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Old 12-23-2023, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Northern California
130,230 posts, read 12,093,129 times
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If he loses, will he drop out, or will he cry "foul" again? Or he does not perform as well as he thinks he should.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...f-him-8a7d10ad


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-support-iowa/

I find it interesting that the Evangelical person in Iowa, says he is not seeing the grass roots support this tiem around. ( for Trump )
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Old 12-23-2023, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Central Massachusetts
6,594 posts, read 7,087,216 times
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that will mean that the GOP has come to its senses somewhat.
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Old 12-23-2023, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,218 posts, read 22,361,490 times
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According to an ARG poll, Hayley is only 4 points behind Trump in New Hampshire now.

It was bound to happen. Trump has been up to his eyebrows in trouble for months now, and I figured it would come back and hit him eventually.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ll/ar-AA1lUexM
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Old 12-25-2023, 05:28 AM
 
13,684 posts, read 9,006,517 times
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One problem for Mr. Trump is that he is raising expectations. For instance, in October he said that he was up by 47 points in Iowa:



https://www.iowapublicradio.org/poli...oux-city-crowd


Usually he does not cite a specific number, but merely says 'huge numbers' or such.



Now, if he wins the Republican Iowa caucuses by, say, 10 points (still a very healthy win), would pundits be claiming that he under-performed? Yes indeed. Even 30 points will be viewed by some as under-performing.



There is also the factor that if you tell your followers that you will be blowing out your opponents by massive numbers, then some voters will feel more comfortable staying home, should the weather be inclement in parts of Iowa (you must be physically present at a Republican Iowa caucus).
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Old 12-25-2023, 07:01 AM
 
19,837 posts, read 12,099,283 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evening sun View Post
If he loses, will he drop out, or will he cry "foul" again? Or he does not perform as well as he thinks he should.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...f-him-8a7d10ad


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-support-iowa/

I find it interesting that the Evangelical person in Iowa, says he is not seeing the grass roots support this tiem around. ( for Trump )
Vander Plaats is an activist who ran for governor and failed in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Take what he says with a grain of salt.
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Old 12-25-2023, 08:04 AM
 
30,156 posts, read 11,783,240 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by legalsea View Post
One problem for Mr. Trump is that he is raising expectations. For instance, in October he said that he was up by 47 points in Iowa:

https://www.iowapublicradio.org/poli...oux-city-crowd

Usually he does not cite a specific number, but merely says 'huge numbers' or such.

Now, if he wins the Republican Iowa caucuses by, say, 10 points (still a very healthy win), would pundits be claiming that he under-performed? Yes indeed. Even 30 points will be viewed by some as under-performing.

He will say I was up by 47 points and then suddenly I am only up by 10. And make that as proof they were trying to steal the election. And MAGA will parrot that comment.
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Old 12-26-2023, 03:13 AM
 
33,321 posts, read 12,516,741 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
He will say I was up by 47 points and then suddenly I am only up by 10. And make that as proof they were trying to steal the election. And MAGA will parrot that comment.

Beat me to it.
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Old 12-31-2023, 10:02 AM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
99,555 posts, read 4,491,552 times
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Trump will order his angry supporters to march to the State Capitol in Des Moines. Who knows what will happen then?
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Old 12-31-2023, 10:18 AM
 
10,752 posts, read 4,342,219 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
According to an ARG poll, Hayley is only 4 points behind Trump in New Hampshire now.

It was bound to happen. Trump has been up to his eyebrows in trouble for months now, and I figured it would come back and hit him eventually.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ll/ar-AA1lUexM
Except the average poll is what matters, not the ARG poll.
One poll alone is meaningless.
New Hampshire polling average:
Trump 46.3
Haley 24.8
https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol.../new-hampshire
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Old 12-31-2023, 06:11 PM
 
Location: Kansas
25,962 posts, read 22,113,827 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAalot View Post
Except the average poll is what matters, not the ARG poll.
One poll alone is meaningless.
New Hampshire polling average:
Trump 46.3
Haley 24.8
https://www.realclearpolling.com/pol.../new-hampshire
Yeah, when I read the thread title, I thought "Why would he do badly, as it isn't the others have a chance?"

Haley can't keep her foot out of her mouth, and her hand out of the pockets of the defense contractors. More is revealed about her each day. I read that while she is getting a lot of money from billionaires, she simply doesn't have any grass root support or volunteers, so maybe it take more than campaign dollars to win a primary - I would sure like to think so!

I really don't understand how Haley surpassed DeSantis either in the polling, or maybe in reality, she didn't. We'll see!
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