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I know that, you know that, anyone who is trying to to use common sense knows that, but, Trump supporters have a hard time fathoming that Trump is not popular with a boat load of people. Minorities in particular.
Have those conducting the poll made any comment? It's funny how dems had no problem bringing up that poll when Hillary was +5 or more.
Wasn't this poll one of the most accurate last time? Regardless, this poll isn't in their average of 4-way polls and that's even closer at Clinton +0.7%.
No. LA Times existed of course and did polling, but THIS poll did not exist last time. This is an entirely new creature and is an experimental poll concocted by researchers at USC attempting to find a better way to predict elections in a changing tech world. We'll see how the experiment ends up but with it finding 1 of 5 blacks behind Trump it appears seriously flawed in sampling that demographic at least.
I know that, you know that, anyone who is trying to to use common sense knows that, but, Trump supporters have a hard time fathoming that Trump is not popular with a boat load of people. Minorities in particular.
It's unscientific of course, but my extended family is AA. Nobody, and I mean nobody is voting for Trump. He is considered a joke and a bigot by them. They say, with some concern maybe, that once he kicks out the Spanish he will come for us. They don't love Clinton necessarily for the same reasons the rest of us don't, but they will never in a million years vote for a guy they consider a racist (fairly or not). His reception in Flint is about they way he is received in the greater community. The larger question is whether they go vote or not.
Have those conducting the poll made any comment? It's funny how dems had no problem bringing up that poll when Hillary was +5 or more.
Yes, they agreed there might be issues with it. The biggest problem is that they are weighting to self reported voting of 2012. That's something that PPP got into trouble with a few years back. The reason being is that people tend to lie and thus a closer result will give more weight to the party on the losing end. It's also a panel and that uses the same people every week. So if the original panel was more full of Trump leaners then that's going to affect it more. It's likely one of those two or a combination of things. Regardless, it's pretty obviously off. I tend to quote only quality polls when I can. Sometimes with states I won't simply because state polling is few and far between with some states.
Wasn't this poll one of the most accurate last time? Regardless, this poll isn't in their average of 4-way polls and that's even closer at Clinton +0.7%.
No, that was the daybreak poll. This was created by the same people that did that poll. I'm not sure if the methodology is the same though.
After a bad week for Clinton the polls must be disappointing to Team Trump. With all the momentum and news cycle going his way, the best he can do is almost tie the race -- Clinton still enjoys a very small lead in the electoral college. 538 still has Clinton with 60% chance of winning vs. 40% for Trump. Sure, he's had a great momentum surge in the polls to close the gap -- but he can't seem to make the sale to push over the top.
These last 10 days or so are probably the most favorable he's going to have. The pneumonia bump is temporary. Assuming no major gaffes by Clinton and she has a solid debate performance, this race will most likely re-stabilize to Clinton +4 where it was.
Yes, they agreed there might be issues with it. The biggest problem is that they are weighting to self reported voting of 2012. That's something that PPP got into trouble with a few years back. The reason being is that people tend to lie and thus a closer result will give more weight to the party on the losing end. It's also a panel and that uses the same people every week. So if the original panel was more full of Trump leaners then that's going to affect it more. It's likely one of those two or a combination of things. Regardless, it's pretty obviously off. I tend to quote only quality polls when I can. Sometimes with states I won't simply because state polling is few and far between with some states.
The thing is...we have seen Clinton up 3-5%+ for sustained periods of time. Thus, a shift to Trump +7 among the same group is certainly something worth noting.
After a bad week for Clinton the polls must be disappointing to Team Trump. With all the momentum and news cycle going his way, the best he can do is almost tie the race -- Clinton still enjoys a very small lead in the electoral college. 538 still has Clinton with 60% chance of winning vs. 40% for Trump. Sure, he's had a great momentum surge in the polls to close the gap -- but he can't seem to make the sale to push over the top.
These last 10 days or so are probably the most favorable he's going to have. The pneumonia bump is temporary. Assuming no major gaffes by Clinton and she has a solid debate performance, this race will most likely re-stabilize to Clinton +4 where it was.
The polls went from about +8 Clinton to tied in about a month. Why would anyone at team Trump be disappointed?
The question is why can't Hillary seal the deal against TRUMP? I said TRUMP!!! Really...do you not hear how dems describe Trump?
The thing is...we have seen Clinton up 3-5%+ for sustained periods of time. Thus, a shift to Trump +7 among the same group is certainly something worth noting.
Certainly, it shows things have tightened up. It's just not accurate in the numbers is all. Neither of these two are going to be winning by more than a point or two. I would be amazed if either of them cracks 300 ev honestly.
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