Arizona. He had to win big and he did. They are not very many Utahs coming up. The landscape ahead is very hostile to Cruz.
Cruz does not have to (cannot, actually) win the delegate race. He knows it. His (and Kasich's) game plan is to simply deny Mr. Trump of just enough delegates to force a contested convention, where they could take out Mr. Trump with the help of the GOP.

Mick
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