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First of all, their sample consisted of 41% democrats, 26% republicans and 33% independents. Is this a representative example of likely voters?
Here's the real story though: INDEPENDENTS. This is the group most likely to be unbiased toward the candidate of either party. If we assume republicans and democrats will heavily favor each party's candidate this late into the election (as the poll indicates), obviously Hillary has an advantage with democrats being more represented in their sample. I doubt this debate is going to inspire a significant number of people to cross party lines. However, let's look beyond the headline grabbing "who won" number. Let's look at how the huge sampling of independents viewed each MAJOR ISSUE facing the country:
"Question 105A
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
A. The economy"
Trump 56%
Clinton 41%
Question 105B
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
B. Terrorism
Trump 56%
Clinton 42%
Question 105C
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
C. Foreign policy
Trump 43%
Clinton 53%
Question 106A
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump during tonight's debate
A. Seemed to be the stronger leader
Trump 47%
Clinton 44%
Question 106B
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump during tonight's debate
B. Was more sincere and authentic
- Trump +15 on the economy (This is probably the most important issue to voters)
- Trump +14 on terrorism (top 2 or 3 issue for voters)
- Clinton +10 on foreign policy (his first debate and going toe to toe with a former SOS!!!)
- Trump +3 on stronger leader
- Trump +9 on sincerity and authenticity
Trump: better on economy, better on terror, a stronger leader, and more sincere/authentic. Those are arguably the top 4 issues that will decide who becomes president.
Last edited by eddiehaskell; 09-28-2016 at 12:15 AM..
Question 105B
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
B. Terrorism
Trump 56%
Clinton 42%
You posted the wrong result. According to the document you linked to, THIS is the result:
Quote:
Question 105B
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
B. Terrorism
Total Men Women White Non-White
----- ----- ----- ----- ---------
Clinton 54% 49% 59% 47% N/A
Trump 43% 49% 38% 50% N/A
Both Equally 1% * 1% 1% N/A
Neither 1% 1% 1% 1% N/A
No opinion 1% 1% 2% 2% N/A
Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.0
Hillary is beating Trump 54% to 43% on terrorism.
.
"Question 105A
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
A. The economy"
Trump 56%
Clinton 41%
This is not true. According to the document you linked to, THIS is the result:
Quote:
Question 105A
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump would better handle each of the following issues:
A. The economy
Total Men Women White Non-White
----- ----- ----- ----- ---------
Clinton 51% 47% 54% 44% N/A
Trump 47% 50% 44% 53% N/A
Both Equally 2% 2% 2% 2% N/A
Neither 1% 1% * 1% N/A
No opinion * * * * N/A
Hillary is beating Trump 51% to 47% according to the poll you cited.
.
LOL. You have to dig really, really deep to find sometime positive about trump, don't you?
Forget all the noise, the below survey from the poll is what's telling:
Based on what Hillary Clinton said and did in tonight’s debate, do you think she would be able
to handle the job of president if she is elected?
Yes 67%
No 32%
No opinion 2%
Based on what Donald Trump said and did in tonight’s debate, do you think he would be able to
handle the job of president if he is elected?
Yes 43%
No 55%
No opinion 2%
.
As I pointed out their sample consisted of 41% democrats/33% independents vs 26% republicans. That's not a sample that represents likely voters. Therefore, questions addressed to the entire group will be skewed toward Clinton.
What really matters is ****VOTES****.
Let's look at how independents answered that one....
more likely to vote Clinton 26%
more likely to vote Trump 24%
no effect on vote 50%
no opinion 1%
So when it comes to changing the minds of independents, they essentially tied (sample error +/- 4.5%).
Question 106A
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump during tonight's debate
A. Seemed to be the stronger leader
Trump 47%
Clinton 44%
Again, you are way, way OFF.
Quote:
Question 106A
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one
better described Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump during tonight's debate
A. Seemed to be the stronger leader
Total Men Women White Non-White
----- ----- ----- ----- ---------
Clinton 56% 50% 62% 50% N/A
Trump 39% 47% 32% 45% N/A
Both Equally 1% 1% 1% 1% N/A
Neither 3% 2% 4% 3% N/A
No opinion 1% * 1% 1% N/A
Hillary is beating Trump 56% to 39% on being the stronger leader.
You need to re-read my post. I'm looking at independents.
Stop wasting your time eddie, liberals don't understand polls much less numbers. That's why the national debt under Obama is inching towards $20 trillion and his minions remain clueless.
Every time I was polled, I always claim to be an independent. Just to give you an idea.
Nowadays, many Republicans are claiming to be independent.
.
According to a Pew Research study I'm looking at, 48% of independents identify or lean democratic and 39% identify or lean republican.
Therefore, among a group that is skewed democratic, the debate caused an equal number of people to be more likely to vote for each candidate (26% vs 24%).
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