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Old 02-14-2008, 10:14 AM
BVH
 
Location: Pennsylvania
944 posts, read 465,581 times
Reputation: 79

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf View Post
It is obvious from your comments that you don't understand statistics.

You can't possibly sample all the voters. If you did that, it would not be a survey anymore but the actual election itself. In a survey, you only need to get a random sample of voters. Based on that sample, you can extrapolate results to the whole population with a high degree of accuracy (within the margin of error).
I realize that. And no, admittedly I am not a statistician. What you are failing to grasp is that statistics can be and often are used to create the desired outcome. For example: "9 out of 10 doctor's agree...." Also, bear in mind that each state is it's own microcosm with it's own particular "idiosyncracies". For example, VA is a "red" state with much higher income levels than say, PA is. When the demographics change, so do the statistics.That's my point.

If Hillary's base has eroded so dramatically, why is she still leading by over 20% in TX, OH and PA?
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,208 posts, read 8,368,460 times
Reputation: 1892
Quote:
Originally Posted by BVH View Post

If Hillary's base has eroded so dramatically, why is she still leading by over 20% in TX, OH and PA?
Newest Rasmussen tracking poll has her lead down to 14% in Ohio, while Obama leads in Wisc. Also the last poll I saw on Texas showed her lead down to 10%.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA
1,773 posts, read 2,546,764 times
Reputation: 213
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf View Post
It is obvious from your comments that you don't understand statistics.

You can't possibly sample all the voters. If you did that, it would not be a survey anymore but the actual election itself. In a survey, you only need to get a random sample of voters. Based on that sample, you can extrapolate results to the whole population with a high degree of accuracy (within the margin of error).
Hey ! Hillary supporters will argue every bit of details on this forum. I have read a couple of posts and just plain agree that all they [Hillary] supporter seem to be a lot more UNEDUCATED and perhaps from rural area. It's kinda hard for one to understand statistics if all they have is a GED
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,208 posts, read 8,368,460 times
Reputation: 1892
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnestorr View Post
Hey ! Hillary supporters will argue every bit of details on this forum. I have read a couple of posts and just plain agree that all they [Hillary] supporter seem to be a lot more UNEDUCATED and perhaps from rural area. It's kinda hard for one to understand statistics if all they have is a GED
Hey, I live in a rural area and I support Obama. In fact, our local caucus last week went heavily for Obama. It's also an incorrect stereotype that residents of rural areas are uneducated.
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:27 AM
BVH
 
Location: Pennsylvania
944 posts, read 465,581 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Newest Rasmussen tracking poll has her lead down to 14% in Ohio, while Obama leads in Wisc. Also the last poll I saw on Texas showed her lead down to 10%.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.
Haven't we learned valuable lessons about Poll Accuracy this election? As you review these latest polls, go to real clear politics and see where each of the polls ended up in the last votes. For example, Rasmussen was off by nearly 10% in New Hampshire:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/newre...eply&p=2825910
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,208 posts, read 8,368,460 times
Reputation: 1892
Quote:
Originally Posted by BVH View Post
Haven't we learned valuable lessons about Poll Accuracy this election? As you review these latest polls, go to real clear politics and see where each of the polls ended up in the last votes. For example, Rasmussen was off by nearly 10% in New Hampshire:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/newre...eply&p=2825910
You better hope this poll is inaccurate as well. It shows Obama leading Clinton by 12% nationally. Superdelegates look at this.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history - broken link)
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:31 AM
 
4,182 posts, read 5,789,637 times
Reputation: 1720
Quote:
Haven't we learned valuable lessons about Poll Accuracy this election? As you review these latest polls, go to real clear politics and see where each of the polls ended up in the last votes. For example, Rasmussen was off by nearly 10% in New Hampshire:
You have to look at the trends, though. The trend is not Hillary's friend. In New Hampshire, she only won by 2% over Obama, which is a statistical tie. And they were awarded the same number of delegates (9 delegates apiece).
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:37 AM
BVH
 
Location: Pennsylvania
944 posts, read 465,581 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndfmnlf View Post
You have to look at the trends, though. The trend is not Hillary's friend. In New Hampshire, she only won by 2% over Obama, which is a statistical tie. And they were awarded the same number of delegates (9 delegates apiece).
I agree. The trend isn't in Hillary's favor. However, new Polls in both OH and PA show that she has a significant lead over Obama.
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:39 AM
BVH
 
Location: Pennsylvania
944 posts, read 465,581 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
You better hope this poll is inaccurate as well. It shows Obama leading Clinton by 12% nationally. Superdelegates look at this.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history - broken link)
True enough. However, The superdelegates also have MUCH more "inside info" than we do. That cannot be discounted either. The bottom line is, if she bottoms out in TX, OH and PA, it's over. If she doesn't, it isn't. It will be a very tense few weeks for us political junkies.
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Old 02-14-2008, 10:41 AM
BVH
 
Location: Pennsylvania
944 posts, read 465,581 times
Reputation: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnestorr View Post
Hey ! Hillary supporters will argue every bit of details on this forum. I have read a couple of posts and just plain agree that all they [Hillary] supporter seem to be a lot more UNEDUCATED and perhaps from rural area. It's kinda hard for one to understand statistics if all they have is a GED
Perhaps you should review your own grasp of the English language before casting stones.
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