Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
No, that's Trump. He has COMPLETELY alienated the Philly suburb voters and he can't win without them
Too bad Trumpster.
How has he alienated them? They know what the alternative is all about and have lived it for decades. The supreme court is what everyone needs to be looking at. Not the tip of their noses.
The average Trump voter?
Have you seen the independent support? It is YUGE!
Quote:
The biggest shift is among independent voters, who go from 42 – 35 percent for Trump,
with 15 percent for Johnson September 26 to 46 – 32 percent for Clinton, with 10 percent for
Johnson today. Republicans back Trump 87 – 5 percent while Democrats back Clinton 89 – 3
percent.
The Democrats will win Philadelphia and surrounding counties, as well as Allegheny (Pittsburgh), and Centre County (Penn State). That's all they need - Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are huge and count for the bulk of the population. The rest are pretty rural.
There were signs that Pennsylvania might be in play before Trump's campaign started to explode. It's a left-leaning swing state, like North Carolina is for the Republicans (being a right-leaning swing state). It usually goes Democrat but it could go Republican with the right candidate.
Of the Counties mentioned, Lehigh, Dauphin, and Lackawanna Counties are some of the heaviest Independent vote, that has been in line with Trumps policy on the issues facing the nation, Jobs and Trade and especially the Supreme Court deal.
So, further analysis is needed.
It still speaks tight... very tight. Pennexit tight.
Lackawanna COULD go trump since it's a very blue collar county. Dauphin County ways votes Democrat, and this is where Harrisburg is. The counties bordering Dauphin always vote Republican. Lehigh is swing, but with the Puerto Ricans and blacks in Allentown it could go blue reliably.
How many were Bernie supporters that will never vote Hillary?
How many of those Black Americans, that see education, trade and jobs as a big issue to their prosperity and Democrats have made it worse not better?
Where is the enthusiasm in this election?
This election has been nothing like any election we have ever witnessed in our lives.
What is to be expected, never materializes.
Most people don't see trade as a huge deal. When it really comes down to it just like immigration only a small sub set of voters care about trade deals. Hence Trumps problem appealing outside of his base.
How has he alienated them? They know what the alternative is all about and have lived it for decades. The supreme court is what everyone needs to be looking at. Not the tip of their noses.
They are educated moderately conservative voters. A high proportion of which are female voters. Trumps bombastic rhetoric is a turn off to them and he doesn't really appeal to them on the issues. Kind of like when he went into Nova talking about factories shutting down when the average person there is making nearly 100k off of government work.
Yes, Trump supporters just need to ignore the polls, and go out and vote.
The polls, and projections of Hillary being ahead are based on Hillary getting the same turnout as Obama.
Hillary is not going to get the same turnout as Obama, and everybody knows it.
The emails leaks are very damning, and show Hillary's campaign have belittled almost every demographic.
Hillary was already going to have a serious problem with turnout, add to that her campaign is alienation most voters, and many dems are just not going to bother to go out and vote on election day.
The polls, and projections of Hillary being ahead are based on Hillary getting the same turnout as Obama.
That's close - the polling methodology is based on the election results of the previous 1 or 2 previous elections - and don't include those that didn't vote or those that are newly registered.
BUT - 2012 Results were:
Obama = 65,915,796 votes for 51.19%.
Romney = 60,933,500 votes for 47.32%. ......... a difference of 3.8% Nationally (5.38 in Pennsylvania)
NONE of the polls (with the possible exception of the LA Times has a weighting of 3.8%.
Sometimes to weighting is as much as 11-12%. They Lower the R and increase the D.
NONE of the Polls take into account the New Voter Registrations OR the Registered Voters who didn't VOTE.
NONE of the Polls take into account the Historic Primary Results.
It's time to start looking (guessing) at how many Voters we think will actually Turn Out to vote.
Will it be greater or smaller than 66,000 for Democrats ? (numbers dropped from 2008)
Will it be greater or smaller than 61,000 for Republicans ?
I think smaller for Democrats and greater for Republicans ..... strangest election cycle I've ever seen.
The polls, and projections of Hillary being ahead are based on Hillary getting the same turnout as Obama.
That's close - the polling methodology is based on the election results of the previous 1 or 2 previous elections - and don't include those that didn't vote or those that are newly registered.
BUT - 2012 Results were:
Obama = 65,915,796 votes for 51.19%.
Romney = 60,933,500 votes for 47.32%. ......... a difference of 3.8% Nationally (5.38 in Pennsylvania)
NONE of the polls (with the possible exception of the LA Times has a weighting of 3.8%.
Sometimes to weighting is as much as 11-12%. They Lower the R and increase the D.
NONE of the Polls take into account the New Voter Registrations OR the Registered Voters who didn't VOTE.
NONE of the Polls take into account the Historic Primary Results.
It's time to start looking (guessing) at how many Voters we think will actually Turn Out to vote.
Will it be greater or smaller than 66,000 for Democrats ? (numbers dropped from 2008)
Will it be greater or smaller than 61,000 for Republicans ?
I think smaller for Democrats and greater for Republicans ..... strangest election cycle I've ever seen.
Early voting and registration in a few states says that's not likely going to be true. For example, in FL Republicans registered 66000 or so new voters the entire year. Democrats have registered over 550000 and counting. They have also halved the absentee ballot advantage that the GOP had in 2008. Then again they are way down in requests in Ohio and Iowa. The Republicans are as well, but not nearly as much. Of course Iowa is based on the 2014 absentee voting which was very high for the GOP. They are outpacing the 2012 absentee voting though. Anyway, it doesn't seem to be that the Democrats are going to have depressed turnout. Now of course on election day the GOP could turn out a ton of voters to overcome this. They aren't registering much in the way of new voters to show that right now is all.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
