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Not quite a prediction thread, but wanted to get a feel for where everyone viewed the race currently. This will likely change as the race goes on, but here is how I feel things shape up now.
1. Clinton is up by a similar margin nationally, Obama won in 2008.
2. 3rd Party candidates will do better than they have since Perot in 1996. Current #'s might not hold as 3rd party candidates typically poll better than the votes they get, but will easily be their best showing in 20 years.
3. 3rd Party candidates are pulling slightly more from Clinton than Trump. Not enough to make any difference and this might change or even reverse slightly depending on how many states Stein doesn't get on the ballot on.
4. It looks like Trump has put Iowa in play and perhaps Nevada as well. Two states won by Obama in 2008 and 2012.
5. Virginia and Colorado are completely gone.
6. North Carolina might be slipping away for the GOP. A recent poll has Clinton opening up a solid lead, though more polls are needed to back up that result, it does appear she at least has a small lead there.
7. Georgia looks like might be in play, both sides have traded small leads here. Arizona is another possibility, although there hasn't been enough polling there to be all that confident.
I am beginning to wonder if we won't see a candidate (from either side or both) parachute in sometime in Sept/Oct. as an independent. This thing is just getting so brutal with the fact that Hillary really is a disqualified and horrendous candidate and Trump is a flawed candidate with the media, establishment, and tech moguls all out to smear him.
By October, both of these candidates will have optics worse than a pedophile nursery school teacher at this rate, while only one candidate is married to a pedophile and plays coverup for the deeds.
If the trend continues Trump is going to go down in crashing defeat. My guess is that the Dems will hold onto all the states Obama won in 2008, and add North Carolina and maybe Arizona to that list. Downballot is probably the most dangerous for them as well. WI and IL were already lost to the GOP. Democratic states lost in a wave election were never going to be held for long. A decent sized loss puts states like NC, FL, NH, PA. Not even including Indiana which goes into a tossup with Evan Bayh running for his old seat. I don't forsee them taking back the house unless Clinton trounces Trump by 8+ points but they will cut into their majority for sure. Of course the situation is still fluid and could easily shift back to Trump as well.
I am beginning to wonder if we won't see a candidate (from either side or both) parachute in sometime in Sept/Oct. as an independent. This thing is just getting so brutal with the fact that Hillary really is a disqualified and horrendous candidate and Trump is a flawed candidate with the media, establishment, and tech moguls all out to smear him.
By October, both of these candidates will have optics worse than a pedophile nursery school teacher at this rate, while only one candidate is married to a pedophile and plays coverup for the deeds.
Too many negatives surrounding Trump. Even if Trump changed immediately and stayed 'on message' going forward, the damage is already done. He has said too many negative things and many Republicans have already said damaging things against him.
At this point Trump is simply digging a deeper and deeper hole every day. There is no way Trump can win at this point.
Too many negatives surrounding Trump. Even if Trump changed immediately and stayed 'on message' going forward, the damage is already done. He has said too many negative things and many Republicans have already said damaging things against him.
At this point Trump is simply digging a deeper and deeper hole every day. There is no way Trump can win at this point.
I think the likelihood of Trump ever staying on message is pretty much impossible
I think that unless something catastrophic happens, Trump is going to get crushed. The irony of this is that no one from CNN or other liberal news sources caused his demise. It was himself. His own pride and ego is ultimately what will cause his defeat in November. I don't even see this as a race anymore so I'm not even really following it much at this point. It's pretty much pointless now. Even before the recent damage was done, he still had a very long shot. Probably the biggest problem was demographics. Although it was stupid of him to go around and insult everyone, even if he had McCain/Romney levels of non-white votes, the demographics have changed even more in many states. I think that unless the Republican party spends a few years re-branding itself, it is going to keep losing elections at this point. I will probably go 3rd party at this point unless something catastrophic happens on either end of the aisle.
(Hillary) Clinton wins similarly to (Bill) Clinton in 1996 or Obama in 2008, if not Clinton in 1992 or worse
Johnson gets 5% of the vote (from a lower turnout and a higher vote going to Johnson and Weld.)
Trump will blame the media for his loss rather than himself for creating the comments that the media used against him.
The House and Senate could very-well turn blue based on Trump, especially in swing states that will see less Republican votes.
1. I suspect the private polls are tighter than anyone wants to admit. Hillary is a deeply unpopular candidate and not a shoe-in by any means.
2 & 3. Third parties will siphon off some votes, but not enough to damage either party.
4. Who knows what states are in play? I suspect CT is in play, and while any Nutmegger will tell you I'm nuts, a steady diet of liberal economics has left CT with a massive debt problem and retirees fleeing. And here in the bluest county of the blue state of NY Trump yard signs outweigh Hillary signs 10-1. Go figure. Unless you drive through Chappaqua.
5&6&7. Who knows? I've never been so confused by the polling. On the one hand you have the MSM pushing hard to create a sense of inevitability for Hillary, that it's all over for Trump, that the GOP should just surrender to Hillary and get what they can before they lose everything in the elections. But is it true?
And does it matter?
Obama took a broken system and hopelessly blew it apart. Under Trump or Hillary big government is just going to keep getting bigger. It's fascinating and a little sad to watch all my friends kids graduate college and head right for DC because that's where all the big money is these days, and it's only getting bigger.
Wait until the debates, and if Julian actually pulls off his supposed October Surprise. Then we'll talk.
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