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View Poll Results: When will Democrats achieve a Senate majority again?
2018 midterm 32 23.88%
2020 presidential 22 16.42%
2022 midterm 17 12.69%
2024 presidential 9 6.72%
2026 midterm or later 13 9.70%
Not in our lifetime 41 30.60%
Voters: 134. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-29-2017, 04:25 PM
Location: Cape Cod
11,877 posts, read 8,265,968 times
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Does it really matter considering how the GOP seems to cater to the Left?
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:33 PM
12,639 posts, read 7,319,915 times
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Not in our lifetimes unless the party abandons its extremism. At this point, the Democrat Party is a fringe party relegated to the coasts, populated by disparate groups of whining victims. That is never going to sell in the middle of the country, where the political power is weighted in the Senate.
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:59 PM
9,954 posts, read 11,942,632 times
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Originally Posted by nononsenseguy View Post
Hopefully, never!

Or when dinosaurs return to the earth...
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:19 PM
3,565 posts, read 1,876,835 times
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Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
My guess is that it's going to take awhile for the Senate to have a Democratic majority again, but it will happen eventually. One factor is on the party's side - the current Republican president is underwater in popularity in most polls, and the opposition is fired up, at least at the moment.

However, there are some major obstacles around Democrats reclaiming a Senate majority:
  • In the 2018 midterms, Democrats will be defending far more seats than Republicans. Virtually all of the Republican seats are in strongly red states (except Nevada), while 10 of the Democratic seats are in states that voted for Trump.
  • 30 states went Republican last year and only 20 Democratic despite the national popular vote favoring the Democrat. This suggests Republicans have a natural advantage in the Senate as there are more red than blue states.
  • The district lines in the House are significantly better for Republicans, so they have a better pool of candidates for the Senate in the majority of states.
  • Incumbents are more likely than not to win re-election, which can make the existing majority self-perpetuating.

My forecast is that Democrats will gain a Senate majority again after the 2022 midterms or later. Trump will probably be re-elected in 2020, and it is possible that voter fatigue with his conduct will build over the long term. But Republicans are probably going to gain a larger majority after the 2018 midterms, and if they get much above 55 seats, they'll probably hold the Senate for many years going forward.
My early prediction is that the Republicans net two seats in 2018. I think they take N. Dakota and Indiana, and Ohio. I think they lose Nevada. I'm not terribly convinced that Trump winning a state is a strong predictor for midterms. Trump's agenda is unpopular, and his poll numbers are abysmal. There is time for that to change, but that's not an easy lift.

Much, of course, depends on this Republican government. Avoiding the repeal/replace of Obamacare was, paradoxically, a godsend for Republicans in Congress. They don't have to reckon (yet) with their awful health care plan.

My early prediction is that the Senate returns to a Democratic majority in 2020. Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina are strong pickup prospects. I don't think 2020 looks good for Trump. Unless his unpopularity changes, his party will bear the consequences.
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:57 PM
Location: Florida -
8,767 posts, read 10,851,233 times
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The Dems really played the 'stupid card' in lining-up behind HC during the election, but, they left themselves with no other alternative (after the dirty 'super-delegate tricks' sunk Bernie).

At the same time, the Reps have continued to show indecisiveness and lack of presence and direction (even with both house and senate majorities).

Fortunately, the Dems have responded by playing the 'stupider card' - squandering whatever remaining political capital they had fighting meaningless battles over cabinet picks and rules, --- and following the tantrums of the far left-wingnuts (Schummer, Warren, Pelosi, Obama, Clinton) will only lead to the loss of more seats in the mid-terms and beyond.

The mainstream press is so obviously biased to the left, they are wasting their last shreds of credibility and actually helping the right, by arrogantly attacking Trump's every word and action ... as though they had been elected to run the nation.

My guess is that the Dems will gradually wake-up ... and again start pandering to the millennial voters by the mid-terms, but, it will likely be too little, to late. But, if they swing a little further toward reality and the Rep house/senate continue their in-fighting and aimlessness, things could swing back in 2020.

As another poster suggested, the political swings in 2018 and 2020 will probably not be determined by leadership or progress, but, by which side shoots themselves in the foot fewer times between now and then.
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:59 PM
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,567 posts, read 748,656 times
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Interesting how most poll responses are clustering at one extreme or the other out of the options, although there are definitely some well balanced opinions written in this thread. It's likely that many partisan Democrats believe they will recapture the Senate in 2018 despite the extreme difficulty in doing so given the seats that are up for re-election, and many partisan Republicans believe they will hold the Senate for decades to come despite the American voters' historic reluctance to give one party full control of government for too long.

Both sides perceive the opposition as being extreme and fundamentally flawed, so it's likely going to be difficult to get many voters to change their minds and switch sides either way - unless the candidate from the opposing party is truly regarded as an exceptional public servant and one who puts his/her state's interest above generic partisanship. On the Republican side, Collins from Maine is a good example; on the Democratic side, maybe Manchin from West Virginia ... but I think he'll need his state to have a different perspective from the many red states that voted out their former Democratic senators in 2010 and 2014.

I will say that Democrats have a major geography problem, given that heavily populated California is skewing national numbers so much while having only 2% of the Senate seats. They really need to consider the consequences of focusing so much on niche social justice issues rather than basic economic concerns. That doesn't mean adopting regressive policies, but many voters care about safety and opportunity for their families, getting ahead financially, and having government perform basic functions with competence. Nothing is a done deal at this point but the party certainly has a lot of work ahead to recover.
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Old 03-29-2017, 06:06 PM
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Take at least a decade, if it ever happens.
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Old 03-29-2017, 06:30 PM
Location: Pacific NW
9,440 posts, read 5,822,026 times
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Democrat voters don't show up for mid terms so 2024 at best. If they keep up with their psychotic rhetoric and calling anyone who disagrees with them a racist nazi they'll never gain a majority in the Senate or House.
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Old 03-29-2017, 06:44 PM
4,069 posts, read 1,560,196 times
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I voted "not in our lifetime" but I'm 70. 2032 would be my guess. (According to the SS actuary tables I'm scheduled to "check out" on Thanksgiving week, 2030...) After 16 years of Trump/Pence presidency, odds are things will swing the other way. It always does sooner or later.
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Old 03-29-2017, 07:33 PM
Location: Texas
35,277 posts, read 19,307,980 times
Reputation: 20911
What no one has mentioned is the one thing that WILL DECIDE the fortunes of both parties in every election cited in the poll and beyond.

Every election is about the economy.

If voters feel secure financially, they'll vote for the incumbent party. If they feel uncertain, they'll go for the opposition.

All of the political bloviating and silly social engineering from the left or the right shrink into insignificance in comparison.

So, how good is your long-range economic forecasting ability?
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