Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 07-12-2016, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Somewhere
8,070 posts, read 6,921,359 times
Reputation: 5654

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by TxStorm72 View Post
It will be 7 in a row is my prediction. Trump loses the election by my calculations when he loses Florida if he does. Doesn't matter about Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, etc....

The Dems already have 242 electoral votes with Pennsylvania. Florida gets them across the finish line.
This.

Trump has to win Florida. There is no way around that.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-12-2016, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Jamestown, NY
7,840 posts, read 9,142,139 times
Reputation: 13779
Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
CNN agrees with your categorization.

When DJT secured the nomination in May, CNN listed 13 states in the middle. That includes the 11 states that Obama won that DJT said he would campaign in, including PA and MI that "lean Democrat". It only included 2 states that Romney won that "lean Republican". When DJT announced the 17 states that he would campaign in, he added four more states that voted against Obama that he feels needed shoring up.
  1. Georgia (16),
  2. Arizona (11),
    .
  3. Florida (29),
  4. Ohio (18),
  5. North Carolina (15)
  6. Virginia (13),
  7. Wisconsin (10),
  8. Colorado (9),
  9. Iowa (6),
  10. New Hampshire (4),
  11. Nevada (6),
    .
  12. Pennsylvania (20).
  13. Michigan (16)
I don't think Florida or Virginia are battleground states for Trump. Florida has too many immigrants, too many Hispanics, and is too urban. Northern Virginia, which dominates the state the way Philly and Pittsburgh and the other urban areas dominate PA, is too well-educated, too racially and ethnically diverse, and too urbanized.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-12-2016, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Jamestown, NY
7,840 posts, read 9,142,139 times
Reputation: 13779
Quote:
Originally Posted by silverkris View Post
Correct. The problem for the GOP is that they are nowhere near doing all of that now and for the last 2 presidential elections.
And likely into the future, too. The damage that Trump has done to the GOP in terms of attracting Latino voters is going to be long-lasting IMO. That he's still the party nominee despite what he's said about Mexicans is likely to make many Latinos unwilling to trust the GOP in the future.

Plain and simple, the GOP's pandering to white bigotry since the late 1960s/early 1970s has turned a demographic that once split 50-50 or 60-40 Democrat/Republican into a demographic that votes 90+ Democrat. The GOP's pandering to bigotry against Spanish speakers in the last two elections, and now with Trump's outright racism against Latinos, threatens to have the same result because, unless there's some kind of revolution within the GOP, the thinly veiled racism against Latinos by claiming they're "illegals" isn't going to go away with Trump's defeat.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-12-2016, 01:56 PM
 
16,376 posts, read 22,362,118 times
Reputation: 14391
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChloeC View Post
Which pretty much rules out any registered Democrat.
You do know that "working class" means poor or almost poor, right?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-13-2016, 06:30 PM
 
14,613 posts, read 17,293,877 times
Reputation: 7781
Default Four potential scenarios to TRUMP eking out a victory

Quote:
Originally Posted by Linda_d View Post
I don't think Florida or Virginia are battleground states for Trump. Florida has too many immigrants, too many Hispanics, and is too urban. Northern Virginia, which dominates the state the way Philly and Pittsburgh and the other urban areas dominate PA, is too well-educated, too racially and ethnically diverse, and too urbanized.
Linda, so you think Trump will lose FL, VA, and PA. It is highly unlikely that he would lose all three of those states, and still win the election, but I listed that as scenario #4

I think that it is highly unlikely that one of the 24 states that didn't vote for Obama will end up voting for Hillary. Basically Obama had much more charm. Obviously, it would be suicide to not campaign in any of those states, so Trump is campaigning in the 7 that he thinks need "shoring up". So I don't see Trump losing any of the Romney states.

Romney lost by 126 electoral college votes, so TRUMP needs to win at least 63 for a tie.

Four possible scenarios to a minimal Trump victory

(scenario #1)Under the presumption that if Trump may do well in the general election in states wheref he did well in the primaries (68 votes) TRUMP wins 4 battleground states.
% Vote for Trump in primaries
58% Pennsylvania 20 TRUMP WINS
57% Virginia 13 TRUMP WINS
46% Florida 29 TRUMP WINS
46% Nevada 6 TRUMP WINS

(scenario #2)Under the presumption that if Trump will do well with the "white, not Latino" states (68 votes) TRUMP wins 5 or 6 battleground states
% White, Not Latino in 2010 census
89.27% New Hampshire 4 (Trump still wins without NH)
88.96% Iowa 6
82.68% Ohio 18
82.32% Wisconsin 10
81.26% Pennsylvania 20
78.98% Michigan 10

(scenario #3) Trump wins 3 big states
PA, FL, and OH with 67 votes are big enough that if Trump wins all three he's won the election. The top 9 states have half the population of the country, and Obama has won 7 of them in both elections (losing only TX and GA).

