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Old 05-16-2017, 11:18 AM
 
Location: California
4,539 posts, read 5,452,016 times
Reputation: 9561

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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnywhereElse View Post
The article was awesome. I am not sure it really helped some understand based on your comments though. We have people with higher educations working at the big box stores, selling insurance and autos who can't pay back their student loans. And, do you know of a free moving service, because moving costs a lot of money and anymore, employers do not cover those moves for the person relocating.

We bought a foreclosed home. The owner had decided to move for a job 3 states away. The owner lost the house, lost the job and because of cost of living had to return and live with relatives.

It is simply a matter of bringing back jobs, not crowding people into cities where they have no desire to live and going into debt to try to live there.

So, if today everyone in the USA had a college degree, how would that work? And, they all moved to the bigger cities for jobs. Surely I don't have to explain where that would go. Geesh!



Yes, much more likely that a Clinton voter was on public assistance than someone voting for Trump:

The politics and demographics of food stamp recipients | Pew Research Center

I can't imagine that anyone, in truth, didn't realize that. Although, I think with Trump talking jobs, he pulled some of those votes from those that truly want to earn their way and not mooch off of the taxpayers.
Very well said and thanks for the link.

I was raised in Ohio in a culture that valued honesty and hard work. My finger goes off to HRC.
BTW, I was raised in that culture and come from a long line of highly educated professionals who value hard work and honesty.
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Old 05-16-2017, 12:25 PM
 
7,276 posts, read 3,755,571 times
Reputation: 3765
Quote:
Originally Posted by LS Jaun View Post
"Trumpís base of support correlated strongly with areas where people donít have college degrees. Why donít these people just go to college? That isnít a simple solution either. You might be condemned for trying to rise above your station."



It's their wettest dream trying to identify people who voted against their guy (gal in this case) as uneducated. I'm an Aerospace Engineer, in the Defense Industry. I work with very highly educated people and I don't know of one person in my field who voted Hillary.
Seriously? The firm you`re doing your engineering for can`t have more than 5 employees.
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Old 05-17-2017, 11:41 AM
 
6,968 posts, read 2,488,962 times
Reputation: 3530
Quote:
Originally Posted by nsgjdennis View Post
This Demographic Advantage the Democrats are supposed to have is such nonesense. The country has been getting more and more diverse and they have lost over a thousand seats. Look at Florida. It is one of the most diverse states there are and it just keeps getting Redder and Redder.
The loss of seats that you referenced primarily relates to what he loss of state legislative seats as already red rural states become overwhelmingly red. The big negatives for the Dems in those states is that (1.) it kills their farm club and (2.) limits the chances of a D winning statewide office in any event. On the issue of the raw total of elected seats, you're correct.

The broader, and more long term, question, is how long can the GOP win by depending disproportionately on the demographic that is falling in every state? Republican pollster Whit Ayres believes that for long term success at the presidential level, the GOP needs a national level of 40% of Hispanic vote. Now, admittedly, he meant that in order to win the national popular vote the R's would need that number as a floor level. Trump won 28% of the national Hispanic vote and lost the national pop vote by 2% and about 3 million votes.

Republicans have lost the national popular vote for 6 of the last 7 times. There have only been 4 instances in American History when the loser of the national popular vote won in the electoral college.

The electorate is changing in every state. Even in those states with a low percentage of minority voters, the number of white working class voters without a college degree is being overtaken by white college graduates. The white college grad vote is universally less Republican than the white non-college vote. Nationally the difference between the 2 white groups was about 18%. In some states that the difference is just a little, in other states, it's a lot. The significance of the demographic change is that, if the trends continue indefinitely, the D average lead in the presidential popular vote is likely to grow, as the growth in the minority vote cuts into R victory margins in key states. (Think Texas and Georgia for exanple) while California, Illinois and New York continue to pump out large D margins. At some point some of those safe R states turn purple.

