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Old 05-20-2016, 02:52 PM
 
17,750 posts, read 19,791,121 times
Reputation: 7418

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Quote:
Originally Posted by DC at the Ridge View Post
Not true.

If you got rid of the superdelegates altogether, then the number of delegates at the convention would drop to 4051. The new number to win the nomination, a majority of delegates, would be 2026. Hillary has 1771 delegates with no superdelegates. She would only need 225 of the remaining non-super delegates to reach that number. Bernie would need 527 of the remaining 781 delegates in order to win Since the primaries are proportional, the chances of Bernie winning 67.5 % of all the remaining delegates is virtually nil.

The superdelegates haven't changed the outcome of this race. They simply cement what the majority of Democrats want.
You need 2382 Delegates to win... Hillary has 1768 pledged delegates... that means she needs 614 pledge delegates to win... there are ONLY 775 PLEDGED delegates left... that means she has to win 83% of the remaining delegates which is NOT going to happen... she can get as many superdelegates to put her over the top but on PLEDGED delegates alone, she isn't going to get to that number... she NEEDS the supperdelegates and should the superdelegates all go to Bernie then he would win... it all comes down to the final PLEDGED delegate count... Go Bernie!
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Old 05-20-2016, 02:53 PM
 
40,104 posts, read 24,345,620 times
Reputation: 12619
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2e1m5a View Post
More like they mold what the majority of Democrats want, with the option to go against it if they see fit.
Not really.

2008 shows us that. Obama was an unknown, and Hillary was the favorite, then, too.

2016 is a different election. O'Malley was not a strong contender. Sanders gained traction, but not really with registered Democrats. The majority of his support came from Independents. The exit polls verify this. Which is great, because you want Independents involved and invested in the process. But this is still the Democratic Party nomination. Not the Independent nomination. The majority of Clinton's support came from registered Democrats. They didn't support Sanders. They supported Clinton.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:01 PM
 
40,104 posts, read 24,345,620 times
Reputation: 12619
Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
You need 2382 Delegates to win... Hillary has 1768 pledged delegates... that means she needs 614 pledge delegates to win... there are ONLY 775 PLEDGED delegates left... that means she has to win 83% of the remaining delegates which is NOT going to happen... she can get as many superdelegates to put her over the top but on PLEDGED delegates alone, she isn't going to get to that number... she NEEDS the supperdelegates and should the superdelegates all go to Bernie then he would win... it all comes down to the final PLEDGED delegate count... Go Bernie!
You need 2383 delegates to win when you include the superdelegates. Hillary has 2275 delegates, when you include the superdelegates. There are 781 non-super delegates left.

Your problem is that if you take out the 712 super delegates, didn't have them at the convention at all, didn't include them in any delegate counts, Hillary would still win, because then the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, the majority, 50% + 1, would be 2026. And she already has 1771. She'd only need 225 delegates to win that majority, which is just slightly over 11%.

Of course, the superdelegates won't be left out. But the argument that she NEEDS them is mistaken. She has won by EVERY measure.

While I understand your math games, no matter how you look at it, Hillary wins the nomination.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:04 PM
 
Location: Louisiana
7,490 posts, read 4,245,351 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kefir King View Post
To quote Judge Sol Wachtler: "You can indict a ham sandwich."
True. But the FBI doesn't investigate too many ham sammiches.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:08 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,162 posts, read 11,768,218 times
Reputation: 32157
Quote:
Originally Posted by DC at the Ridge View Post
You need 2383 delegates to win when you include the superdelegates. Hillary has 2275 delegates, when you include the superdelegates. There are 781 non-super delegates left.

Your problem is that if you take out the 712 super delegates, didn't have them at the convention at all, didn't include them in any delegate counts, Hillary would still win, because then the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, the majority, 50% + 1, would be 2026. And she already has 1771. She'd only need 225 delegates to win that majority, which is just slightly over 11%.

Of course, the superdelegates won't be left out. But the argument that she NEEDS them is mistaken. She has won by EVERY measure.

While I understand your math games, no matter how you look at it, Hillary wins the nomination.
Yep. I've lost track of the times I've tried to explain that if you don't include the superdelegates, then you can't demand that Hillary gets more than 50% of the delegates including the superdelegates.

I really had no idea that Bernie Math was so pervasive because that's the only place that standard comes from. But they continue to insist that superdelegates only count when they are for Bernie and they don't count for Hillary, except that they do count for the total number of delegates she's supposed to have - but to which her superdelegates cannot be applied to.
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Old 05-21-2016, 12:33 AM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,798 posts, read 26,200,766 times
Reputation: 14611
Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter75 View Post
Hillary is up 298 pledged delegates and only needs 60% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. Bernie needs 102% which is obviously mathematically impossible. All the Trump followers were crying for Cruz to drop out in the same situation, where are the cries for Bernie to drop out? I understand there are SuperDelegates but Bernie and his fans are dreaming if they think they are getting a large number of them to move over to him. Its over, finished, done. Time to drop out and get on with it.
Unfavorable s for Clinton and Trump are so high, he figures he still has a chance especially if Clinton is hauled off by the FBI. Besides it gives his followers a voice at the convention.
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Old 05-21-2016, 02:28 AM
 
Location: Washington State
18,464 posts, read 9,561,235 times
Reputation: 15753
I think he's counting on a Hillary indictment and the Dems just picking him.
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Old 05-21-2016, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
21,472 posts, read 28,343,153 times
Reputation: 9749
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speleothem View Post
True. But the FBI doesn't investigate too many ham sammiches.
The Hell they don't.
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Old 05-21-2016, 07:00 AM
 
38 posts, read 13,610 times
Reputation: 19
Bernie says he wants everyone to have a chance to vote. That's fine, but we know that he could suspend his campaign and his supporters can still vote for him at the remaining primaries. But that's not really it, is it?
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Old 05-21-2016, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Manhattan
21,472 posts, read 28,343,153 times
Reputation: 9749
Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
You need 2382 Delegates to win... Hillary has 1768 pledged delegates... that means she needs 614 pledge delegates to win... there are ONLY 775 PLEDGED delegates left... that means she has to win 83% of the remaining delegates which is NOT going to happen... she can get as many superdelegates to put her over the top but on PLEDGED delegates alone, she isn't going to get to that number... she NEEDS the supperdelegates and should the superdelegates all go to Bernie then he would win... it all comes down to the final PLEDGED delegate count... Go Bernie!


And thus it is APPOINTED delegates (superdelegates) who will ultimately determine the Democratic candidate.
This is undemocratic, classist, elitist and unacceptable.
<Who does the appointing of these very special people? Does the right pass from father to son (sarcasm) or is it based on net worth (not sarcasm.)>
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