***National Presidential Polls*** Part III (CNN, Clinton, election, elect)

[YanMarcs]

WI and MI is always the same , research shows a tight election on election day the Democratic candidate wins with good margin of difference.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by Dole-McCain Republican

Anybody who is familiar with my posts knows that I am no fan of Trump (or of Clinton, for that matter). However, I do have some good news for Trump supporters. According to two very respected sites, Trump is now favored to win Iowa (which was a state that Obama won by 5.81% in 2012 and 9.53% in 2008). First, Trump is ahead in the RCP polling averages by 0.8%. And second, fivethirtyeight.com gives Trump a 55.2% chance of winning the state.

While it is still unlikely that Trump will become president, I think that--longer term--these polls show that Iowa is turning into a red state (similar to how Missouri was once a purple state that turned red). Beginning in 2020 (when the GOP nominates a much better candidate), I suspect that Iowa will not be all that competitive.

Trump is going to win on turnout. His voters will show up to vote just like they show up for his rallies. This is not to say Hillary doesn't have a lot of people who tell pollsters they like her. I just think a lot of them don't like her enough to bother to vote.

I said this before Trump even declared his candidacy. If the 2016 Election is going to be Clinton vs Bush it will set a record for low voter turnout (both sides).

[eddiehaskell]

Originally Posted by BucFan

Trump is citing polls more often nowadays. Used to say they were rigged. Guess they aren't now?

Maybe they are still rigged to keep Clinton competitive, but heck why not beat people on the head with the polls they like to tout. You don't think the Clinton camp likes to talk polls when they feel ahead? Heck, just today I heard a MSNBC reporter saying Hillary commented that she "never looks at the polls" - seems like a good out to a question that was probably something like "how do you feel about Donald Trump's surge in the polls?"

[marino760]

Originally Posted by YanMarcs

WI and MI is always the same , research shows a tight election on election day the Democratic candidate wins with good margin of difference.

This might be the case, but it's not election day and by then, one or the other may be comfortably ahead and it won't be such a tight race.

[BucFan]

Huge variance in polls in Clinton vs Trump on college educated vs no-college voters. Clinton continues to get more college educated (Whites). Believe this data was from the CNN poll.


Trump seems to be very appealing to the "poorly educated". Curious why?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpdt7omPoa0

[Bureaucat]

On today's MTP Daily, Republican pollster Glenn Bolger questioned the CNN poll that showed Trump leading by 2. He said that the sample indicated a+4 Republican electorate, which he said is not realistic. Also, since the poll was conducted over the Labor Day Weekend, it was lighter than it should be on higher income college educated voters.

Earlier in the show, Chuck Todd stated that this was CNN's first likely voters model and that they were forecasting an electorate that was nearly half whites without a college degree, where in 2012, whites without a college degree made up 1 of 3 voters.

In the CNN sample, their results were:

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 43%
Johnson: 7%
Stein: 2%

Using the same data from the CNN poll, but adjusting the turnout to reflect what the turnout was in 2016, this would be the results:

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 2%

I guess the shocker for me is how a model for 2016 can be based upon white non-college voters being nearly 50% of total votes cast.


Here's historic estimates of the white non-college vote and the share of the non-college White vote of the total Republican vote. If this actually occurs, it will buck recent historic trends and probably further question the validity of the exit polls they were based upon.

White Non-College Share/Share of GOP Vote

1980= 65/70
1984= 62/68 -3%
1988= 54/60 -8%
1992= 53/55 -1%
1996= 46/49 -7%
2000= 46/54- no change
2004= 43/52 -3%
2008= 39/50 -4%
2012= 36/? -3%
2016= 33 est. -3%

In 36 years % of voters that were white non-college has halved
GOP though still depends disproportionately on that vote

[Mr. In-Between]

I think that really speaks to the question of why so many of the poll numbers are all over the place. There is almost nothing about this election that matches the traditional models - everything about this election is completely uncharted territory. Pollsters really don't have a clear idea of how to weight the response, and very time they tweak it, it jumps 6 feet in the other direction.

[cupper3]

Originally Posted by BucFan

Huge variance in polls in Clinton vs Trump on college educated vs no-college voters. Clinton continues to get more college educated (Whites). Believe this data was from the CNN poll.


Trump seems to be very appealing to the "poorly educated". Curious why?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpdt7omPoa0

He's found his niche with the Jerry Springer demographic.

[cachibatches]

Most polls stlll have her about 4 points ahead and she still has a massive electoral advantage, but this is big. Hillary has largely ceded the conversation by her extrememly limited number of appearances and press conferances, and Trump is indeed reaching out to the black community and Mexico.

He is apparently reaching somebody, and he only has to change a few minds. As one article put it: You can't run down the clock when the other guy has the ball.

I still think Hillary is going to win, but for the first time I am curious about the race. How far can he take this?


CNN/ORC9/1 - 9/4786 LV3.54849Trump +1

LA Times/USC8/30 - 9/52605 LV4.54444Tie
the

[Misanthrope83]

Nah. Its only world wide news when Clinton is in the lead. If CNN aka Clinton News Network is saying is 1 or 2 ahead that means he is at least 10 ahead.