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View Poll Results: When will Democrats achieve a Senate majority again?
2018 midterm 32 23.88%
2020 presidential 22 16.42%
2022 midterm 17 12.69%
2024 presidential 9 6.72%
2026 midterm or later 13 9.70%
Not in our lifetime 41 30.60%
Voters: 134. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-29-2017, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,565 posts, read 748,003 times
Reputation: 1669

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My guess is that it's going to take awhile for the Senate to have a Democratic majority again, but it will happen eventually. One factor is on the party's side - the current Republican president is underwater in popularity in most polls, and the opposition is fired up, at least at the moment.

However, there are some major obstacles around Democrats reclaiming a Senate majority:
  • In the 2018 midterms, Democrats will be defending far more seats than Republicans. Virtually all of the Republican seats are in strongly red states (except Nevada), while 10 of the Democratic seats are in states that voted for Trump.
  • 30 states went Republican last year and only 20 Democratic despite the national popular vote favoring the Democrat. This suggests Republicans have a natural advantage in the Senate as there are more red than blue states.
  • The district lines in the House are significantly better for Republicans, so they have a better pool of candidates for the Senate in the majority of states.
  • Incumbents are more likely than not to win re-election, which can make the existing majority self-perpetuating.

My forecast is that Democrats will gain a Senate majority again after the 2022 midterms or later. Trump will probably be re-elected in 2020, and it is possible that voter fatigue with his conduct will build over the long term. But Republicans are probably going to gain a larger majority after the 2018 midterms, and if they get much above 55 seats, they'll probably hold the Senate for many years going forward.
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Old 03-29-2017, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Kansas
19,185 posts, read 15,031,058 times
Reputation: 18249
With Hillary getting out there running her mouth about resisting, maybe when she is pushing up daisies and probably not until then. She is a poison pill for the party and they must rid themselves of her. The more the liberals and Hillary and her sidekicks stir the pot, the less chance the Democrats will ever rise to the top again. Great news for me. Nationalism is the only way to go!

My advice to the Democratic Party: Pull yourselves together and stop being the party of tears and gender bashing as a start at least.
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Old 03-29-2017, 01:17 PM
 
Location: NY
12,267 posts, read 9,447,164 times
Reputation: 8029
I think it's going to be a long time. First Democrats have to start winning at the state level, but to do that they need a viable DNC, and we all know how well that's working right now.
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Old 03-29-2017, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
1,802 posts, read 1,654,976 times
Reputation: 1640
It's way premature to predict, 60-something days in. Just wishful speculation at this point...
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Old 03-29-2017, 01:21 PM
 
9,764 posts, read 3,167,543 times
Reputation: 4053
Most likely is 2022 I feel
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Old 03-29-2017, 01:36 PM
 
3,513 posts, read 2,516,206 times
Reputation: 6798
They should keep talking about how they need to shut white people up. That will really help them, especially in the midwest.

And this business about not forwarding an agenda of any kind, but talking about Russia instead--that is CAPITAL! Since their agenda was a loser in most of the country, talk about a baseless scandal with no evidence instead, without making any allegation of what Trump might have actually done wrong. The people love it, and the Republicans can't disprove somethng that is entirely fictional in the first place any more than I could disprove Santa Clause.

The violence in the streets--good stuff. Show how detemined they are, and how they will not take no for an answer in pursuit of justice. Democracy is all about beating people up who disagree with you.

This business about shouting down people on college campuses and chasing them away--good for them. There is no reason to be open to new ideas, when your ideas are right in the first place.

Let's face it, they are doing a magnificent job.

It only helps them when Nancy Pelosi forgets who she is talking about. Shows she is not going to forget the past when she calls Donald Trump George Bush.
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Old 03-29-2017, 02:15 PM
 
2,858 posts, read 1,022,372 times
Reputation: 3865
I'm to the right of center but not so far as to not see things realistically. I voted for Trump. He spoke to the middle whereas Hillary did not. I also liked Bernie, though for very different reasons. I'd of taken him seriously as a candidate and would have given him consideration.

The Republicans need to guard against shooting themselves in the foot such as they nearly did with that abominable health plan. Trump needs to tone down the rhetoric and start acting presidential. Someone needs to tell him that the campaign is over. A lid needs to be kept on the far right side of the party. They are hurting, not helping the conservative cause. The religious zealots in their ranks need to be marginalized. We're not a theocracy.

If the Democrats are to regain some ground on their merits (vs the Republicans giving it to them as a result of being stupid), they need to drop the identity politics and they need to cleanse themselves of the divisive folks leading the party. The Clintons have way too much baggage, yet the Dems still keep them front and center. Making the recent election of a new party chair an exercise in identity politics tells me they have learned nothing. The Dems need a clean slate of fresh faces that speak to the middle of the political spectrum rather than ignoring the middle such as we have presently. The Obama & Clinton loyalists are toxic for the party. The party needs to divorce itself from the rioters in our cities and on our campuses, because riots are not peaceful protests. Shouting down anyone who holds a different view will not win hearts and minds, nor will calling everyone that disagrees with you a racist, homophobe, misogynist, Islamophobe etc.

Either party can gain ground in 2018 & 2020, either by getting smart or by being less stupid than the other.
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:05 PM
 
9,764 posts, read 3,167,543 times
Reputation: 4053
2018 midterm has 3 votes? Lmao. Looks like people don't know what seats are up for grabs
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:07 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
26,524 posts, read 62,986,490 times
Reputation: 30570
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biker53 View Post
I'm to the right of center but not so far as to not see things realistically. I voted for Trump. He spoke to the middle whereas Hillary did not. I also liked Bernie, though for very different reasons. I'd of taken him seriously as a candidate and would have given him consideration.

The Republicans need to guard against shooting themselves in the foot such as they nearly did with that abominable health plan. Trump needs to tone down the rhetoric and start acting presidential. Someone needs to tell him that the campaign is over. A lid needs to be kept on the far right side of the party. They are hurting, not helping the conservative cause. The religious zealots in their ranks need to be marginalized. We're not a theocracy.

If the Democrats are to regain some ground on their merits (vs the Republicans giving it to them as a result of being stupid), they need to drop the identity politics and they need to cleanse themselves of the divisive folks leading the party. The Clintons have way too much baggage, yet the Dems still keep them front and center. Making the recent election of a new party chair an exercise in identity politics tells me they have learned nothing. The Dems need a clean slate of fresh faces that speak to the middle of the political spectrum rather than ignoring the middle such as we have presently. The Obama & Clinton loyalists are toxic for the party. The party needs to divorce itself from the rioters in our cities and on our campuses, because riots are not peaceful protests. Shouting down anyone who holds a different view will not win hearts and minds, nor will calling everyone that disagrees with you a racist, homophobe, misogynist, Islamophobe etc.

Either party can gain ground in 2018 & 2020, either by getting smart or by being less stupid than the other.
Half way through I had to scroll up and make certain I did not write this some time ago and then forget about it. I am the same moderate leaning right of center on many issues, but left of center on a few things. This post is exactly what I was thinking while reading this thread. Not surprising since most everyone except the Democratic leadership seems to be aware of this (and even some of the Democratic leadership has said these things, but they are ignored). Instead the thinking is "We only need to push a little harder and call names, shame people a bit more and we can snag the majority we need to shove our thoughts and positions down everyone's throats. That will show them for saying we need to make an adjustment."

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of something (Supidity? Insanity? if do not recall).
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:24 PM
 
Location: NE Ohio
30,222 posts, read 16,637,000 times
Reputation: 8863
Hopefully, never!
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