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Old 11-09-2016, 12:34 AM
 
26,969 posts, read 15,187,034 times
Reputation: 11956

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Highly respected statistician Sam Wang at Princeton University does continuously updated statistical analysis of polls. He has analyzed prior elections and one of the key factors he has calculated is how fast do polls move, not just one poll, but all of them together. In other words, when all polls shift two points, they do not shift instantly or overnight. It takes a number of days for the opinions of millions of people to change.

Based on where the polls are today with just 5 days left, Wang's calculations show that there is not enough time remaining for Trump to catch and pass Clinton. You can see it on the Median EV Estimator chart here. The red band is the maximum change with 66% certainty, while the yellow has 99% certainty. Since the yellow band is higher than 270 for Clinton, the stats say it is extremely unlikely for Trump to win.




This guy needs a new model.


Lose his number.

 
Old 02-01-2018, 11:15 PM
 
Location: The 719
17,940 posts, read 27,373,653 times
Reputation: 17237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Highly respected statistician Sam Wang at Princeton University does continuously updated statistical analysis of polls. He has analyzed prior elections and one of the key factors he has calculated is how fast do polls move, not just one poll, but all of them together. In other words, when all polls shift two points, they do not shift instantly or overnight. It takes a number of days for the opinions of millions of people to change.

Based on where the polls are today with just 5 days left, Wang's calculations show that there is not enough time remaining for Trump to catch and pass Clinton. You can see it on the Median EV Estimator chart here. The red band is the maximum change with 66% certainty, while the yellow has 99% certainty. Since the yellow band is higher than 270 for Clinton, the stats say it is extremely unlikely for Trump to win.

Higher than 270 for Clinton? Funny how y'all could count Electoral College Votes pre-Election.
 
Old 02-02-2018, 01:58 AM
 
4,655 posts, read 4,102,492 times
Reputation: 9012
Quote:
Originally Posted by McGowdog View Post
Higher than 270 for Clinton? Funny how y'all could count Electoral College Votes pre-Election.
This Wang guy probably should have read the wikileaks. If he had, he would have known that the Democrat party and media actively colluded to rig polls by oversampling Democrats.

A poll is only as good the people taking it, meaning in this case, they all stunk like ****.
 
Old 02-02-2018, 11:00 AM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,886,683 times
Reputation: 6927
Wang it! Got that one wrong.
 
Old 02-02-2018, 11:30 AM
 
Location: USA
30,740 posts, read 21,872,773 times
Reputation: 18923
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
Wang it! Got that one wrong.
Wang is a natural for head of the DNC.
 
Old 02-02-2018, 11:43 AM
 
10,513 posts, read 5,142,311 times
Reputation: 14056
LOL, the same Trumpsters who trash the polls are now touting his rising poll numbers!

Conservatives hated the polls before they loved them...
 
Old 02-02-2018, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,099 posts, read 18,921,258 times
Reputation: 26011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
LOL, the same Trumpsters who trash the polls are now touting his rising poll numbers!

Conservatives hated the polls before they loved them...
As Trump points out, even the Fake Polls are starting to come around. Most polls exist solely for the purpose of advancing the liberal/globalist agenda.

Still Wang Chunging
 
Old 02-02-2018, 04:12 PM
 
Location: USA
30,740 posts, read 21,872,773 times
Reputation: 18923
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
LOL, the same Trumpsters who trash the polls are now touting his rising poll numbers!

Conservatives hated the polls before they loved them...
Apparently they know to add 10+ points to any poll. Anyway, Trumpsters can easily take the high road against the Rapist Clinton and the Nation destroying Obama. Ever notice what ever Leftist accuse Trump of "anything" they have done the same thing but much worse.
 
Old 02-03-2018, 11:28 AM
 
3,759 posts, read 5,296,763 times
Reputation: 6188
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Highly respected statistician Sam Wang at Princeton University does continuously updated statistical analysis of polls. He has analyzed prior elections and one of the key factors he has calculated is how fast do polls move, not just one poll, but all of them together. In other words, when all polls shift two points, they do not shift instantly or overnight. It takes a number of days for the opinions of millions of people to change.

Based on where the polls are today with just 5 days left, Wang's calculations show that there is not enough time remaining for Trump to catch and pass Clinton. You can see it on the Median EV Estimator chart here. The red band is the maximum change with 66% certainty, while the yellow has 99% certainty. Since the yellow band is higher than 270 for Clinton, the stats say it is extremely unlikely for Trump to win.
Oh how I love these posts!!



And in other news, there is a House Intelligence Committee memo that proves Russian collusion in the 2016 election; collusion with the Democrats. Awkward ....
 
Old 02-03-2018, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,341 posts, read 14,176,868 times
Reputation: 27858
Wang seems to have:

1. Underestimated the number of fed up people
2. Overestimated the number of people who liked Hillary Clinton
3. Underestimated the corruption in the democratic party
4. Overestimated Hillary Clinton's intelligence
5. Undercounted Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio
6. Overestimated the importance of the popular vote

In short, Mr. Wang needs to find a new job --- like, bagging groceries.
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