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Old 05-15-2016, 10:01 AM
 
26,371 posts, read 8,965,596 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
You present no evidence. Only opinion.
Is that your evidence ?
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:01 AM
 
32,532 posts, read 30,569,029 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
You present no evidence. Only opinion.
No evidence....only click bait.

Meanwhile...Trump still hasn't kept his promise and produced 100 black pastors who support him.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:09 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,079,487 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
You present no evidence. Only opinion.
There isn't any evidence is the issue. Just a bunch of fantasy saying that because Trump does well in rural white areas that he will appeal to Democrats as well. I don't see that taking place, because crossover voting has been declining for 30 years. The reality is it's more about demographics and how much you can win among them now than anything. Trump has to do epically well among white voters or their share of the electorate has to rise a bit this election. If he gets less among Hispanics than Romney did *W\which is very likely*, and does the same among blacks/asians then he loses. In fact even if you drop the black vote back to the historical 10 percent they have managed he still loses unless he gets around 64 percent of the white vote. Demographics make the GOPs path to the White House more and more difficult each election. However, on the flip side it makes it more likely for them to win in off election years.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:11 AM
 
44,474 posts, read 17,754,807 times
Reputation: 18698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
Trump needs to get Ronald Reagan 1984 numbers among white voters in order to pull this off. And that's assuming he doesn't have a large drop off among hispanics and asians as well.
Both candidates need the White vote. It's silly to suggest they don't.

As for Asians & Hispanics, the ones who are American citizens registered to vote, they are going with Trump in big numbers.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:19 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,079,487 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Both candidates need the White vote. It's silly to suggest they don't.

As for Asians & Hispanics, the ones who are American citizens registered to vote, they are going with Trump in big numbers.
Uh yeah okay. I think you can open the windows while you paint now. Clearly it's affecting your line of reasoning. The last time the Hispanics gave a GOP president a solid percentage of votes was in 2004. That was because George Bush took a very moderate inclusive stance towards them. I really can't foresee Trump who calls them rapists winning them over to him. The GOP has been losing the Asian vote since the 90's. I seriously don't think Trump is going to flip the 47 point gap that Romney faced in his favor. And even he was fairly moderate in his positions on them. I didn't say both candidates didn't need the white vote. However, it's more paramount for Trump because minorities vote for Democrats in large numbers, and the white share of the voting electorate declines every election. Trump has to do better among them to even get the same results that Romney did. That's assuming he keeps the same percentage among minorities that Romney did as well. I could easily see his numbers among Latinos dropping into the teens.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:26 AM
 
6,964 posts, read 2,485,899 times
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If the minority vote percentage that Trump receives in 2016 doesn't improve from the 17% that Romney received in 2012, Trump will need 65% of the non-Hispanic white vote to win the national popular vote.

That analysis is from Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Whit Ayres

Bush's combination of 58% of the N/H white vote and 26% of the minority vote wouldn't be enough to win in 2016.

Winning GOP combos for 2016:

59% white 30% minority
60% white 28% minority
61% white 26% minority
62% white 24% minority
63% white 21% minority
64% white 19% minority
65% white 17% minority

Recent History:

2012: Romney 59% white; 17% minority
2008: McCain 55% white; 19% minority
2004: Bush 58% white; 26% minority
Winning Democratic combos for 2016:

38% white; 77% minority
39% white; 75% minority
40% white; 73% minority
41% white; 70% minority
42% white; 68% minority

Recent History:

2012: Obama 39% white; 82% minority
2008: Obama 43% white; 81% minority
2004: Kerry 41% white; 73% minority

Whit Ayres: A Daunting Demographic Challenge for the GOP in 2016 - WSJ

https://www.amazon.com/2016-Beyond-R...s=books&sr=1-1


There is no indication that Donald Trump will do better among minority voters than Mitt Romney. To believe so is a matter of blind faith, rather than data analysis.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:29 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,079,487 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
If the minority vote percentage that Trump receives in 2016 doesn't improve from the 17% that Romney received in 2012, Trump will need 65% of the non-Hispanic white vote to win the national popular vote.

That analysis is from Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Whit Ayres

Bush's combination of 58% of the N/H white vote and 26% of the minority vote wouldn't be enough to win in 2016.

Winning GOP combos for 2016:

59% white 30% minority
60% white 28% minority
61% white 26% minority
62% white 24% minority
63% white 21% minority
64% white 19% minority
65% white 17% minority

Recent History:

2012: Romney 59% white; 17% minority
2008: McCain 55% white; 19% minority
2004: Bush 58% white; 26% minority
Winning Democratic combos for 2016:

38% white; 77% minority
39% white; 75% minority
40% white; 73% minority
41% white; 70% minority
42% white; 68% minority

Recent History:

2012: Obama 39% white; 82% minority
2008: Obama 43% white; 81% minority
2004: Kerry 41% white; 73% minority

Whit Ayres: A Daunting Demographic Challenge for the GOP in 2016 - WSJ

https://www.amazon.com/2016-Beyond-R...s=books&sr=1-1


There is no indication that Donald Trump will do better among minority voters than Mitt Romney. To believe so is a matter of blind faith, rather than data analysis.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:31 AM
 
44,474 posts, read 17,754,807 times
Reputation: 18698
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
I
There is no indication that Donald Trump will do better among minority voters than Mitt Romney. To believe so is a matter of blind faith, rather than data analysis.
By minority vote you mean the African American vote. Here's where you meme fails. The president isn't elected by the popular vote. The president is elected by the electoral college. It just so happens that most of the African American's in the USA live in states that will easily go Red anyway.

It's the the working class that decides the election. No president can win without this vote. It was true for Bush, it was true for Obama. They have abandoned the Democrats by wide margin and this is why Hillary is facing landslide losses.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:34 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,079,487 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
By minority vote you mean the African American vote. Here's where you meme fails. The president isn't elected by the popular vote. The president is elected by the electoral college. It just so happens that most of the African American's in the USA live in states that will easily go Red anyway.

It's the the working class that decides the election. No president can win without this vote. It was true for Bush, it was true for Obama. They have abandoned the Democrats by wide margin and this is why Hillary is facing landslide losses.
Yes, but in states such as VA,NC, and Fl they make up enough * along with the Latino populations * to sway the election. The white working class also declines by 2-3 percent every election. While the minority vote increases.
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Old 05-15-2016, 10:37 AM
 
44,474 posts, read 17,754,807 times
Reputation: 18698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
Yes, but in states such as VA,NC, and Fl they make up enough * along with the Latino populations * to sway the election.
Latinos support Trump, not Hillary. Furthermore if Hillary can't attract the White working class in NC & Fla, she is sunk. I'm calling it even in VA mostly due to NOVA and the federal workers there.

Her cavalier attitude to putting 10s of 1000s of workers, out of work, is severely hurting here in these states.
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