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As is happening in battleground states across the country, Clinton's amassing a large lead in early voting in each of these states. Among those who have already cast their ballots she's up 52-41 in Colorado, 57-36 in Michigan, and 63-32 in Virginia. Trump will be counting on a very strong performance on Election Day to have any chance at taking Michigan and Virginia, and he's probably pretty much already lost Colorado given the volume of early voting there.
Colorado is one of those states that likes to give mixed messages but I always thought it was a FIRM blue state like California and New York... there is just no point in campaigning in that state...
I can't believe you guys are just throwing Nate Silver under the bus like that.
It's a fact that his predictive model is more volatile than the others. Pointing this out =/= throwing him under the bus. That spike in Trump's direction, the one you were just touting? It came from ONE Utah poll, by a C+ rated pollster. That's silly.
Why do you ignore Upshot, PEC, Predictwise, etc? Because they're giving Trump virtually no chance of winning?
PS - According to PPP, the campaigns have stopped ordering public polls, and they won't be conducting any more for this election. The cake is so completely baked, any poll movement beyond point is just meaningless noise.
As is happening in battleground states across the country, Clinton's amassing a large lead in early voting in each of these states. Among those who have already cast their ballots she's up 52-41 in Colorado, 57-36 in Michigan, and 63-32 in Virginia. Trump will be counting on a very strong performance on Election Day to have any chance at taking Michigan and Virginia, and he's probably pretty much already lost Colorado given the volume of early voting there.
I ask how do thy know considering that votes are NOT counted until the polls close the night if the 9th.
It's a fact that his predictive model is more volatile than the others. Pointing this out =/= throwing him under the bus. That spike in Trump's direction, the one you were just touting? It came from ONE Utah poll, by a C+ rated pollster. That's silly.
Why do you ignore Upshot, PEC, Predictwise, etc? Because they're giving Trump virtually no chance of winning?
PS - According to PPP, the campaigns have stopped ordering public polls, and they won't be conducting any more for this election. The cake is so completely baked, any poll movement beyond point is just meaningless noise.
Securing Utah increases Trump's odds of winning. I've been told for over a year how Nate Silver is the gold standard.
Trump's slide stopped and has reversed, nearly back up to his high water mark. The polls boosting his reversal in the last three hours include three unranked and rest B and C grade. We'll see if his little resurgence holds...
Nov. 4, at 3:58 p.m. EDT Clinton 64.3% Trump 35.7%
Nov. 4, at 1:59 p.m. EDT Clinton 66.4% Trump 33.6%
Nov. 4, at 12:52 p.m.EDT Clinton 68.6% Trump 31.3%
Nov. 4, at 10:48 a.m.EDT Clinton 67.7% Trump 32.3%
Nov. 3, at 8:03 p.m. EDT Clinton 66.9% Trump 33.0%
Nov. 3, at 6:17 p.m. EDT Clinton 65.2% Trump 34.8%
Nov. 3, at 11:51a.m. EDT Clinton 63.9% Trump 36.1% << high water mark?
Nov. 2, at 9:31 p.m. EDT Clinton 65.4% Trump 34.5%
Nov. 1, at 6:04 p.m. EDT Clinton 69.6% Trump 30.3%
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