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These do not include Superdelegates,not including them as they can and do changed and aren't pledged until the Convention. We have a bunch of other threads also focused on Superdelegates, so if you want to argue about that, please do so thereI would like to try and keep this thread about the Pledged Delegates.
Each state tends to have different rules on how they award the Delegates. On the Democratic side they tend to be awarded proportionally on the state and Congressional District level (with some variations), with a floor needed in some states to get any delegates. On the Republican side its a mix, some proportionally, some without a floor, some with a floor, some winner take all, some winner take all at the state level, and again at the Congressional level, some with some combination of proportional or winner take all depending on the amount the candidate receives or proportional at state level and winner take all at Congressional level or vice versa..
Anyway here is where we pretty much stand now
Democrats
*Iowa
Clinton 22
Sanders 21
Too close to call 1
New Hampshire
Sanders 15
Clinton 9
*Nevada
Clinton 19
Sanders 15
Too Close to Call 1
Total
Sanders 51 (hard total 15)
Clinton 50 (hard total 9)
Too close to call 2
Please note, ony N.H has so far directly tied the delegates to the National Convention Iowa and Nevada have further county and state conventions to determine the exact delegate count. Those are determined by the delegates elected at the Caucus so we can pretty much estimate the totals (unless something major happens in the race).
As far as the too close to call's, in Iowa Clinton had a very slight edge for the state lead over Sanders, this one delegate hinges on that. Any slight change in the state totals, the O'Malley state delegates edging to Sanders could flip this one delegate. None of the other delegates are close enough to a delegate tipping point to flip at the later Conventions barring a major shift in the dynamic of the race. In Nevada CD-4 had 6 delegates, this was Clinton's best district and right now she is on the borderline of a 4-2 edge or a 3-3 tie in this district. The count is still being finalized, but either way it wiil likely wind up being very close, so this delegate could flip one way or the other at a very slight change at the county and state Convntions. None of the other delegates awarded were at that tipping point. So technically it could be Clinton 52-Sanders 51, Sanders 52-Clinton 51, or Sanders 53- Clinton 50, but 52-51 Sanders with 2 too close to call probably most accurately describes it at this point
After looking at a couple other sites, as well as seeing more of the data for CD-4 in Nevada, I think you can give that lest delegate to Clinton rather, so its 4-2 Clinton instead of it being 3-2 Clinton with 1 being too close to call as I previously predicted. Clinton's margin of county level delegates now appears to be 58.62-41.26 in the 4th. Slight changes may happen at later stages in the delegate process, but her lead is likely large enough that she will still keep a 4-2 advantage even with some slight shifts.
If anything with the counts happen to change I might revise my estimates, but at this point I think an estimate of 20 delegates for Clinton in Nevada and 15 for Sanders is fair. This moves the overall estimated pledged delegates to a 51-51 tie with 1 pledged delegate in Iowa still being too close to call.
Lol, I just wanted to add a bit of an explanation because I have seen some confusion over the delegate counts. I am going to try and keep this thread active throughout the process.
The GOP does not have superdelegates. In almost all cases delegates are assigned by the vote and can't change until after the first ballot. South Carolina is example enough of this. Trump won all 50 delegates which must stick with him until the first ballot. This includes the 3 RNC delegates.
Change in New Hampshire for the Republicans now with the certified results. Trump gains an 11th delegate at the expense of 1 for Rubio. Difference appears to be how the rounding rules were interpreted. So it now stands at
Please note 29 of the 30 delegates allocated are set in stone, but for the 30th delegate it is very close between Carson and Cruz. For now Carson has a very slight advantage in getting a 2nd delegate over Cruz getting a 7th, however a slight change in the numbers could Cruz a 7th delegate and knock Carson down to 1.
Not finalized as of yet, a delegate could swing one way or the other when its set and done, but South Carolina pretty much looks like is 39-14 Clinton. This makes the pledged delegate count as follows.
Clinton 90 (hard total 48)
Sanders 65 (hard total 29)
Too close to call 1
Democrats Alabama: Clinton 44, Sanders 9 America Samoa: Clinton 4, Sanders 2 Arkansas: Clinton 22, Sanders 10 Colorado: Clinton 28, Sanders 38 Georgia: Clinton 74, Sanders 28 Massachusetts: Clinton 46, Sanders 45 Minnesota: Clinton 31, Sanders 46 Oklahoma: Clinton 17, Sanders 21 Tennessee: Clinton 43, Sanders 24 Texas: Clinton 152, Sanders 70 Vermont: Clinton 0, Sanders 16 Virginia: Clinton 62, Sanders 33
Clinton 523, Sanders 342
Total Clinton 613 (hard total 543) Sanders 407 (hard total 333) Too Close To Call 1
*Iowa, Nevada and Colorado's delegates are finalized later in the process, estimates can be made based off Caucus night resukts
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