Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Most of rural America is Republican primarily because of religion. Things like gun rights and nationalism play a part but for the most part, it's about abortion and fear of LGBT rights. The way I see it is Democrats will start making inroads with rural and suburban voters at the same time that Republicans start getting increased support in the inner cities. It could happen one day, but it isn't going to happen any time soon.
A wave election for the Democrats in 2020 could certainly put a dent into that.
The GOP had a wave election in 2010. Based on the wave election the GOP grabbed a hold of a bunch of state legislatures and were able to draw the districts in a ton of states. As a result they drew districts in such a way that they would keep control even in a non-wave election or an election that leans Dem. If the Democrats have of wave in 2020 that could put them in charge of the drawing in more states.
Of course a wave election won't mean everything. Some of the states have such a gerrymander than even a strong Democratic wave will result in the GOP keeping legislative control. In other states the lines are drawn from an Independent Commission (California) or Judges, etc. However, a wave election can change the dimension of state control and one timed with redistricting, even more so/
Most of rural America is Republican primarily because of religion. Things like gun rights and nationalism play a part but for the most part, it's about abortion and fear of LGBT rights. The way I see it is Democrats will start making inroads with rural and suburban voters at the same time that Republicans start getting increased support in the inner cities. It could happen one day, but it isn't going to happen any time soon.
All those evangelicals that voted for thrice married Trump who publicly cheated on his first wife and has three different families, bragged about grabbing women without permission and called his dating life his personal Vietnam showed religion is subject to interpretation.
I'm not talking about the Senate, House, but the state legislatures. Right now the Republicans control 33 state legislatures fully (or something like that), have about 30 state governorships, and have control of at least one state house in 41 states.
Do you think the Dems ever have a chance of taking the majority back from the Republicans or do you think the Republicans will always control the states (at least, until their party dies)?
Well, right now it's the Democrat Party that's dying, not the Republican Party.
Much of the R lean is geographic. The cities are getting more Dem/the rural areas more R. The battle is over suburbs and further out suburbs. If they are strategically divided they can tilt either way but the Rs have been more successful with gerrymandering in recent years a diffuse the power of the more liberal areas.
The unspoken truth is that the minority majority districts were a huge boon to Republicans. They can put as many Dems and minorities as possible into a sinkhole of a district and make the other districts more R friendly.
The big changes in the country are going to occur in the west where they are less ideological. And Rs are not as religious (on the whole) but more libertarian. I see more of the rustbelt going R and in a few years NC and Georgia will be in an odd spot where the major cities might start to tilt those states Dem.
I don't think the Rs will have as ironclad of a lock after 2020 but I do think they'll have a clear advantage in state houses until atleast the late 2020s.
You might want to look at the tables in the attached. Dems had the upper hand for decades. It really just the last ~8 years that the dominant party flipped, in particular the last four or so years. http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-s...mposition.aspx
Quote:
Originally Posted by trlhiker
Nope, it tends to change every decade or so depending on how the ruling party behaves. If Trumps and the Republicans mess up and the economy goes into another freefall, you will see Dems take over quickly like they did in 2008.
There is the House District 6th special election, which many expect the Dem candidate, Ossoff to win the all in primary with ~40% of the vote. There is something like 18 candidates in the first ballot, with most running under the Republican banner. Trump won the bulk of that district by only 1%, while Tom Price, now Sec of HHS had been winning election and then election(s) by something like 30-40 points. What is expected is that the Republicans will coalesce behind their standard bearer and Ossoff will remain around 40% in the top two vote getters runoff in June
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight
The senate election in Georgia and the congressional election in Kansas will be good indicators on the local elections, opinions have changed on things like the ACA.
There are more "Republican states" in number, so I imagine that it's a definite possibility for state legislatures.
That's true. I guess it depends on how literally you take the statement "always".
There's more conservative states than liberal ones. There always has been, but when the basically one-Party South shifted from all-Democratic to all-Republican it shifted the balance on the total number of state legislatures and governors heavily towards the GOP. It didn't make a great change in the type of candidates that were elected. They usually were more conservative in the South, rural Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, but the party labels changed and with that the numeric comparison between the parties.
That's true. I guess it depends on how literally you take the statement "always".
There's more conservative states than liberal ones. There always has been, but when the basically one-Party South shifted from all-Democratic to all-Republican it shifted the balance on the total number of state legislatures and governors heavily towards the GOP. It didn't make a great change in the type of candidates that were elected. They usually were more conservative in the South, rural Midwest and Rocky Mountain states, but the party labels changed and with that the numeric comparison between the parties.
GOP gained a dozen governors (net) under Obama. Best RNC leader they ever had.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
