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The "Blue Wall" theory was always nonsense because it presumed people would always vote the same and that state electorates were static. I've been arguing this for years with the proponents of the theory, who not unsurprisingly are nowhere to be found since last Tuesday.
They did? I never heard the term until November 10, 2016.
Could you show me some quotes prior to that? Thanks!
Surely, you jest.
You've been here all this time, presumably at least moderately comprehending what you were reading, and you are just now hearing about the "blue wall"?
I hope those who used the term profusely, hideously, and insanely are now banned. I'll admit I haven't seen it during this particularly ugly election cycle.
But believe me, it was all over the place 2012 through 2014.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lisanicole1
What claim? Before responding to you politely regarding how you can find direct quotes from the board regarding the "blue wall" the only thing I posted was "it was always just that, a theory".
You seem very agitated.
You should do a little research if you have never heard of the blue wall before. Better yet, keep considering it "unsubstantiated" because that is what it basically is now LOL...
lol. It sure looks like someone's in a snit because his/her little blue wall got knocked down.
*pointing and laughing*
I did a search just on this forum for "blue wall" and came up with 33 pages. And I have my preferences set to 40 posts per page. That's 1320 posts, and it took me all of less than 60 seconds to do my search.
Some snowflakes are simply too helpless to survive.
Last edited by MyNameIsBellaMia; 11-16-2016 at 04:00 PM..
The Blue Wall assumed the parties would be static. Trump was no traditional Republican though I think anyone would have beat Hillary this year. The Blue Wall theory also assumed that a candidate with no strong appeal to anyone and who stirred up plenty of people against her would not be nominated.
What we had was the first candidate in a long time who appealed to the working class.
You've been here all this time, presumably at least moderately comprehending what you were reading, and you are just now hearing about the "blue wall"?
That's what I said. Comprehend?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsBellaMia
I'll admit I haven't seen it during this particularly ugly election cycle.
Boom. There it is is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsBellaMia
But believe me, it was all over the place 2012 through 2014.
Believe you? Any reason why I should?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsBellaMia
lol. It sure looks like someone's in a snit because his/her little blue wall got knocked down. *pointing and laughing*
Think so? I'm glad you're easily amused. If I didn't hear about the "blue wall" until Nov. 10, 2016, it's hardly "mine", is it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsBellaMia
I did a search just on this forum for "blue wall" and came up with 33 pages. And I have my preferences set to 40 posts per page. That's 1320 posts, and it took me all of less than 60 seconds to do my search.
You want a participation trophy? I didn't make the claim in the OP, so it's not incumbent on me to prove it. You said yourself that you didn't recall seeing it during this election cycle. remember?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNameIsBellaMia
Some snowflakes are simply too helpless to survive.
You'll be fine. Your purported IQ should help you chill.
Prior to this election Democrats/liberals loved to brag about how the "blue wall" in the electoral college. With Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan flipping red, is the theory dead?
Not quite dead. The numbers that worked for Trump in 2016 aren't likely to work in 2020.
White non-college voters are still decreasing by 3% every presidential election. They're being replaced by white college grads (+1) and minorities (+2). Clinton is likely to finish with a lead in the national popular vote of about a million. If nothing changes but the demographic changes that are ongoing in the electorate, the Democrat would have a 3 million plurality nationally in 2020 and Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which Trump carried by 1% would flip back to blue just because of that decreasing share of white non-college voters.
Nothing is certain in politics. If you used the same methodology based on 2012 returns and tried to predict the 2016 election, it would have pointed to a 5% democratic win. In order to be sustained indefinitely however, the GOP is going to have to broaden its coalition rather that counting on higher and higher turnout from a diminishing sector of the electorate.
However, it is likely electoral votes will shift (census), somewhere between 8 and 12, from Blue to Red states.
And this year we simply saw Reagan Democrats come home. The Dems now rely on Wall St for $$$$$, and due to that, are in bed with unpopular trade deals. That should keep Reagan Dems home.
Demographics may mitigate some of the damage of a new census, and Reagan Dems leaving (again), but honestly if Dems are smart, they stop trying to rely solely on demographics.
Personally, I suspect a DLC man would fare far better in 2020 for the Dems, but who is left that is true, unabashed DLC?
I never heard of it until this year. The blue wall has always been associated with the police.
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