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Old 03-23-2016, 08:10 AM
 
4,022 posts, read 1,850,529 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
How Silly. But you do post, as fact, projections from a website that previously projected that Trump had a 2% chance to win.
Yeah, but....

They're "experts" so.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:17 AM
 
2,744 posts, read 987,380 times
Reputation: 3203
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyRider View Post
We have actual results. It is called 750+ delegates but you always want to see the next result.
Because you need 1237 and even New York which is a winner take all state is NOT based on state wide votes but by districts and you need 50% or more in each district to win all the districts delegates. So highly doubtful that Trump will win ALL NY delegates. As long as Cruz and Kasich are in the mix they don't have to win the state they just need to keep Trump from winning 53% of the delegates a state gives.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:19 AM
 
4,022 posts, read 1,850,529 times
Reputation: 3950
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beach Sportsfan View Post
Because you need 1237 and even New York which is a winner take all state is NOT based on state wide votes but by districts and you need 50% or more in each district to win all the districts delegates. So highly doubtful that Trump will win ALL NY delegates. As long as Cruz and Kasich are in the mix they don't have to win the state they just need to keep Trump from winning 53% of the delegates a state gives.

And yesterday that number was 57%.

And after the next round it will fall even more.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:21 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,920 posts, read 83,566,150 times
Reputation: 41739
Quote:
Originally Posted by bentlebee View Post
If it will contested and Trump will not get the nomination than it will be GOP as a dead party, RIP, and Trump will probably be backed by all his voters to run as an Independent and many voters will register as Independents and no longer as Republicans!
and if he gets it, there may very well be an attempt at a different party of some kind with a true conservative candidate. Yes, this will hurt the party's chances for the White House which is sad, but it will help with holding onto, at least one house.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:22 AM
 
7,311 posts, read 4,950,293 times
Reputation: 6337
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
As I reported earlier, if Trump wins these states, he wins nomination with comfortable margin.

If Trump takes
  • Arizona - WON
  • Wisconson
  • New York <-Winner Take Most
  • Delaware
  • Maryland
  • Pennsylvania
  • Indiana
  • California
  • New Jersey
He will end up with 1,296 delegates. Furthermore, as backup, The Trump states of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Washington are all Winner Take Most. And of course Trump will rack up proportional delegates and most likely will win a few more of the Winner take All states.

This is 53% of remaining delegates
Although I'd like to see that remaining percentage a little lower, this is very doable at this point.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:23 AM
 
2,744 posts, read 987,380 times
Reputation: 3203
Quote:
Originally Posted by chadgates View Post
And yesterday that number was 57%.

And after the next round it will fall even more.
Fine we shall see. Listen I don't like ANY of the current choices from both sides and I actually believe Cruz is the most dangerous choice for this country and will vote eventually for the one I THINK would do less damage to our country

All I'm saying is that until he gets to 1237 he hasn't won it and if for some reason he doesn't the party is stacking the deck against him.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:27 AM
 
44,940 posts, read 17,878,270 times
Reputation: 18852
Quote:
Originally Posted by daylux View Post
Although I'd like to see that remaining percentage a little lower, this is very doable at this point.
Indeed. Trump's detractors have yet to make a viable argument as to why it won't happen.
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Old 03-23-2016, 08:52 AM
 
1,812 posts, read 1,136,470 times
Reputation: 2411
This thing is a big problem for our country. Early on I was cheering for Trump, while always hoping that Cruz would get in the fast lane and pass him, winning the nomination. I am afraid that is not going to happen now. I am just about ready to get on board the Trump Train again. I would rather see Trump win the primary with 1237 than let those pieces of excrement manipulate the convention and put in someone.
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Old 03-23-2016, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,669 posts, read 33,671,635 times
Reputation: 51856
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTQ3000 View Post
From Harry Enten of 538:




Mick
538? Is that the Nate Silver site that has been getting everything wrong?
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Old 03-23-2016, 09:02 AM
 
2,464 posts, read 979,398 times
Reputation: 668
You guys do realize the GOP can easily change the rules a week before the convention and force a contested convention regardless.
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