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The numbers from Pennsylvania are truly shocking and suggest it might not even be competitive with Trump winning by a wide margin. First, let's look at 2008:
Ok, but when the general election comes around, more independents and moderates show up so we get more votes:
Obama: 3.3M
McCain: 2.7M
The Democrats end up with about 1M more votes in the general while the Republicans end up with nearly 2M more votes. Basically, independents/moderates who don't come out in the primary lean pretty far right.
So what happened this year?
In the primary:
Clinton: 919k
Sanders: 720k Total: 1.6M
Trump: 893k
Cruz: 340k
Kasich: 305k Total: 1.5M
Overall vote totals are nearly the same! In fact, the Democrats lost 700k voters in the primary while the Republicans GAINED 700k voters. Primary turnout wasn't any larger - they just moved to the right.
Once the independents/moderates show up (about 3M more votes), we are probably looking at a result something like:
Keep dreaming. PA hasn't voted Republican since 1988 and a buffoon like Trump certainly isn't going to change that. He has the highest unfavorables and is the most disliked politician in modern times, he's going to lose in an epic landslide in a general election.
Pennsylvania is largely a rust belt state and considering the fact that the GOP has abandoned the working class for decades, I can see voter turnout be high for Trump in PA.
Looking back..... it appears the Ivy Leaguers with all their polling were wrong. Obviously Pennsylvanian's believed that Hillary and the DC elite abandoned the working class. The parties have switched, Just like in a clique, Democrats are the in, rich Ivy league crowd with a bunch of wanna be's who wanna be in the in crowd and hope the elitists will throw a bone their way.
If we could give a trophy to the biggest loser who has been wrong in every post and every thread (and there were hundreds of them) from the beginning of this election cycle it would go to Dexter. I still think he was being paid by the Clinton election people to post here.
On April 22nd 2008, McCain carried Pennsylvania with 73% of the vote.
Even Trump's big victories aren't that impressive from a historical context.
As for the prediction--laughable. When are Trumpettes going to learn that primary turnout is a poor predictor of GE success? The last time Republicans carried Pennsylvania was 1988. George HW won with 50.7% of the vote and Dem turnout in the primaries was higher that year.
Raymond where are you?
You seem to have completely disappeared from the Elections forum.
You seem to have completely disappeared from the Elections forum.
He's still shocked that Lucy didn't pull the football away as one liberal commentator compared it to when referring to Republicans winning PA before the election.
How about enthusiasm for voting against the guy who wants to kick your parents, siblings, uncles, aunts and gramma out of the country? Or from Blacks who think Trump is a Klan member and will come for them after he gets done with his Mexicans? You don't want to even think about what will happen to the Republicans if the minorities in the country get scared enough to vote for once. Women are going to do more than roll their eyes like Mary Pat Christie. Oh, there is enthusiasm and there will be a record turnout. Turnout is no friend of Donald or the Republicans. Never was and it won't be any different this time.
Listen to what your party leaders are saying: Trump is going to lose by double digits and take the whole Republican party along for the ride down.
Keep dreaming. PA hasn't voted Republican since 1988 and a buffoon like Trump certainly isn't going to change that. He has the highest unfavorables and is the most disliked politician in modern times, he's going to lose in an epic landslide in a general election.
In case it got lost in the detour, as I pointed out, 2008 had record high Dem primary turnout. Dem general election voters will go up compared to the primary just like they did in 2004. There is no GOP advantage here.
You sure about that?
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it appears the Ivy Leaguers with all their polling were wrong. Obviously Pennsylvanian's believed that Hillary and the DC elite abandoned the working class. The parties have switched, Just like in a clique, Democrats are the in, rich Ivy league crowd with a bunch of wanna be's who wanna be in the in crowd and hope the elitists will throw a bone their way.
