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Old 05-13-2016, 12:44 PM
 
Location: NJ
23,541 posts, read 17,219,108 times
Reputation: 17573

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
As of the most recent Gallup poll last month, 25% of Americans identified as Republicans. Trump only had about 40-45% of the Republican vote. Im no mathematician, but thats around 9% support of the general electorate. His supporters need to stop pretending he has some huge support base, thats a TINY percentage of the general electorate lol
forget the polls, belive your eyes


if polls were accurate and unbiased there would be no need for elections


Trump will easily win if HRC is his opponent, however, I think it will be Biden and Warren at the very last minute.


All the laser directed research the repubs customized to Hillary recepors will be ineffective against B & W.


Hope the repubs are prepared for the big switch.
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Old 05-13-2016, 12:46 PM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,338,644 times
Reputation: 1395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kracer View Post
forget the polls, belive your eyes


if polls were accurate and unbiased there would be no need for elections


Trump will easily win if HRC is his opponent, however, I think it will be Biden and Warren at the very last minute.


All the laser directed research the repubs customized to Hillary recepors will be ineffective against B & W.


Hope the repubs are prepared for the big switch.
Actually, they have been deadly accurate this year. At least on the GOP side. They had Trump leading in pretty much every state he won. They were only off on ONE of the 43 races...
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:10 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,096,009 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
Oh, this excuse again? Most of the 16 dropped out before we even got to the serious voting, and there were 3 others running against Hillary, not just 1. nice try though
so 16 vs 4.. and you think thats the same despite being 400% more.. hahaha
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:11 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,096,009 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
Actually, they have been deadly accurate this year. At least on the GOP side. They had Trump leading in pretty much every state he won. They were only off on ONE of the 43 races...
I believe Nate Silver gave Trump a 5% chance of being the nominee..
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Pasadena, CA
9,828 posts, read 9,413,273 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
so 16 vs 4.. and you think thats the same despite being 400% more.. hahaha
Trump never faced 16 candidates in the primaries.
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,771 posts, read 104,711,350 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Trump had 8 times more Republican competitors than Hillary had when the respective parties started...Trump almost getting as many votes as Hillary when he had 8 times more competitors is very impressive. Latest poll has Trump and Hillary within 1 point of each other.
Actually the majority or maybe all the experts say, without the large field he would have gotten less support, plus come on; 16 competitors? A lot had dropped out before the primaries got underway or shortly after. He only had 5 or 6 that got any support. Take your latest poll, enjoy what you think as a good sign, but keep an open mind about polls. You are siting one polls, check about 3 or 4 others in the past few days.

BTW, for those who think the only anti Trump people posting here are libs or will not support Trump, think again. I know, I for one, unless something changes will be voting for him. The exception would be a good solid conservative I could support. If the party runs an acceptable candidate we can start calling Hillary Madam president either way, so I might as well vote my head.
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:25 PM
 
Location: North America
14,204 posts, read 12,277,553 times
Reputation: 5565
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Trump had 8 times more Republican competitors than Hillary had when the respective parties started...Trump almost getting as many votes as Hillary when he had 8 times more competitors is very impressive. Latest poll has Trump and Hillary within 1 point of each other.
No, the latest has them off by 2. However the poll also used data from the last election which had minorities and whites at lower/higher levels than they are supposed to be. The majority of the polls right now have her ahead by an average of 6.5 points. Of course none of those polls matter anyway. It's 6 months till the election and a lot of things can happen between now and then.
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:48 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,096,009 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
No, the latest has them off by 2. However the poll also used data from the last election which had minorities and whites at lower/higher levels than they are supposed to be. The majority of the polls right now have her ahead by an average of 6.5 points. Of course none of those polls matter anyway. It's 6 months till the election and a lot of things can happen between now and then.
July, Clinton was up by +20, 53 to 23...

so only off by 2, would put them pretty much neck and neck.

That being said, polls are useless the current methodology, since they dont break them out by states., which is how elections really occur. Its not a popular vote
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:52 PM
 
Location: Planet Telex
5,897 posts, read 3,897,517 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UB50 View Post
I was just listening to CNN. Trump has gotten 11 million votes. You need 65 to 70 million votes to be President. He's a long way off.
But that's not including the Hispanic, African Ameican, millennial, and woman vote which he says he will also get.
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Old 05-13-2016, 01:55 PM
 
4,078 posts, read 2,338,644 times
Reputation: 1395
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
I believe Nate Silver gave Trump a 5% chance of being the nominee..
...and fivethirtyeight is an entertainment website that just happens to feature politics which is a massive difference from RCP
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