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Old 07-17-2016, 12:08 PM
 
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A review of all the polls being taken in the presidential race reveals that every poll other than Rasmussen has Clinton ahead of Trump or at worst dead even with him. This is approximately eight separate polls.

Rasmussen is the exception. It has Trump seven points ahead.

Can someone please tell me what Rasmussen does differently that results in numbers that are at odds with polls like ABC, NBC, Reuters, Fox, and CNN?

Just one last word. I am very interested in an explanation. I am not interested in hearing stuff like "Well that's the only poll that go it right". If that's the comment you want to make, your off topic.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:12 PM
 
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From what I've read, Rasmussen combines Likely voters along with registered voters....which pollsters stopped doing years ago. They also are severely under reporting minority voters as they expect less minorities to come out since it's not Obama running
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:15 PM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
A review of all the polls being taken in the presidential race reveals that every poll other than Rasmussen has Clinton ahead of Trump or at worst dead even with him. This is approximately eight separate polls.
Out of 23 pollsters, Rasmussen finished 20th in 2012 for accuracy.

Quote:
Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ial-race/?_r=0

Latest Rasmussen Polls Project Romney To Win 279+ Electoral Votes - Breitbart

Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily - Rasmussen Reports™

Of course, the best methodology is to aggregate all the pollsters - even the demonstrably crappy ones such as Rasmussen. Then look at what the polls as a whole say, not just certain ones.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:19 PM
 
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the LATimes has Trump in the lead also. Maybe you should look to see if they do anything similar.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:22 PM
 
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Originally Posted by pknopp View Post
the LATimes has Trump in the lead also. Maybe you should look to see if they do anything similar.
Within margin of error...200 polls show Clinton in the lead, only a couple with trump in the lead
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Kansas
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This appears to be what you are discussing: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

I always first ignore CNN when it comes to polling since they are owned by Time Warner and Time Warner has donated $700,000 to the Clinton campaign, when you invest in something, you like to see it prosper.

I see a +11 for Clinton basically before Comey read the FBI report. That could explain why it is higher than anything after that.

Note that Rasmussen uses LV (likely voters) while the others do not. That could cause some discrepancy.

Looking at the MoE (margin of error), it puts a certain shadow over some of Clinton's higher numbers too.

The polling doesn't mean all that much at this point or maybe ever. I had a college course on "Statistics & Probability" which shed a lot of light on "odds of".

We got a call we didn't answer, looked it up and it was "Democratic" polling coming out of FL. I reported the number since we are on the no call list. So, who answers the phone makes such a big difference and nearly everyone I know doesn't answer their phone unless they know who it is. And, really, how many people stopped on the street and asked who they support are going to answer with all the violence out there?
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:24 PM
 
Location: Kansas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lkm370 View Post
Within margin of error...200 polls show Clinton in the lead, only a couple with trump in the lead
If Clinton has a +2 with a margin of error of 2 or more, that means her lead may or may not exist.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:29 PM
 
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Originally Posted by AnywhereElse View Post
If Clinton has a +2 with a margin of error of 2 or more, that means her lead may or may not exist.
That is true But if you look at RCPs average, Trump has only lead once with 0.2% for like a day....what matters at the end of the day is the aggregate and Trump had never led once

If he dosent lead by August....it's pretty much over
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:31 PM
 
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looking at the RCP average.....every poll that has Hillary in the lead is polling registered voters.

Rasmussen is polling Likely voters. (As has already been noted).

You'll need to find a polling expert to determine the pros and cons of each and which is the most accurate.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:32 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lkm370 View Post
That is true But if you look at RCPs average, Trump has only lead once with 0.2% for like a day....what matters at the end of the day is the aggregate and Trump had never led once

If he dosent lead by August....it's pretty much over
Brexit never led.
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