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The primaries aren't the general election. Clinton was not going to win all those southern counties. Most have been turning more red, even as the most populated areas have been turning more blue. Columbus alone accounted for more Democratic votes than most of those counties' Republican votes combined in 2012. That's why it is getting harder for Republicans to win the state outright. They won in 2000 and especially in 2004 due to an apathetic Democratic turnout. Zero chance of that this year. Even if they show up like 2008/2012, Trump loses, and it's likely to be even worse than that just because Trump isn't going to win Romney or McCain-level support with minorities.
As far as Strickland-Portman, I suspect we'll see much closer results on Election Day.
Everything I see sees GOP coming out with majority of senate seats still.
If you look at the RCP average, IL, WI, NH, PA and IN all flip. NC is very close and a possibility as well, the only pickup possibility for the GOP is NV.
If you look at the RCP average, IL, WI, NH, PA and IN all flip. NC is very close and a possibility as well, the only pickup possibility for the GOP is NV.
3 out of those 5 are not close. NC isn't close in the polls I see either.
The Senate seat was never in the bag. It certainly was thought of as a pickup opportunity. Portman has run a solid campaign,isn't hard right, endorsed Trump, but hasn't exactly embraced him either and kept his distance, is also one of four Republicans in the Senate in favor of SSM and Strickland hasn't run a strong campaign.
I agree on those first 3. I think NH is going to the dems as well. I dunno about Pa. Hope not but we shall see.
A net gain of 4 seats with the White House, or 5 Seats without the White House gets the Democrats the Senate.
As far as PA goes, I think the margin at the top of the ticket will determine it. While there have been a couple close polls in the state, most do show Clinton with a solid advantage with Trump having major problems in suburban Philly. If that holds, the suburban Philly vote likely drags Toomey down as well.
Margin wise I expect Toomey to perform 5-7 points better than Trump. If Clinton wins by more than that Toomey is likely toast.
Everything I see sees GOP coming out with majority of senate seats still.
Look again.
RCP currently has it at 50 each. And since Hillary is going to win, Ds would break the tie.
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