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This is from the Reuters/Ipsos link previously provided:
Just from that, it is hard to see how Clinton could ever lose unless lack of enthusiasm keeps her groups at home.
Well, it's one poll is the thing. I don't know if she is even up anyway. Tracking polls are good for determining broader trends but not as good for predicting the winner early on. They tend to be driven by events a lot.
That whole clinton is sick thing just didn't gain traction for long, did it? So, calling all trumpists to go back to calling polls bogus and fixed!
"Clinton, who has mostly led Trump in the poll since the Democratic and Republican national conventions ended in July, regained the advantage this week after her lead briefly faded in late August."
I really don't think you can make much into a single poll. Also this poll is pretty much in line with the others. Out of the ones that report on 538, other than the USC/LA Times (which is unrated and has a differing methodology), all the national polls within the last week have been between even and Clinton +3.
It is some of the state polls where you are starting to see some wild swings, although there is no question Trump has picked up momentum.
Now of course the key will be what will happen with the momentum? Trump built a bit of momentum into late August, but then that stalled out for about two weeks. Now he is building momentum again. Will he continue to gain? Will it stall out and still show Clinton with a lead, albeit a narrow one? Will it reverse?
It is really too hard to tell at this point, one poll showing a result won't really tell it, towards the end of next week we will probably have a better idea if this is just a quick bounce for Trump or something a bit bigger, and then of course we have the debate in nine days so that could change the race again.
Yep. If it keeps up, Trump won't even need to try to duck out of the second debate with Cooper. There won't be one because Trump will be the only one left above 15%.
Well that's the thing. It's going to depend on how polls react this week. Since all the polling will be done after Clinton got back on the trail. If polling rebounds then it was likely just a low response rate thing. If it continues widening then it might be a broader trend. Of course with the first debate happening in only 9 days it might not matter much who is leading. I really think that the debates will alter the state of the race. And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the first one is enough. People sitting on the fence just need that extra push to get over it. The question is just how many of them lean Clinton and just how many of them lean Trump?
That question is the key to the entire election. Those who are still undecided, or who are not completely committed to one candidate or the other, are the ones who will determine this race. And the one thing we do not know - CANNOT know - at this point is, what is it that those people are looking for? What do they need to hear to make up their minds? I believe the entire election hangs on that one question alone, and we will not know the answer to it until the first debate.
Stirewalt is not a Trump fan. He's one of the primary boys, along with George Will, who must have cut class for Predictions 101.
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