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The state polls were taken at the same time. No reason to me why they would be different unless they really are. In 2012 state polls were more accurate than national ones
Yes, and so were the state polls when Trump was narrowing the national polling. The state polls were not reflecting that fact until a few weeks later. So if these polls become regular then you will see that in the state polling in a week or so.
The NY Times did an interesting experiment in polling, and it certainly helps to understand why the polls are all over the place. It could make you give up on polls completely.
"We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results."
"...But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys.
Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come up with two very different results..."
The NY Times did an interesting experiment in polling, and it certainly helps to understand why the polls are all over the place. It could make you give up on polls completely.
"We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results."
"...But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys.
Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come up with two very different results..."
It all depends on the turnout model they're using. I still think that the most accurate barometers are likely to be the poll aggregators that factor in the average amount of bias by each pollster. That's Nate Silver, Sam Wang and a few others.
It all depends on the turnout model they're using. I still think that the most accurate barometers are likely to be the poll aggregators that factor in the average amount of bias by each pollster. That's Nate Silver, Sam Wang and a few others.
Basically this is it and the reason why some polls have it better for Trump than others. Some are assuming that Democratic turnout will be depressed and GOP turnout will be high and others don't expect it to be a ton different from 2012. Considering the huge uptick in absentee ballots from Dems I think the latter is more likely then the former. Of course we won't know exactly until election day.
Most or all the polls are popular votes, correct? Are there polls that will transform to the actual GE result via electorate college?
National polls don't segregate by state. State polls - which are done separately - do. Polling aggregators compile the results - a few of which have been discussed in just the last past two pages. Here's one:
Most or all the polls are popular votes, correct? Are there polls that will transform to the actual GE result via electorate college?
Most poll aggregators take the state returns and calculate what the national electoral vote will look like. Here's a link to a daily update done by the New York Times that gives not only their state by state assessment, but also the findings from 538, Daily Kos, PredictWise, Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang), the Cook Political Report, Rothenberg/Gonzales Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
538 polls-plus has Trump back above 40%...40.5%. We've came a long way Trumpettes.
Not true. Your cultmaster had a brief bump where he was well above 40 for a few days, and now he's slipped back down where he belongs. All 3 of the 538 models have him below 40%.
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