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The question asked is a double edge sword. If this was a "normal Cycle "I would think they are close.
Today the media is so partisan every number produced is suspected of being Skewed ???
Trump has certainly defied odds and Clinton has enjoyed over rated results. One has to wonder about John Podesta party with the Media in secret and what was discussed.
We can all agree that the number have not reflected what is going on the ground!
"But guys like us, we don't pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in "reality." And reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
One of the emerging themes of the last weeks of the presidential campaign is the resurgence of the right’s “unskewed polls” theory, which holds that when Republicans are behind it’s because the pollsters are sampling the wrong people.
In 2012 this was taken so seriously that Election Night on Fox News was a legendary train wreck as Karl Rove and other guru pundits had to eat their words. There are other theories about “missing white voters” who are being activated by the appeal of Republican nominee Donald Trump to their economic anxieties and the “shy” Trump voters who are afraid to tell pollsters that they really like him.
...
"The IBD survey did not publish the partisan breakdown of registered voters but did release unweighted and weighted counts of likely voters. The survey's unweighted sample found Democrats and Republicans tied on party identification (32 percent apiece), while weighted likely voters showed Democrats with a seven-point edge in party identification (35 percent to 29 percent). That margin is about similar to the average of party identification in recent live-interviewer phone surveys of likely voters by the Huffington Post, 36 percent Democratic and 31 percent Republican."
Also search on the Atlas polling recommendations from wikileaks and see the poll-rigging recommendations game your team is playing.
yes, I know, it's all from the russians/their fault and personal responsibility doesn't exist on your team.
"The IBD survey did not publish the partisan breakdown of registered voters but did release unweighted and weighted counts of likely voters. The survey's unweighted sample found Democrats and Republicans tied on party identification (32 percent apiece), while weighted likely voters showed Democrats with a seven-point edge in party identification (35 percent to 29 percent). That margin is about similar to the average of party identification in recent live-interviewer phone surveys of likely voters by the Huffington Post, 36 percent Democratic and 31 percent Republican."
Also search on the Atlas polling recommendations from wikileaks and see the poll-rigging recommendations game your team is playing.
yes, I know, it's all from the russians/their fault and personal responsibility doesn't exist on your team.
Yes, what I figured. You don't understand what oversampling is, nor the different between internal and public polling.
"The IBD survey did not publish the partisan breakdown of registered voters but did release unweighted and weighted counts of likely voters."
Who cares about weighted/unweighted when the partisan breakdown of registered voter information wasn't released? Kind of important to be registered I think in order to vote...but then again in this day in age....
If polls are going to play a guessing game, all information should be released in my view.
And you conveniently didn't comment on the wikileaks/atlas voting recommendation by your team on how to over-sample. Like to get your comment on the games your team is playing/their interest in poll over sampling without the typical "it's the russians fault!" defense.
I accept the premise of the thread, as long as you agree to stop making up excuses as to how the polls are skewed, or non-representative when he loses.
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