(scenario #4) Hillary wins Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia. Trump wins the 7 smaller battleground states. The tie electoral college vote send the election to the Republican dominated House of Representatives who votes for Trump
18 Ohio
10 Michigan
10 Wisconsin
9 Colorado
6 Nevada
6 Iowa
4 New Hampshire
63 Total

For reference, these are the historical results with Latino vote. GW Bush obviously did the best for the GOP in his second term, but Democratic candidate always wins.

Last edited by PacoMartin; 07-13-2016 at 06:40 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-28-2016, 02:20 PM
 
14,613 posts, read 17,293,877 times
Reputation: 7781
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linda_d View Post
Plain and simple, the GOP's pandering to white bigotry since the late 1960s/early 1970s has turned a demographic that once split 50-50 or 60-40 Democrat/Republican into a demographic that votes 90+ Democrat. The GOP's pandering to bigotry against Spanish speakers in the last two elections, and now with Trump's outright racism against Latinos, threatens to have the same result because, unless there's some kind of revolution within the GOP, the thinly veiled racism against Latinos by claiming they're "illegals" isn't going to go away with Trump's defeat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu9-xiGPtB8

Even though Tim Kaine looks like an older White grandpa, his fluency in Spanish is not bad.I think he will secure Florida for the Democrats. So increasingly Trump's ability to attract voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio is becoming critical to determining if he is going to win.
==================================

The Border Zone with Mexico was defined in 1953 as Eisenhower administration realized that crossing the border easily for roughly 25 miles in either direction was crucial for the economic well being of the region. Even back in the 1950's that region had a large Mexican American population. That was extended to 55 miles in New Mexico to include Las Cruces, and to 75 miles in Arizona to include Tucson.

Americans pay no government fee to cross into Mexico until they pass the border zone. I believe that basically by convention, they simply never open the inspection station in Baja so that Americans are free to drive the peninsula. Mexicans are vetted by the US State Department to show that they have ties to Mexico and issued a "border crossing card" for $160 for 10 years (or 31 cents per week). This finances the review process and helps pay for vehicle inspection stations inland in the USA to make sure that Mexican citizens don't travel to the major cities with just a border crossing card and without an additional visa.

Nearly 10 million Mexican citizens have these US State department cards, and they are used roughly 10 million times per month. The overwhelming benefit of these cards economically is to the USA, as Mexicans pour over the border to shop in US shopping centers which are better equipped than traditional Mexican marketplaces. Many items, in particular electronics and cookware are much cheaper in the USA. Wealthy Mexicans are also looking for luxury goods. Even gasoline is often cheaper in the USA. Certainly many people use the cards to work, and especially since President GW Bush extended the stay period from three days to 30 days in 2004, some Mexicans live in the US border zone where it is considerably safer. The USA puts no restrictions on foreign ownership of US property.

Are there overstays? Of course there are overstays! With over 100 million crossings per year amounting to over half the land crossings in the southern border there are people who violate the terms of the border crossing card. Certainly some people try to drive out of the Border Zone (hence the checkpoints).

Donald Trump has earmarked the Border Crossing Cards as a potential revenue source to pay for the estimated $12 billion wall.

Quote:
Visa fees: Even a small increase in visa fees would pay for the wall. This includes fees on border crossing cards, of which more than 1 million are issued a year. The border-crossing card is also one of the greatest sources of illegal immigration into the United States, via overstays. Mexico is also the single largest recipient of U.S. green cards, which confer a path to U.S. citizenship. Again, we have the leverage so Mexico will back down.
The numbers don't add up. You have one million BCC cards issued every year for $160 apiece. How much are you going to charge for them? Is he proposing a tenfold or twenty fold increase in the fee? His estimate for the wall is $12 billion, and like all major projects estimate are invariably optimistic. Mexican store owners along the border are going to be ecstatic as more Mexicans shop in Mexico. The shopping malls along the border on the US side will begin closing.

Just to repeat, the Border Zone has existed since 1953, and it was designed to improve economic conditions along the border. I guarantee you that US is the greater beneficiary of the Border Zone. Destroying it will hurt the US far more than it will hurt Mexico.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top