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Old 05-18-2016, 01:53 PM
 
455 posts, read 281,206 times
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I think in this cycle Sanders is a better opponent vs Trump than Hillary.

Hillary isnt going to drive anyone to the polls.

I still think she probably wins unless Trump can get a big chunk of that minority vote that he isn't getting now. As others have said, he isn't going to win with just white males.

Clinton has the better organization, the better ground game. The country also leans more left than rightr and the youth and minority vote are traditionally heavy dem.

As I said, I don't really see how Trump wins unless he takes a sizable chunk of the minority vote.

 
Old 05-18-2016, 02:11 PM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,313,835 times
Reputation: 1395
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Pollsters. Hahaha.
They show Oregon +15 for Clinton.
Oregon Results
  • Sanders 54.5%
  • Clinton 45.5%
That was ONE poll from a local news channel out in Oregon, not a reputable pollster. No one really believed that anyways.
 
Old 05-18-2016, 02:24 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
2,348 posts, read 1,890,720 times
Reputation: 1104
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaguars010 View Post
I think in this cycle Sanders is a better opponent vs Trump than Hillary.

Hillary isnt going to drive anyone to the polls.

I still think she probably wins unless Trump can get a big chunk of that minority vote that he isn't getting now. As others have said, he isn't going to win with just white males.

Clinton has the better organization, the better ground game. The country also leans more left than rightr and the youth and minority vote are traditionally heavy dem.

As I said, I don't really see how Trump wins unless he takes a sizable chunk of the minority vote.
Hillary isn't going to drive anybody to the polls but Trump will....both for and against him.
 
Old 05-18-2016, 02:42 PM
 
17,264 posts, read 11,085,176 times
Reputation: 40516
Trump will most likely take a huge chunk away of the blue collar middle class voters that usually vote for democrats. Trump doesn't need a sizable chunk of the minority vote. The Black vote will probably go 90-93 percent for Hillary. No shocker there. Trump is already polling better with Hispanics than Romney did in the last election. He doesn't need a huge amount of Hispanics to vote for him. Don't forget the national election is not a popular vote. It comes down to the electoral college. The state with the largest Hispanic community is CA which will of course vote for Hillary regardless of what Hispanics do one way or another, therefore it doesn't really matter. Trump has a very good chance at winning states like Ohio, Penn, the blue collar states. The Hispanic percentage in these states is negligible.
 
Old 05-18-2016, 02:54 PM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,313,835 times
Reputation: 1395
Quote:
Originally Posted by marino760 View Post
Trump will most likely take a huge chunk away of the blue collar middle class voters that usually vote for democrats. Trump doesn't need a sizable chunk of the minority vote. The Black vote will probably go 90-93 percent for Hillary. No shocker there. Trump is already polling better with Hispanics than Romney did in the last election. He doesn't need a huge amount of Hispanics to vote for him. Don't forget the national election is not a popular vote. It comes down to the electoral college. The state with the largest Hispanic community is CA which will of course vote for Hillary regardless of what Hispanics do one way or another, therefore it doesn't really matter. Trump has a very good chance at winning states like Ohio, Penn, the blue collar states. The Hispanic percentage in these states is negligible.
Yes he does. This is going to be the most racially diverse election in US history, analysts are saying you need about 40% of the minority vote to win this year, and he's doing historically bad among minorities. Romney easily won the white vote 59-39 in 2012 and still got crushed 332-206. Even if Trump won a record percentage of whites, like 65%, he will still get buried because there is no way he's getting any sizable chunk of minorities to vote for him.
 
Old 05-18-2016, 03:08 PM
 
52,433 posts, read 26,381,669 times
Reputation: 21092
Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
...., analysts are saying you need about 40% of the minority vote to win this year, .....
What Analysts?
 
Old 05-18-2016, 03:13 PM
 
17,264 posts, read 11,085,176 times
Reputation: 40516
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
What Analysts?
Once again Dexter is just throwing things out there that he probably hears while waiting in line at the super market. No candidate needs 40 percent of the minority vote to win a national election. Maybe he's including women's votes although women certainly are not a minority.
 
Old 05-18-2016, 03:15 PM
 
52,433 posts, read 26,381,669 times
Reputation: 21092
Indeed. The word "analysts" is a dead give away.
 
Old 05-18-2016, 03:23 PM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,313,835 times
Reputation: 1395
I shouldn't bother because you wont actually READ it. I seriously doubt you'll even click on it. Trump followers prefer to keep their heads buried in the sand rather than face facts and reality, but I digress. Let me know if you guys need any more, Ive got plenty

GOP Nominee Needs 64 percent of the White Vote and 30 percent of the Non-White Vote to Win in '16 | RedState
Demographics Explain the Likely Outcomes in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election - CityLab
2016 electorate will be the most diverse in U.S. history | Pew Research Center
 
Old 05-18-2016, 03:26 PM
 
Location: NJ/NY
18,415 posts, read 15,116,676 times
Reputation: 14258
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
There are more than a few reasons that poll results can and should be altogether suspect, especially as we recognize there is "foul play" involved on an ongoing basis from all directions. Here again, I don't know how Americans will fair in this new "information age" when there is so much information to consider and so much not worthy of consideration! How to separate the "wheat from the crap" even for the more savvy follower of politics is challenge enough. What of the millions of Americans that don't know a Trump from a stump? Not to mention all the other millions who could care less? One really has to wonder...
A lot of people don't even vote, so I would like to think that most of those are the ones who don't know who Trump is, as well as the ones who could care less.

I also like how the CD pundits on both sides, seem to know for a fact who is going to win in November. I can only think that they are younger, and haven't seen that many elections. Anything can happen over the next 6 months. Either candidate can screw things up pretty badly, or hit a few home runs. Trump may bomb the debates, Hillary may have a few more coal-miner moments. Though I didn't support Obama, I was fairly certain he would win both times, but this election is too unpredictable and it is far too early.
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