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Old 10-12-2016, 01:58 PM
Status: "Trump: Inept, Incompetent, Insecure" (set 1 day ago)
 
10,504 posts, read 6,199,370 times
Reputation: 7232

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I feel empathy for the OP, so I shall give her words of comfort.


It is true that not all is lost. Donald John Trump (recall, that one should use his whole name, as Rush and others herein did for President Obama, because that was his whole name) still has a chance to win.


The chance depends wholly on Mr. Trump turning this about in the next 25 days, by mending fences to the various groups he has offended over the past year. In addition, Hillary Rodham Clinton must also make some huge mistake, a mistake that makes all of Mr. Trumps' sins seem minor in comparison.


Yet my words of comfort cannot hide the unfortunate fact that when Mr. Trump said that he considers himself 'free of my shackles', that he seems intent on not mending fences. Indeed, since he made his declaration of being 'shackle free', he has begun striking out at fellow Republicans.


Now, there are some whom do not, for instance, care for Paul Ryan or John McCain. However, it is also a cold, hard fact that there are many whom do like these two gentlemen. I believe that Senator McCain, for instance, is highly regarded by the veterans, both for his war record and his stance on their behalf. Yet, by going after Mr. McCain, Mr. Trump is going to reopen the 'I don't like people who are captured' wound. Further, many believe that Mr. Ryan is a tried-and-true Conservative, and has always been so, and will always be, and so they view with askance Mr. Trump belittling him. Recall that Mr. Trump was once a Democrat too, as well as a member of the Reform party.


Nevertheless! Mr. Trump may still prevail. It is a narrow ledge, but he may manage to make it across. It may well be that the polls are completely wrong. That he enjoys high favor with the black community, with the Hispanic community, and with the educated people of this country. There may be literally millions of 'low educated white men' that have hidden themselves from view every caucus year, and will spring out next November 8th to make their voices known.


So do not give up! Stay true! Even if Mr. Trump loses, there is no shame in continuing to bleat for weeks afterwards that Mr. Trump in fact won! Indeed, we expect it of you.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:03 PM
 
34,361 posts, read 41,436,735 times
Reputation: 29842
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secchamps98 View Post
Although i am not a big Trump fan my wife and I will be voting for him. We are both highly educated with good incomes.
We don't agree with many things he says, but honestly, we are disgusted by HRC even more. I don't understand how any one with any moral compass could vote for her. .

The whole smear campaign against Hillary is an election strategy Trump is using to deflect from the fact that he is a political novice with no clue how to run the country,he says nothing of substance and all his bluster is directed at trashing Hillary.As you claim to be highly educated i'd have thought you would see through the obvious bs.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:11 PM
 
1,432 posts, read 916,537 times
Reputation: 333
Quote:
Originally Posted by OscarTheGrouch View Post
How inaccurate do you think they are? You are right - they all have small errors, some being biased one way, some biased the other but the more of them you aggregate the smaller that error gets. In order for them to be biased in one direction as a whole the individual polls would need to be off by tens of points.
I think they can be very inaccurate. I stopped looking at them after while, seems to be always using such a disproportional amount of Dems in their sampling. There are alot of sources, but the below source suggests Dem 33%, Rep 29, Indep 34% in the US. These are fluid understandable, but when I see polls with 37-38% sampling of Dems, I know that the numbers are way off. This doesn't take into account likelihood of voting, which also has a big impact of number. So these polls could easily be 5% off in either direction easily - enough to turn over many states. I disagree with you about aggregating, as averaging many erroneous polls do not make the average better regarding accuracy, but only less variability in the margin of error.

From pew Research Center
The Parties on the Eve of the 2016 Election: Two Coalitions, Moving Further Apart | Pew Research Center

Example below

Skewed Polls showing HC winning (hypothetical)

+5, +6, +7, +2 = Avg +5 ahead

True Polls

-1, +1, +3, 0 = Avg 0.75 ahead

So, averaging does increase accuracy of measurement, only a decrease in the variability range. Old mantra, garbage in = garbage out
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:13 PM
 
1,432 posts, read 916,537 times
Reputation: 333
Quote:
Originally Posted by jambo101 View Post
The whole smear campaign against Hillary is an election strategy Trump is using to deflect from the fact that he is a political novice with no clue how to run the country,he says nothing of substance and all his bluster is directed at trashing Hillary.As you claim to be highly educated i'd have thought you would see through the obvious bs.
I see through all that, but I care about tax policy. I am tired of being told to pay more, and seeing incompetents running this country. I don't know if Trump could do better than HC, but I know he owuld deligate to good people. HC is morally bankrupt, and out to raise taxes to keep her base. I can't see how how HC supporters are so deaf that they can not see that she is such a corrupt person...
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:16 PM
 
10,886 posts, read 6,094,065 times
Reputation: 5856
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secchamps98 View Post
I think they can be very inaccurate. I stopped looking at them after while, seems to be always using such a disproportional amount of Dems in their sampling. There are alot of sources, but the below source suggests Dem 33%, Rep 29, Indep 34% in the US. These are fluid understandable, but when I see polls with 37-38% sampling of Dems, I know that the numbers are way off. This doesn't take into account likelihood of voting, which also has a big impact of number. So these polls could easily be 5% off in either direction easily - enough to turn over many states. I disagree with you about aggregating, as averaging many erroneous polls do not make the average better regarding accuracy, but only less variability in the margin of error.

