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Would anybody care to provide the actual raw data of those polled in the "exit polls"? I have yet to see ANY raw data numbers and I am not prone to being blindly led by either a Messianic Proselytizer nor the MSM.How many people were polled, for example? Does anybody have any raw data to review?
I, too, can throw out random numbers.
Here's one: 99.5% of Obama supporters have their heads shoved in a warm, dark place. :-)
Would anybody care to provide the actual raw data of those polled in the "exit polls"? I have yet to see ANY raw data numbers and I am not prone to being blindly led by either a Messianic Proselytizer nor the MSM.How many people were polled, for example? Does anybody have any raw data to review?
I, too, can throw out random numbers.
Here's one: 99.5% of Obama supporters have their heads shoved in a warm, dark place. :-)
However, Obama also edged Clinton -- 52-47 -- among voters over 60 in Virginia and 50 percent of those voters in Maryland, compared with 46 percent for Clinton.
Last edited by Marka; 02-19-2008 at 08:34 AM..
Reason: copyright issues
Would anybody care to provide the actual raw data of those polled in the "exit polls"? I have yet to see ANY raw data numbers and I am not prone to being blindly led by either a Messianic Proselytizer nor the MSM.How many people were polled, for example? Does anybody have any raw data to review?
I, too, can throw out random numbers.
Here's one: 99.5% of Obama supporters have their heads shoved in a warm, dark place. :-)
If you had cable, YOU WOULDN'T BE ASKING FOR THIS. Must be one of those people in the rural areas with dial up internet.
Thank you. First of all, CNN also said that she is still ahead with White women, and that their figure of Obama beating Hillary with 59% of the women's vote includes Black Women. The black vote is clearly gone from Hillary's base, and never to return. That figure alone skews the landscape dramatically.
In VA, 970,393 people voted in the Democratic Primary. The exit poll conducted by CNN sampled 1246 people. That amounts to 0.001% of the total votes cast in VA.
In MD, 745,078 people voted in the Democratic Primary. The exit poll conducted by CNN sampled 1245 people.That amounts to 0.0016% of the total votes cast in MD.
So, by these figures, based on less than 1% of the votes cast, you can safely assume that Hillary's base has been eroded on a massive scale?
WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton's crushing losses in Maryland and Virginia highlight an erosion in what had been solid advantages among women, whites and older and working-class voters. While this week's results can be explained by those states' relatively large numbers of blacks and well-educated residents - who tend to be Barack Obama supporters - her presidential campaign could be doomed if the trends continue.
Don't forget he won the latino vote in virginia by about 10 to 12 points over hillary. But that is impressive to overtake white women, and blue collar whites which is hillary's majority voting block. I don't think him winning maryland was a shock to me especially since there are alot of wealthy and upper middle class blacks in prince george county.
Thank you. First of all, CNN also said that she is still ahead with White women, and that their figure of Obama beating Hillary with 59% of the women's vote includes Black Women. The black vote is clearly gone from Hillary's base, and never to return. That figure alone skews the landscape dramatically.
In VA, 970,393 people voted in the Democratic Primary. The exit poll conducted by CNN sampled 1246 people. That amounts to 0.001% of the total votes cast in VA.
In MD, 745,078 people voted in the Democratic Primary. The exit poll conducted by CNN sampled 1245 people.That amounts to 0.0016% of the total votes cast in MD.
So, by these figures, based on less than 1% of the votes cast, you can safely assume that Hillary's base has been eroded on a massive scale?
Exit polls are what they are. Generally people who don't like the results complain. However just the overall vote totals, the size of the victories, should tell you that Obama's coalition is broadening at the expense of Hillary Clinton.
Don't forget he won the latino vote in virginia by about 10 to 12 points over hillary. But that is impressive to overtake white women, and blue collar whites which is hillary's majority voting block. I don't think him winning maryland was a shock to me especially since there are alot of wealthy and upper middle class blacks in prince george county.
He did NOT beat Hillary amongst White Women. Obama sweeps Maryland, Va., D.C. - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com
"Interviews with voters leaving the polls showed Obama split the white vote with Clinton in Virginia, though she won it by 10 percentage points in Maryland. She won a majority of white women in both states, though by less than she is accustomed to. He won among white men in Virginia, and they split that vote in Maryland
In VA, 970,393 people voted in the Democratic Primary. The exit poll conducted by CNN sampled 1246 people. That amounts to 0.001% of the total votes cast in VA.
In MD, 745,078 people voted in the Democratic Primary. The exit poll conducted by CNN sampled 1245 people.That amounts to 0.0016% of the total votes cast in MD.
So, by these figures, based on less than 1% of the votes cast, you can safely assume that Hillary's base has been eroded on a massive scale?
It is obvious from your comments that you don't understand statistics.
You can't possibly sample all the voters. If you did that, it would not be a survey anymore but the actual election itself. In a survey, you only need to get a random sample of voters. Based on that sample, you can extrapolate results to the whole population with a high degree of accuracy (within the margin of error).
Exit polls are what they are. Generally people who don't like the results complain. However just the overall vote totals, the size of the victories, should tell you that Obama's coalition is broadening at the expense of Hillary Clinton.
Yes, exit polls are indeed what they are. However, CNN seems to think they are infallibile and the be-all-end-all of prognosticators. They, like any other "random" statistic can be and usually are based on the fact that there is no control group utilized.
I cannot argue that VA was disappointing. What I am saying is, in order to understand exit polls, you must look at the actual raw data, and not the %'s that they throw around to determine any significance. Even then, when you are dealing with less than 1/10 of 1% of the actual voters, you can't even begin to make the assertions that CNN is making.
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