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Trump Currently Underperforming Romney 2012 With Key Groups
According to the latest NBC News/WSJ Poll, Trump is underperforming Romney with these groups:
Quote:
Women: Clinton 52%, Trump 35% (Clinton +17) -- was Obama +11, per the 2012 exit polls
White Women: Trump 44%, Clinton 43% (Trump +1) -- was Romney +14 in 2012
Whites: Trump 49%, Clinton 37% (Trump +12) -- was Romney +20 in 2012
Latinos: Clinton 69%, Trump 22% (Clinton +47) -- was Obama +44 in 2012
Better poll for Trump, both candidates will get a convention bounce obviously but it will be interesting to see if Trump can begin to close the gap on her long term.
Better poll for Trump, both candidates will get a convention bounce obviously but it will be interesting to see if Trump can begin to close the gap on her long term.
Polls are not going to show the hidden support for Trump. I kind of like that and we will see the shock on the faces of Dem's who thought everyone was as stupid as them.
Better poll for Trump, both candidates will get a convention bounce obviously but it will be interesting to see if Trump can begin to close the gap on her long term.
I just looked at the methodology on the pdf version. They polled registered voters not likely voters.
Interesting is the difference between Trump and Clinton is still 2% when the third party candidates are included: 39% to 37%. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points.
I also wanted to see for whom the older people plan to vote because they are more reliable as far as turnout goes on Election Day and I still think this election will be about turnout.
Without the third party candidates:
Ages 50 - 64:
Clinton 39%
Trump 45%
Ages 65+
Clinton 35%
Trump 51%
With the third party candidates
Ages 50 - 64
Clinton 38%
Trump 42%
Ages 65+
Clinton 33%
Trump 50%
The other turnout question is the obvious:
Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?
Suspiciously, they didn't ask this question by candidate choice. You would think they would have asked this question of the people who said they were voting for Trump and the people who said they were voting for Clinton but they didn't. They show results by the voter's party. Well, that's a total waste of time if people are going to cross over in either direction to vote, especially in this election.
While the poll shows Republicans are 10% more enthusiastic than Democrats (38% vs 28%) and Republicans are more enthusiastic than less enthusiastic (38% vs 32%) compared to Democrats who are not enthusiastic at all (28% vs 35%), I wouldn't get too excited about this being a turnout indicator.
According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll, Clinton leads Trump:
51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia
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Clinton/Trump Deadlocked, Poll Shows
