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Old 10-03-2016, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Middle of nowhere
20,332 posts, read 10,448,010 times
Reputation: 7964

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
No. That isn't the case. Obama got 95% of that vote. Hillary is getting 69%.

That's a 26% drop!!!! You got it backwards on who is doing the killing.

If these numbers are true, she has no mathematical chance in winning the election.
Obama didn't get 95% of the non white vote.
In 2012 Obama got 93 percent of African-Americans, 71 percent of Hispanics, and 73 percent of Asians.
Romney took a higher percentage of whites, blacks and hispanics and still lost.

How Groups Voted in 2012 - Roper Center

Whites
Trump 53% Romney 59%

Blacks
Trump 2% Romney 6%

Hispanics
Trump 19% Romney 27%

All men
Trump 54% Romney 52%

All women
Trump 36% Romney 44%
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Old 10-03-2016, 02:45 PM
 
3,393 posts, read 4,336,862 times
Reputation: 2230
IIRC Romney hit those #s with 70% with white voters in the electorate and still lost. While Clinton may not mobilize AA voters to the same degree as Obama, Trump is doing much worse among Hispanics and even Asians. Add in that the country is even less white than 4 years ago and he is at a big disadvantage. Another odd quirk is that educated whites (who are typically much more likely to vote) are switching from R to D at pretty much the same rate Clinton is bleeding none college educated whites. Hillary can make up for the rural manufacturing/coal votes in PA by sweeping the Philly suburbs.


In the end it will come down to individual states. And I think Trumps sorry showing with blacks, Hispanics, gays and Jews- plus the failed deal to do business in Communist Cuba- will pretty much sink him in Florida. If Hillary holds CO and NM, Florida alone would make up for losing all the other swing states.

Edited my first line for clarity.
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Old 10-03-2016, 02:57 PM
 
45,169 posts, read 17,936,731 times
Reputation: 18915
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace Rothstein View Post
Why do you keep repeating something that isn't true?
Because it's Completely true.

From 2012 election (in 1000s)
  • 132,948 voted
  • 98,041 - White = 74%
  • 17,813 - Black = 13%
  • 3,904 - Asian = 3%
  • 11,188 - Hispanic = 8.4%
Source is 2013 American Survey conducted by the US Census.

Note, the US Census does not consider Hispanic a race, but broke it out as indicated. In general most Hispanics identify as White. So I'm being very generous.

i.e. Hillary is the one getting killed by those numbers.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:16 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
1,982 posts, read 1,808,115 times
Reputation: 1525
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Because it's Completely true.

From 2012 election (in 1000s)
  • 132,948 voted
  • 98,041 - White = 74%
  • 17,813 - Black = 13%
  • 3,904 - Asian = 3%
  • 11,188 - Hispanic = 8.4%
Source is 2013 American Survey conducted by the US Census.

Note, the US Census does not consider Hispanic a race, but broke it out as indicated. In general most Hispanics identify as White. So I'm being very generous.

i.e. Hillary is the one getting killed by those numbers.
White turnout was 72% and it is shrinking every election.

How Groups Voted in 2012 - Roper Center
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:19 PM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,109,215 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
He also said that Trump had a 2% chance of winning nomination. This speaks for itself.
Yeah, but funny how you guys have no issue quoting him when Trump is doing good.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:22 PM
 
Location: North America
14,210 posts, read 10,109,215 times
Reputation: 5547
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Hillary is facing landslide losses.

She has lost the middle class whether they have college education or not.

If this is true, there is no mathematically way she can win the election

This is one of those fun threads that we can bring back up if Clinton wins. Nobody is winning by a landslide. If either one was doing that it would have shown up in the polls by now. The problem with the white vote is that it's not equal in each state. Usually the GOP creams the Democrats by huge margins in the South and parts of the Midwest but not as much in other areas. So getting 32-38 percent of them is misleading. It depends on where you are losing them and the kinds of voters you are losing.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:48 PM
 
7,085 posts, read 2,516,831 times
Reputation: 3581
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
This is one of those fun threads that we can bring back up if Clinton wins. Nobody is winning by a landslide. If either one was doing that it would have shown up in the polls by now. The problem with the white vote is that it's not equal in each state. Usually the GOP creams the Democrats by huge margins in the South and parts of the Midwest but not as much in other areas. So getting 32-38 percent of them is misleading. It depends on where you are losing them and the kinds of voters you are losing.
True,

In 2012, Romney received 59% of the n/h white vote, but the lowest percentages he received in the states of the Old Confederacy was 61% in both FL and VA. The next lowest was NC was where Romney won 68% of the n/h white vote and managed to win by 2%. Everywhere else in the old CSA, Romney received 70+% or more.
What does that mean. Romney's 59% national % was inflated by those southern states. When you got to the battleground states, Romney was below the national average, to a point where in a few states, such as IA and NH, Obama actually received a majority, rather than just a plurality of the n/h white vote.

As far as Kitty saying that 74% of voters in 2012 were white, this has come up before. She has a phobia about the number of whites decreasing so she tries to split the Hispanic vote on the amount of pigmentation they have rather than making it about how they vote as a group.
You have to specify non-Hispanic whites to her, even though for purposes where voting patterns are concerned "white" is generally assumed to be "white non-Hispanic."

Last edited by Bureaucat; 10-03-2016 at 04:13 PM..
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:51 PM
 
45,169 posts, read 17,936,731 times
Reputation: 18915
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace Rothstein View Post
White turnout was 72% and it is shrinking every election.
First you accused me of telling untrue things. I prove otherwise using US Census as source. Now you want to do battle of the Web Links which I don't do.

I've proved what I said.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:52 PM
 
45,169 posts, read 17,936,731 times
Reputation: 18915
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
Yeah, but funny how you guys have no issue quoting him when Trump is doing good.
Nope, I've made post after post, even before the nomination on how Nate Silver and all pollsters are not getting it right about this election.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:54 PM
 
Location: NOVA
4,521 posts, read 5,234,330 times
Reputation: 1928
Exclamation Trump beats Hillary

Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Nope, I've made post after post, even before the nomination on how Nate Silver and all pollsters are not getting it right about this election.
That is huge. Surprising too.

Great research.
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