Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
First of all, their sample consisted of 41% democrats, 26% republicans and 33% independents. Is this a representative example of likely voters?
Here's the real story though: INDEPENDENTS. This is the group most likely to be unbiased toward the candidate of either party. If we assume republicans and democrats will heavily favor each party's candidate this late into the election (as the poll indicates), obviously Hillary has an advantage with democrats being more represented in their sample. I doubt this debate is going to inspire a significant number of people to cross party lines. However, let's look beyond the headline grabbing "who won" number. Let's look at how the huge sampling of independents viewed each MAJOR ISSUE facing the country:
With independents:
- Trump +15 on the economy (This is probably the most important issue to voters)
- Trump +14 on terrorism (top 2 or 3 issue for voters)
- Clinton +10 on foreign policy (his first debate and going toe to toe with a former SOS!!!)
- Trump +3 on stronger leader
- Trump +9 on sincerity and authenticity
Trump: better on economy, better on terror, a stronger leader, and more sincere/authentic. Those are arguably the top 4 issues that will decide who becomes president.
According to the methodology, what you are calling independents is actually composed of independents and third party supporters with no indication of the composition of these groups. When you look at how these people intend to vote you will see that half haven't changed their mind and Clinton appears to have picked up more of those that were swayed by the debate (26 vs 22). Overall it doesn't look good for Trump since he doesn't appear to have changed the minds of over 75% of the somewhat up for grabs respondents. It's all about picking up votes and he failed at picking up more than Clinton.
Yes, and especially if they're done by CNN. Other than MSNBC, there is not a more phony-baloney network on this planet. Al-Jazeera is more believable than those two liberal yappers.
You actually think that CNN conducts its own polling?
No, nope, not at all.
From the OP's link:
"Interviews with 521 registered voters who watched the presidential debate conducted by telephone (landline and cell) by ORC International on September 26, 2016."
Interestingly, from the methodology section:
"Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less.
Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error.
Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with
a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "NA".""
I couldn't find anything that stated otherwise, but I wonder if that means that the main table set was weighted.
In any event, that is a really big margin of error.
You actually think that CNN conducts its own polling?
No, nope, not at all.
From the OP's link:
"Interviews with 521 registered voters who watched the presidential debate conducted by telephone (landline and cell) by ORC International on September 26, 2016."
Interestingly, from the methodology section:
"Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less.
Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error.
Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with
a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "NA".""
I couldn't find anything that stated otherwise, but I wonder if that means that the main table set was weighted.
In any event, that is a really big margin of error.
I don't think that the data was weighted since they don't state what criteria the sample was weighted on. Between the large MOE and the inability to be able to report results for many subgroups, I don't think that this poll could be considered representative at all.
You actually think that CNN conducts its own polling?
No, nope, not at all.
From the OP's link:
"Interviews with 521 registered voters who watched the presidential debate conducted by telephone (landline and cell) by ORC International on September 26, 2016."
Interestingly, from the methodology section:
"Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less.
Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error.
Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with
a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "NA".""
I couldn't find anything that stated otherwise, but I wonder if that means that the main table set was weighted.
In any event, that is a really big margin of error.
Aren't polls generally based on 1,000+ individuals surveyed? It would stand to reason that 521 voters surveyed is a bit low for accuracy.
Aren't polls generally based on 1,000+ individuals surveyed? It would stand to reason that 521 voters surveyed is a bit low for accuracy.
A larger sample size is preferable to reduce the margin of error, generally a poll with a sample size of 400 will have a MOE of +/- 5 and 1000 will have about +/- 3. The higher MOE for this poll probably has to do with other sampling factors like it is a sample of a sample. These respondents are people who were polled and agreed to to be called after the debate
I don't think that the data was weighted since they don't state what criteria the sample was weighted on. Between the large MOE and the inability to be able to report results for many subgroups, I don't think that this poll could be considered representative at all.
I read an article that showed up in my FB feed last night that noted that the data weren't weighted due to time constraints.
I agree in general about the poll not being representative, but, I do find it rather amusing how closely the percentages for who won the debate mirrors the poll here on C-D.
Yes, every indication is that Independents believe Trump won the debate.
Hilldog is in trouble.
Even Trump knows he lost. He's busy whining about Lester Holt and his microphone. That's what losers do.
Word has it there is trouble in Trump world. His campaign managers are worried his complete idiocy is going to reflect badly on them. They are busy getting the word out that they TRIED to get him to focus; but he is simply unable.
First of all, their sample consisted of 41% democrats, 26% republicans and 33% independents. Is this a representative example of likely voters?
Here's the real story though: INDEPENDENTS. This is the group most likely to be unbiased toward the candidate of either party. If we assume republicans and democrats will heavily favor each party's candidate this late into the election (as the poll indicates), obviously Hillary has an advantage with democrats being more represented in their sample. I doubt this debate is going to inspire a significant number of people to cross party lines. However, let's look beyond the headline grabbing "who won" number. Let's look at how the huge sampling of independents viewed each MAJOR ISSUE facing the country:
"Question 105A
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
A. The economy"
Trump 56%
Clinton 41%
Question 105B
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
B. Terrorism
Trump 56%
Clinton 42%
Question 105C
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
C. Foreign policy
Trump 43%
Clinton 53%
Question 106A
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump during tonight's debate
A. Seemed to be the stronger leader
Trump 47%
Clinton 44%
Question 106B
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump during tonight's debate
B. Was more sincere and authentic
- Trump +15 on the economy (This is probably the most important issue to voters)
- Trump +14 on terrorism (top 2 or 3 issue for voters)
- Clinton +10 on foreign policy (his first debate and going toe to toe with a former SOS!!!)
- Trump +3 on stronger leader
- Trump +9 on sincerity and authenticity
Trump: better on economy, better on terror, a stronger leader, and more sincere/authentic. Those are arguably the top 4 issues that will decide who becomes president.
Looks like it may be time to revisit your assessment of Independent voters. In the latest poll Independents and 3rd party now make up nearly half of the sample.
- Trump +4 on the economy (A loss of 11 points)
- Trump +7 on terrorism (a loss of 7 points)
- Clinton +28 on foreign policy (a gain of 18 points)
- Clinton +1 on stronger leader (A loss of 4 points for Trump)
Last question wasn't asked
Other interesting points:
In the 4 way choice likely independent voters lean more to Clinton than Trump (43% to 36%). In the 2 way it is 50% vs. 41%
Of the Independents that are supporting Hilary, 55% of those are doing so because they oppose Trump where as of those who are supporting Trump, only 45% are doing so because they oppose Clinton.
Considering that the majority of the interviews were conducted before the tax information leaked things are not looking good for Trump when it comes to Independents.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
