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Old 05-13-2016, 02:44 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
...and fivethirtyeight is an entertainment website that just happens to feature politics which is a massive difference from RCP
RCP had Trump at less than 5% chance, you're grasping at straws..
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
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Old 05-13-2016, 03:58 PM
 
2,365 posts, read 1,117,381 times
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I do think this is going to be a very low turnout in November.
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Old 05-13-2016, 04:06 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobisinthehouse View Post
I do think this is going to be a very low turnout in November.
Or a very high one as people turn out to vote against the other candidate..

it'll be one, or the other for sure...
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Old 05-13-2016, 04:24 PM
 
3,904 posts, read 1,721,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
RCP had Trump at less than 5% chance, you're grasping at straws..
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination
You clearly dont understand how RCP works lol. They just take existing polls and post them. Trump pulled ahead of Bush last July in the polls, just like it shows there and he lead ever since...so whats your point?
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Old 05-13-2016, 04:58 PM
 
Location: A house
617 posts, read 269,609 times
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President Trump, dexy, show some respect.

Turnout is going to be epic as President Trump demolishes crooked clinkton.
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Old 05-13-2016, 05:15 PM
 
Location: Jamestown, NY
7,841 posts, read 7,293,414 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaguars010 View Post
the majority of those 11 million votes were by those on the left and independents.

the true base, the gop base, voted cruz in the 2016 primaries, not trump.

trump won in open primaries which isnt bad for the general since you can vote for anyone.

the problem is the base wont be there for him and he wont have enough dems and independents to get him in.
BINGO! If the Republican base stays home, and an awful lot of them likely will, not only will Trump lose the election but the Republicans will lose Congress. That's the real impetus behind the conservative third party rumblings ... to get the Republican base to come out for the Congressional races.
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Old 05-13-2016, 06:20 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
You clearly dont understand how RCP works lol. They just take existing polls and post them. Trump pulled ahead of Bush last July in the polls, just like it shows there and he lead ever since...so whats your point?
Oh I very well understood that Trump started in the average poll, UNDER 5.. The link shows it.

So I'm not sure why you're arguing about it.
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Old 05-13-2016, 06:22 PM
 
69,372 posts, read 55,339,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Linda_d View Post
BINGO! If the Republican base stays home, and an awful lot of them likely will, not only will Trump lose the election but the Republicans will lose Congress. That's the real impetus behind the conservative third party rumblings ... to get the Republican base to come out for the Congressional races.
Given Clinton is the alternative, I'm not sure why you believe the Republican base will stay home

Any other candidate, I would have agreed with that, but not Clinton
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Old 05-13-2016, 07:16 PM
 
5,382 posts, read 2,185,560 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaguars010 View Post
the majority of those 11 million votes were by those on the left and independents.

the true base, the gop base, voted cruz in the 2016 primaries, not trump.

trump won in open primaries which isnt bad for the general since you can vote for anyone.

the problem is the base wont be there for him and he wont have enough dems and independents to get him in.
And Cruz won nearly ever caucus, because they were made up of majority republicans.

Moderator cut: no manual signatures, please

Last edited by Marka; 05-22-2016 at 02:42 AM..
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Old 05-13-2016, 08:32 PM
 
3,904 posts, read 1,721,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Oh I very well understood that Trump started in the average poll, UNDER 5.. The link shows it.

So I'm not sure why you're arguing about it.
RCP wasn't wrong as you claimed. They weren't giving him a 5% chance to win. Those were his poll numbers back then. RCP doesn't predict anything like fivethirtyeight, they aren't an entertainment website
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