U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 05-14-2016, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Garden City, KS
179 posts, read 167,900 times
Reputation: 383

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
Omg, would you people please stop with this. There is not going to be a contested convention. A contested convention means that no candidate has the required amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination outright. She will have several hundred more delegates than needed after the primary process is over. I know what you are going to say next "Well super delegates don't vote until the primary so they aren't locked in". You would be right about that but then again NOBODY votes until the convention. Democratic pledged delegates aren't the same as GOP bound delegates. All the pledge is a written declaration of support. They are free to change their support at any time. Which means their vote doesn't count until the convention either. And since Bernie has effectively poached 0 of her delegates I think we can say without a doubt that he isn't likely going to be able to sway the 400-600 he would need to win the thing. So there will no be a contested convention unless Bernie pulls off a miracle.

Pledged Delegates Vs. “Bound” Delegates | TIME.com
Pretty much every news source, even the ones who own Hillary, now admit that it's extremely unlikely that Hillary will get the 2,383 pledged delegates she needs to win the nomination. A simple Google search will demonstrate that for you. Math will, too. Her only hope is, and has been, for Bernie to drop out, which he's clearly not doing.

So, prepare for a contested convention.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 05-14-2016, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,695 posts, read 33,709,656 times
Reputation: 51934
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanguardisle View Post
Months ago it was predicted by those who have never yet been wrong in their presidential predictions Nate Silver and Western Illinois University that Bernie Sanders would be the next president of the United States.
Too bad that Nate Silver fellow totally screwed up on his Republican primary predictions proving he's no better at picking winners than your mailman.

Nate Silver said Donald Trump had no shot. Where did he go wrong?

7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump | The Daily Caller

Nate Silver Explains How Everyone Got Trump Wrong | Vanity Fair

Then there is Nate Silver making excuses for why he was wrong:

Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump | FiveThirtyEight

You were probably more correct with your predictions and you didn't have any models. Go with your gut on Bernie.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 11:30 AM
 
8,821 posts, read 4,731,210 times
Reputation: 2031
It's mathematically impossible for Hillary to achieve the number of pledged delegates to win the nomination before the end of the Primary race. Only way she can is if she can win Cali by 250 or more and every other primary take in 25% of the delegates.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,185 posts, read 11,808,808 times
Reputation: 32199
Quote:
Originally Posted by High Plains Guy View Post
Pretty much every news source, even the ones who own Hillary, now admit that it's extremely unlikely that Hillary will get the 2,383 pledged delegates she needs to win the nomination. A simple Google search will demonstrate that for you. Math will, too. Her only hope is, and has been, for Bernie to drop out, which he's clearly not doing.

So, prepare for a contested convention.
This would be relevant if the standard were that you had to have 2383 PLEDGED delegates. You don't. You need 2383 from pledged and superdelegates combined, because it's 50% plus 1 of ALL delegates. In 2008, Obama did not have a majority of all delegates just going from pledged delegates (actual numbers were different because there are more delegates overall this time) and yet, still was the nominee.

It's only Bernie's desperation and the lies he and his campaign are telling that say it has to be 2383 pledged delegates. It does not. Hillary will have more than 2383 total delegates. She will also have more than 2026 pledged delegates - a majority of pledged delegates. Superdelegates who have already endorsed her will honor the will of the voters and cast their votes for her on the first ballot at the convention and Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President. They will not be handing Bernie a nomination that he has failed to secure by obtaining a majority of pledged delegates and of all delegates.

There will be no contested convention because there will be a nominee after the first ballot. The fact that votes have to actually be cast is a requirement and doesn't make it a contested convention.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Texas
35,283 posts, read 19,313,440 times
Reputation: 20913
NY was last month.

And she'll have way more than enough for the nomination before the 2nd week of June.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 11:35 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,185 posts, read 11,808,808 times
Reputation: 32199
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunD1987 View Post
Know we don't want to mention this but Independent Sanders run
Aside from the fact that this is logistically impossible - there are deadlines to file that he's already missed as well as sore loser laws in some states that would preclude him from being on the ballot, Bernie himself has stated many, many times that he will support the Democratic nominee, period.

Do you really think he has been lying about that? And if he has been lying, why would he be worthy of your vote?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 11:43 AM
 
8,821 posts, read 4,731,210 times
Reputation: 2031
Because he is the candiate for the people and not for the Party. Some said he could make it on to every 50 States ballots by joining a party and using donation money to meet the fee to be on the ballots. Other's said he is prepping to work on changing Congress up fro the inside if he loses.

I can see the latter. Can say vote for Hillary keep the Democrats strong I will shake up Congress this movement isn't over. In 8 year's we will complete what we set out to do with a changed Congess, a new PAC, and a President and VP that represents America not tied to corporations.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 11:56 AM
 
Location: Missoula, Mt
58 posts, read 34,557 times
Reputation: 57
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunD1987 View Post
It's mathematically impossible for Hillary to achieve the number of pledged delegates to win the nomination before the end of the Primary race. Only way she can is if she can win Cali by 250 or more and every other primary take in 25% of the delegates.
Hillary needs less than 150 more delegates to win. There are 475 available in California alone. She will end up with more than enough delegates.

If they didn't have the vote rigged from the beginning, where it looked like everyone was supporting her and Bernie didn't have a chance, then Bernie probably would have won. She also benefited by the early voting in the southern states which all went for her.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 12:48 PM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,116,370 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by High Plains Guy View Post
Pretty much every news source, even the ones who own Hillary, now admit that it's extremely unlikely that Hillary will get the 2,383 pledged delegates she needs to win the nomination. A simple Google search will demonstrate that for you. Math will, too. Her only hope is, and has been, for Bernie to drop out, which he's clearly not doing.

So, prepare for a contested convention.
She doesn't need pledged delegates my friend. All she needs is 2383 delegates to vote for her. You seem to have missed the point of my post. Bernie has convinced a total of zero delegates to switch to his side. So there is no reason to believe that he will be able to convinced 400-600 of them to switch to his side before the convention takes place. And this is assuming he doesn't throw his support behind her after the D.C. primaries, which he will likely do. A contested convention only takes place if no candidate gets to the convention floor with the delegates they need. If she gets there and her super delegates still are committed to backing her then she indeed has the nominated and the convention will not be contested.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 05-14-2016, 12:55 PM
 
2,211 posts, read 1,129,365 times
Reputation: 581
Look, so far Sanders has never demonstrated that he could win over Hillary by huge number of actual votes (which means huge margin for huge number of voters). Wisconsin was his best and that's it. I highly highly doubt he can win in California by landslide.

Top 20 states with victories by actual votes
01. Florida - Clinton +532k votes
02. Texas - Clinton +459k votes
03. Georgia - Clinton +329k votes
04. New York - Clinton +313k votes
05. Maryland - Clinton +251k votes
06. Alabama - Clinton +233k votes
07. Virginia - Clinton +228k votes
08. Pennsylvania - Clinton +200k votes
09. South Carolina - Clinton +175k votes
10. Ohio - Clinton +161k votes
11. North Carolina - Clinton +155k votes
12. Mississippi - Clinton +149k votes
13. Louisiana - Clinton +149k votes
14. Wisconsin - Sanders +137k votes
15. Tennessee - Clinton +125k votes
16. Washington - Sanders +111k votes (estimate)
17. Vermont - Sanders +98k votes
18. Arkansas - Clinton +79k votes
19. Arizona - Clinton +69k votes
20. New Hampshire - Sanders +57k votes
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:48 PM.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top