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This has been the story for PA for the last 20 years on the Presidential level.
Republicans in the state have made huge gains with working class white voters, especially in the western portion of the state once you get outside of Pittsburgh and its immediate suburbs.
However, most of this area isn't that well populated and at the same time they made those huge gains in the western part of the state, they have lost considerable ground in suburban Philadephia.
Well educated middle to upper middle class voters in the Philly suburbs use to be the base of the GOP in the state (think Specter types). Specter's was of course tied to him facing a very tough Primary challenge, but a key reason why that challenge became so strong was the fact his long suburban Philly base, no longer voted GOP.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won 55 of 67 counties in Pennsylvania, but still lost the state by 300,000. The balance of power in PA has traditionally been the affluent suburbs of Philadelphia. As the article I linked documented, while the rest of PA is trending R, the city and burbs of SE PA have been trending more D and thus far they have outweighed the Republican trending parts of the state. To turn the Philly suburbs to the GOP, Trump has to score with college educated women, and that's one of his weakest demographics.
Very true! Although 58 percent of the vote is outside of Philadelphia the GOP tends to do so bad there that it makes catching up nearly impossible. In order for Trump to win he has to make inroads there. As much as working class voters with no degree like him ones with degrees don't like him with the same fervor.
Hillary will win the States where there are more people IN the Wagon than people that are PULLING the Wagon...
You know, you can repeat this drivel over and over, but here in the real world the states that can't fend for themselves and disproportionately need a helping hand are red states. And those states providing the helping hand? Mostly blue states.
Of the 20 states most dependent on federal largess, Obama carried all of 2 twice, and 1 once. McCain carried 17 and Romney carried 18.
Of the 20 states least dependent on federal aid, Obama carried 16 of them twice. McCain and Romney carried the other 4.
The problem with only reading one article is that you only get one opinion out of many, so this one explains the changing demographics and it is looking pretty good for my candidate!
Here's an interesting article, dated June 7th from the conservative publication "The Federalist" that examines how difficult a lift it will be for Donald Trump to carry Pennsylvania. Basically, it comes down to doing well enough in the suburban counties of Philadelphia, which are loaded with college educated women, who aren't exactly warming to Donald Trump.
If there is any question at all that Trump will take the very Blue state of Pennsylvania, then Hillary is in really bad trouble. This should be obvious.
The problem with only reading one article is that you only get one opinion out of many, so this one explains the changing demographics and it is looking pretty good for my candidate!
Honestly, IMO this one said the things as all the others cited in regards to Trump.
From your link in regards to PA:
Quote:
The challenge for Trump here is still considerable. As Cook Political Report National Editor Amy Walter pointed out, “For every blue collar and disaffected voter Trump may pick up in Western Pennsylvania, he could lose two or more women in the Philadelphia suburbs.” Furthermore, in addition to Philadelphia’s large African-American population, there has been modest Latino growth, particularly in Lancaster, Reading and the Lehigh Valley.
If there is any question at all that Trump will take the very Blue state of Pennsylvania, then Hillary is in really bad trouble. This should be obvious.
The problem is they say this every election and it turns out to be false. Eventually the GOP will begin winning PA because the demographics are shifting in their favor there. Just like they will start winning in some of the midwest areas and the Democrats will pick up southern coastal towns. I'm just not convinced it's going to be this election though.
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