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Old 05-14-2016, 06:55 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,109,215 times
Reputation: 5547

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Quote:
Originally Posted by emanresu1 View Post
California is a winner takes all state. It's a closed primary. HRC is leading in every poll...some by close to 20%.

See ya, Bern. You done.
Democrats don't have winner take all states.
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Old 05-14-2016, 07:04 AM
 
1,684 posts, read 410,716 times
Reputation: 1578
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
Democrats don't have winner take all states.
I was thinking about how the R's do it...winner takes all by district in Calif.

Actually, she goes over the magic number on June 7th in any case...

READ HERE IF INTERESTED...
(the math is clear)
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...alculator.html
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Old 05-14-2016, 07:06 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,109,215 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by emanresu1 View Post
I was thinking about how the R's do it...winner takes all by district in Calif.

Actually, she goes over the magic number on June 7th in any case...

READ HERE IF INTERESTED...
(the math is clear)
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...alculator.html
If the polling in Oregon is correct she might even be there before then as well. She will at any case be above 2300 delegates on June 7th. Decent margins in KY, OR, PR along with additional super delegates might give her the victory before that date.
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Old 05-14-2016, 07:30 AM
 
Location: Central Florida
2,063 posts, read 1,867,301 times
Reputation: 1918
Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
Your link re: Nate Silver says that he forecast that Bernie would win Nevada, not that he would win the nomination. As it turns out, he was wrong about that, and Hillary won Nevada. Or rather, he would have been wrong if his forecast wasn't dynamic and it kept changing until the final forecast just before the caucus when he correctly forecast Hillary's win.

and for the record, Nate Silver is not a pollster - that would mean that he designs and conducts polls. He doesn't do that. He has a statistical model that takes all the available polls into consideration and then generates a forecast based on the totality of the information. He's actually been less accurate this year than in 2008 but he's also been running a separate demographic model which seems to be more accurate, and I would guess that in the next cycle, he will be incorporating that into his predictive models.

Your second link is a college student preference poll. It does not seem it will be accurate this year.

Your third link is an opinion piece written by an extremely partisan Bernie supporter who inaccurately predicted that Bernie would win the first 4 contests. He was only 25% correct on that one.

There will not be a contested convention, because Hillary will have more than the requisite number of delegates to be declared the Democratic nominee after the first ballot at the convention.
Sorry let me find another article. I know Nate Silver did predict Bernie Sanders will win. Do you disagree that Bernie Sanders is more appealing to voters as a person than either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

Polling Expert Nate Silver Predicts Bernie Sanders Nomination
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Old 05-14-2016, 07:41 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,177 posts, read 11,785,778 times
Reputation: 32188
Click on the snopes link that is in the link you just posted.

Nate Silver Predicted a Bernie Sanders Nomination Win? : snopes.com
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Old 05-14-2016, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Texas
35,260 posts, read 19,292,205 times
Reputation: 20876
Default Can Bernie Sanders Still Win?

In a word: NO

I voted for Bern in March, knowing that he didn't have a chance. But his campaign is having an effect. He's raising issues that resonate with millions of Americans.
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Old 05-14-2016, 07:53 AM
 
1,684 posts, read 410,716 times
Reputation: 1578
PredictWise – PredictWise is for Informational Purposes only. (unbiased non-partisan) says 97% certainly of HRC being the nominee and 71% chance of being the next president of the U.S.

The only "horse race" to watch on that site is VP.

Gingrich has surged way ahead of Kasich and Christie in probability for the R side.

The D side not so clear cut:

2016 DEM VICE-PRESIDENT

Julian Castro
18 %
Tim Kaine
18 %
Elizabeth Warren
12 %
Bernie Sanders
10 %

and a bunch of others in single digits
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Old 05-14-2016, 08:07 AM
 
9,984 posts, read 6,764,101 times
Reputation: 5613
Bernie needs 65% of the combined primary votes
AND 155 of the superdelegates who have not marked
for Hillary AND his 40 AND 164 of Hillary's 524 marked Supers
to win.
Oddsmakers and academics estimate Bernie has only a
3-5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Odds on her being indicted by the Feds are at 33%,
which doesn't remove her from contention, if she is
indicted that would still be up to the party to decide
if they want her to be their nominee.
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Old 05-14-2016, 08:37 AM
 
4,194 posts, read 2,020,472 times
Reputation: 1768
Hillary Clinton is only about 140 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President.

Bernie Sanders is DOA, Hillary attention is focused on Donald Trump!
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Old 05-14-2016, 08:38 AM
 
8,805 posts, read 4,721,853 times
Reputation: 2030
Independent Sanders supporters need to register by March 23rd in Cali to win the State.

http://www.berniesandersvideo.com/wh...otinglocations

It's up to you California to make Bernie the nomination

We need the 7 million votes!

We can do this!
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