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Old 04-16-2017, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,975 posts, read 15,423,949 times
Reputation: 3946

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The comparisons between the KS race and this GA one are comical.

No one really suggested the Democrats had a good shot at winning KS-4. A potential longshot? Yes, but a decent chance of winning? No.

Really the only similarity between the two districts is they are both traditionally Republican. KS-4 is a blue collar district which Trump won by 27. GA-6 is a well educated white collar suburban district that swung from Romney +23.3 to Trump +1.5
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Old 04-16-2017, 08:58 AM
 
Location: Central Mexico and Central Florida
7,073 posts, read 3,421,660 times
Reputation: 10133
I'm a Dem with relatives in that part of ATL Metro. It will be a major upset for a Dem to there. Certainly not Tues. which will simply result in a run-off, but that seat is pretty protected for Rep's as are most Cong. seats due to gerrymandering.
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Old 04-16-2017, 09:03 AM
 
44,339 posts, read 17,685,089 times
Reputation: 18663
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post

No one really suggested the Democrats had a good shot at winning KS-4.....
Yes they did. There was a whole topic that said the GOP was "terrified".

Kansas special election in play - Republicans terrified
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Old 04-16-2017, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,975 posts, read 15,423,949 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Yes they did. There was a whole topic that said the GOP was "terrified".

Kansas special election in play - Republicans terrified
The district being in play and Republicans scrambling and spending a bunch of $$ and still being a Democratic longshot are not mutually exclusive.

FWIW, I'm not even predicting an Ossoff win. I think it will go to a runoff and it is too early to really predict how that will turn out. However, GA-6 is considerably more competitive than KS-4 was so to put it in the same category is foolish. Both are traditionally very Republican, perhaps GA-6 even more so. However, Trump +27 compared to Trump +1.5 in which it swung 20 points, is considerably different.
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Old 04-16-2017, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,525 posts, read 722,088 times
Reputation: 1619
I live just a few miles outside GA-06 and work in the district. My impression is that the Republican who makes the runoff is probably favored to win - but they will have to work for it and unite the different factions of the party. Running a weak campaign and relying on the president and national Republicans to pull him over the finish line worked in KS-04, as that is a far more strongly red district. GA-06 voters want to hear more than "drain the swamp" and "A+ NRA rating", although those statements won't hurt.

Ultimately I don't think Democrats are going to win any of the open House seats, but it would be surprising if they don't achieve a net gain in the midterms, whether or not they can reach a majority. If they actually lose seats next year then I'd agree with the partisan Republicans in this forum that the Democratic party is becoming extinct in much of the country and seriously needs a makeover.
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Old 04-16-2017, 11:53 AM
 
1,474 posts, read 407,197 times
Reputation: 846
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Never understood your hate for John Lewis, but Ossoff is the party backed candidate, so basically every Democrat supports him.
So you're not Votin'for Sloten?
Signs all over. My favorite: Vote your Ossoff
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Old 04-16-2017, 12:06 PM
 
Location: NC
5,116 posts, read 1,800,916 times
Reputation: 2372
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Quick! Who gained seats in the house and senate in the 2016 election? Which party won the popular vote for president?

Speaking of arrogant optimism.......
which party won the Presidency?
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Old 04-16-2017, 12:13 PM
 
Location: In The Thin Air
12,245 posts, read 8,025,490 times
Reputation: 8893
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Dear,

I'm an electrical engineer. I deal in science & fact every day. What is your profession?
Is this thread about occupations? Nope. You are deflecting again.
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Old 04-16-2017, 12:36 PM
 
4,997 posts, read 1,981,519 times
Reputation: 2244
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
I dropped 5 bucks on a bet showing that John Ossoff will win Georgia based upon data from a month ago. Currently that bet is up $.93

If I win, its $15 total. Currently the market of people putting money where their mouth is says he has a 44% chance. I bought at 34%. I think thats a appropriate betting level at the moment. Karen Handel is at 44% as well. Its neck and neck.
It's been a long time since I gambled, but at those #s your payout will be @ 2.2:1 or $11.

What gambling operations pays off on when you place your bets?
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Old 04-16-2017, 12:59 PM
 
Location: NC
5,116 posts, read 1,800,916 times
Reputation: 2372
as long as Hank "islands can tip over" Johnson remains in the House in GA, that place is a joke. he is living proof that voter fraud exists.
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