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The comparisons between the KS race and this GA one are comical.
No one really suggested the Democrats had a good shot at winning KS-4. A potential longshot? Yes, but a decent chance of winning? No.
Really the only similarity between the two districts is they are both traditionally Republican. KS-4 is a blue collar district which Trump won by 27. GA-6 is a well educated white collar suburban district that swung from Romney +23.3 to Trump +1.5
I'm a Dem with relatives in that part of ATL Metro. It will be a major upset for a Dem to there. Certainly not Tues. which will simply result in a run-off, but that seat is pretty protected for Rep's as are most Cong. seats due to gerrymandering.
The district being in play and Republicans scrambling and spending a bunch of $$ and still being a Democratic longshot are not mutually exclusive.
FWIW, I'm not even predicting an Ossoff win. I think it will go to a runoff and it is too early to really predict how that will turn out. However, GA-6 is considerably more competitive than KS-4 was so to put it in the same category is foolish. Both are traditionally very Republican, perhaps GA-6 even more so. However, Trump +27 compared to Trump +1.5 in which it swung 20 points, is considerably different.
I live just a few miles outside GA-06 and work in the district. My impression is that the Republican who makes the runoff is probably favored to win - but they will have to work for it and unite the different factions of the party. Running a weak campaign and relying on the president and national Republicans to pull him over the finish line worked in KS-04, as that is a far more strongly red district. GA-06 voters want to hear more than "drain the swamp" and "A+ NRA rating", although those statements won't hurt.
Ultimately I don't think Democrats are going to win any of the open House seats, but it would be surprising if they don't achieve a net gain in the midterms, whether or not they can reach a majority. If they actually lose seats next year then I'd agree with the partisan Republicans in this forum that the Democratic party is becoming extinct in much of the country and seriously needs a makeover.
I dropped 5 bucks on a bet showing that John Ossoff will win Georgia based upon data from a month ago. Currently that bet is up $.93
If I win, its $15 total. Currently the market of people putting money where their mouth is says he has a 44% chance. I bought at 34%. I think thats a appropriate betting level at the moment. Karen Handel is at 44% as well. Its neck and neck.
It's been a long time since I gambled, but at those #s your payout will be @ 2.2:1 or $11.
What gambling operations pays off on when you place your bets?
as long as Hank "islands can tip over" Johnson remains in the House in GA, that place is a joke. he is living proof that voter fraud exists.
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