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Old 07-15-2016, 06:57 PM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
4,580 posts, read 4,398,216 times
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According to the latest NBC poll, Hillary leads in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado. Three of the four have been traditional red states for years until Obama won Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia in 2008. Colorado, Virginia and the Tarheel State have become purple states. If the election were held today, wins in these states would clearly mean a victory for Clinton and she would be our next president. Republicans can only blame themselves for voting for a flawed candidate in the primaries. One reason why North Carolina has become a purple state is because of the influx of northeastern democrats moving to North Carolina, particularly in the Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham areas. The state is becoming more and more urban and diverse. Democrats do well in states with large cities. Texas is really the only exception.

Hillary Clinton leads in four swing states including NC, according to poll | myfox8.com

Last edited by gsoboi78; 07-15-2016 at 07:13 PM..
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Old 07-16-2016, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Kansas
19,185 posts, read 15,015,366 times
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One poll, 4 states polled of less than 1,000 each. And, in other polls, it is closer or tied. These conditions do not indicate any kind of win for the highly flawed candidate, Hillary Clinton. Hey, it isn't over until she is officially nominated, so maybe the Dems will get a break and she'll bow out showing she has integrity after all.
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Old 07-16-2016, 07:07 AM
 
7,055 posts, read 2,510,577 times
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Real Clear Politics poll average has Clinton in the lead in all swing states.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton

Nate Silver has Clinton carrying all swing states with the exception of North Carolina (polls-plus model). Lowest chance for a Clinton win rated at 65%.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...forecast/#plus

Dr. Sam Wang; Princeton Election Consortium

Current lowest probability of a Clinton win: 65%
http://election.princeton.edu/faq/#jerseyvotes
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Old 07-16-2016, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Dallas
5,601 posts, read 4,931,911 times
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And Trump leads Hillary in Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, plus beats her in several national polls.

Nate Silver has been wrong about Trump from the beginning....no reason to start putting credence in his predictions now.

NATE SILVER: We got Trump wrong - Business Insider
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Old 07-16-2016, 07:19 AM
 
9,859 posts, read 10,110,348 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
According to the latest NBC poll, Hillary leads in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado.
Romney wins by lowest percentage 2012
Indiana 54.1%
Missouri 53.8%
Arizona 53.7%
Georgia 53.3%
N Carolina 50.4%

These five of 24 states were lost by Obama in 2012. The percentages are the percentage of the vote won by Romney. The GOP has targeted these 5 as needing to be shored up, so they will spend money and time to campaign there. N Carolina is obviously going to have swings in polls before the election. However, if Trump is not able to secure these states, he has almost no chance of winning the election.

These are the twelve states that Obama won in 2012 that the GOP is targeting for campaigning
29 Florida
20 Pennsylvania
18 Ohio
13 Virginia
10 Minnesota
10 Michigan
10 Wisconsin
9 Colorado
6 Nevada
6 Iowa
4 Maine
4 New Hampshire
131

If Trump wins FL, PA, and OH in addition to Romney's 24 states he wins the election.
If Trump wins FL, PA, and VA in addition to Romney's 24 states he loses the election by 2 votes.
If Trump wins PA,OH, MN, WI, IA which have highest percentage of White, Non-Latino vote, then he wins the election.
-- Note Maine and New Hampshire also have high percentage of WNL voters, but lean Democrat. They would be bonus votes.

In the last 9 Presidential elections, the GOP candidate has secured between 21% and 40% of the Latino vote. Unfortunately, the inroads the GW Bush made into the Latino community, will be lost by Trump.

Latino Eligible to Vote
New Mexico 40.4%
Texas 28.1%
California 28.0%
Arizona 21.5%
Florida 18.1%
Nevada 17.2%
Colorado 14.5%

New York 13.8%
New Jersey 13.6%
Connecticut 10.8%
Illinois 10.5%

The GOP is targeting AZ, FL, NV, and CO for campaigning in 2016. TX is assumed to go GOP without a campaign.
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Old 07-16-2016, 07:45 AM
 
7,055 posts, read 2,510,577 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aquietpath View Post
And Trump leads Hillary in Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, plus beats her in several national polls.

Nate Silver has been wrong about Trump from the beginning....no reason to start putting credence in his predictions now.

NATE SILVER: We got Trump wrong - Business Insider
Silver didn't say that Trump wouldn't win the Republican nomination based on a mathematical model. His computer models are designed for the general election. He was stating his opinion on Trump, not basing his statements on mathematical probability and he was wrong. I put a lot of credence in his computer models, and those of Sam Wang. Both have been near perfect in calling states correctly for the past two elections or more.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_...neuroscientist)
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Old 07-16-2016, 09:10 AM
 
15,353 posts, read 17,603,354 times
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Is there a web site link for Sam Wang's projections, based on data?
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Old 07-16-2016, 09:13 AM
 
7,055 posts, read 2,510,577 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sware2cod View Post
Is there a web site link for Sam Wang's projections, based on data?
About PEC and the Meta-Analysis (FAQ)
http://election.princeton.edu
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Old 07-16-2016, 09:27 AM
 
Location: Kansas
19,185 posts, read 15,015,366 times
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Check your MoE (margin of error) and the number of LV/RV (likely/registered) polled.

Last night my husband got a cell phone call from a number we didn't recognize, so he didn't answer. I looked it us "Democratic Polling" and then reported the call since we are on the "no-call" list.

Hillary isn't doing well and considering her struggle against Bernie, the FBI findings, who would expect her to be? She is losing ground the way I see it. I also see a lot of "undecided" in those polls, enough to put the best candidate over the top and, we all know that sure to heck isn't Hillary.

The polls said that Trump would take the caucus in KS. I said he wouldn't. Cruz took the state. Educated guesses play out better than "polling".
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Old 07-16-2016, 09:39 AM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,104,197 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnywhereElse View Post
Check your MoE (margin of error) and the number of LV/RV (likely/registered) polled.

Last night my husband got a cell phone call from a number we didn't recognize, so he didn't answer. I looked it us "Democratic Polling" and then reported the call since we are on the "no-call" list.

Hillary isn't doing well and considering her struggle against Bernie, the FBI findings, who would expect her to be? She is losing ground the way I see it. I also see a lot of "undecided" in those polls, enough to put the best candidate over the top and, we all know that sure to heck isn't Hillary.

The polls said that Trump would take the caucus in KS. I said he wouldn't. Cruz took the state. Educated guesses play out better than "polling".
Gotta love the poll unskewers. They said the said about Obama in 2012 as well.
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