From pew Research Center
The Parties on the Eve of the 2016 Election: Two Coalitions, Moving Further Apart | Pew Research Center

Example below

Skewed Polls showing HC winning (hypothetical)

+5, +6, +7, +2 = Avg +5 ahead

True Polls

-1, +1, +3, 0 = Avg 0.75 ahead

So, averaging does increase accuracy of measurement, only a decrease in the variability range. Old mantra, garbage in = garbage out
Unskewed polls? Seriously? So much for the highly educated claim. Go back and read about unskewed polls in 2012 and really educate yourself.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:17 PM
 
497 posts, read 301,262 times
Reputation: 576
You are assuming a systematic error - ie every poll is biased the same way, which is clearly not true. Look at the mean-reverted bias:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Some polls are biased one way, others are biased the other way. When you average a large number of polls with such variability in their bias you end up reducing your bias. This is fairly basic statistics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Secchamps98 View Post
I think they can be very inaccurate. I stopped looking at them after while, seems to be always using such a disproportional amount of Dems in their sampling. There are alot of sources, but the below source suggests Dem 33%, Rep 29, Indep 34% in the US. These are fluid understandable, but when I see polls with 37-38% sampling of Dems, I know that the numbers are way off. This doesn't take into account likelihood of voting, which also has a big impact of number. So these polls could easily be 5% off in either direction easily - enough to turn over many states. I disagree with you about aggregating, as averaging many erroneous polls do not make the average better regarding accuracy, but only less variability in the margin of error.

From pew Research Center
The Parties on the Eve of the 2016 Election: Two Coalitions, Moving Further Apart | Pew Research Center

Example below

Skewed Polls showing HC winning (hypothetical)

+5, +6, +7, +2 = Avg +5 ahead

True Polls

-1, +1, +3, 0 = Avg 0.75 ahead

So, averaging does increase accuracy of measurement, only a decrease in the variability range. Old mantra, garbage in = garbage out
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:20 PM
 
1,432 posts, read 916,537 times
Reputation: 333
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeyJude514 View Post
Unskewed polls? Seriously? So much for the highly educated claim. Go back and read about unskewed polls in 2012 and really educate yourself.
Where did I say unskewed polls? What would 2012 have to do with this? I made an argument that averaging skewed polls do not lead to a better average. Sorry you couldn't understand the point.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:28 PM
 
10,886 posts, read 6,094,065 times
Reputation: 5856
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secchamps98 View Post
Where did I say unskewed polls? What would 2012 have to do with this? I made an argument that averaging skewed polls do not lead to a better average. Sorry you couldn't understand the point.
You used the terms "skewed polls" versus "true polls." What do you mean by the term "true" polls if not the opposite of the "skewed" ones? You might not have used the term, but it's obvious that's what you meant.

The skewed versus the true (i.e. unskewed) polls is the argument many Romney fans made in 2012. They, like you, didn't believe the pollsters knew how to weight their polls. Romney believed it, too, which is why he had a fireworks display ready to go off when he was declared the winner, and he never wrote a concession speech.

But on election night it turned out that the pollsters--who do this for a living--knew exactly how to weight the polls and they called the election correctly.

But go ahead and believe you know more than the pollsters. You certainly won't be the first to look foolish on election night.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:28 PM
 
3,293 posts, read 1,885,771 times
Reputation: 3676
Quote:
Originally Posted by bentlebee View Post
The enthusiasm among Trump supporters is tremendous and it seems the movement is more motivated and energized than before.

Clinton has the media in her corner and all the puppets on a string and they keep throwing things up and all that is falling is Washington insiders who are disliked already by so may people!

Forget about McCain, Paul Ryan who lost as running VP 4 years ago, etc.

All of them can easily be replaced and it is like the Democrats are scrambling what to do about the energizing bunny called Trump who seems to be unstoppable.

Many people are getting more respect for the man who has showed to be able to withstand bullies and the toughest circumstances that not many of us can with stand!
Ferdinand,
Your post is utterly delusional. Trump is tanking in the polls. Even the LA Times poll, which has been ridiculously pro-Trump since the beginning, no longer has him leading. It doesn't matter how enthusiastic the supporters are if only 40% of the country are supporters.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Florida
21,660 posts, read 11,117,335 times
Reputation: 7888
It is not over till the fat lady Hillary falls on her face.
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