If you only track one demographic, focus on white college graduates. The closer their vote tracks with those of white non-college voters, the safer the state is for the GOP. The more it varies, also influenced by the level of minority vote in that state, the more likely it is to turn the state at least purple, if not blue.


https://www.amazon.com/2016-Beyond-R...5042071&sr=1-1

Also, the original post that I made in this thread was in response to a poster who was incredulous that the white working class was only 35% of total votes cast. Neither of these posts were made with any assurance on my part that future demographics guarantee the success or failure of either party, only of the necessity for the GOP to broaden its base over the course of time and not overly depend to upon its bellcow to always pull them through.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-17-2017 at 12:44 PM..
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Old 05-17-2017, 12:42 PM
 
Location: USA
19,664 posts, read 14,646,740 times
Reputation: 12704
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmagoo View Post
Seriously? The firm you`re doing your engineering for can`t have more than 5 employees.
F500 company, thousands of employees. If you really think people in the Defense Industry vote Dem or Hillary for that matter, in large #s, you would be very wrong.
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Old 05-17-2017, 02:57 PM
 
18,747 posts, read 7,285,194 times
Reputation: 8010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
The loss of seats that you referenced primarily relates to what he loss of state legislative seats as already red rural states become overwhelmingly red. The big negatives for the Dems in those states is that (1.) it kills their farm club and (2.) limits the chances of a D winning statewide office in any event. On the issue of the raw total of elected seats, you're correct.

The broader, and more long term, question, is how long can the GOP win by depending disproportionately on the demographic that is falling in every state? Republican pollster Whit Ayres believes that for long term success at the presidential level, the GOP needs a national level of 40% of Hispanic vote. Now, admittedly, he meant that in order to win the national popular vote the R's would need that number as a floor level. Trump won 28% of the national Hispanic vote and lost the national pop vote by 2% and about 3 million votes.

Republicans have lost the national popular vote for 6 of the last 7 times. There have only been 4 instances in American History when the loser of the national popular vote won in the electoral college.

The electorate is changing in every state.
https://www.amazon.com/2016-Beyond-R...5042071&sr=1-1

.
Rust Belt demographics = Higher wwc, less change in demographic composition.

For your party, NO Rust Belt = No POTUS

Perhaps in 60 or 80 years, it changes, but Rust Belt is not a state-state transplant mecca. It also retains a disproportionate amount of industrial jobs. WWC jobs.

Reconcile yourself to realize that the DNC needs them. The inverse is not true.
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:19 PM
 
6,968 posts, read 2,488,962 times
Reputation: 3530
Bob, if you honestly believe what you typed, you're as delusional as anyone who posts on a board noted for insanity. First, even if the Rust Belt goes R for 60-80 years, which it won't, you're forgetting about the ticking time bomb in the Sunbelt states. In Georgia, Mississippi and Texas, minority kids already make up a majority of school aged children. By 2040, the Anglo pop of Texas is scheduled to fall to somewhere between 27-36%. That's not even mentioning the female white college grad problem nationwide.

You're betting long term on a fading horse. The GOP must diversify or what we're witnessing now will be seen by historians as a last stand. If the demographic party splits don't change, the only variable is time.

Fact

http://blog.chron.com/insidepolicy/2...ion-2010-2050/

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/mi...nsus-data.html

Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-17-2017 at 03:57 PM..
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:50 PM
 
Location: USA
19,664 posts, read 14,646,740 times
Reputation: 12704
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heidi60 View Post
Very well said and thanks for the link.

I was raised in Ohio in a culture that valued honesty and hard work. My finger goes off to HRC.
BTW, I was raised in that culture and come from a long line of highly educated professionals who value hard work and honesty.
That can't be. Everyone knows only Educated people vote Dem, and uneducated people vote Rep or for Trump. My gf and her family who still identify as Dems and Liberal, all respond with that mantra, but not a single college degree among them

Last edited by LS Jaun; 05-17-2017 at 04:04 PM..
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:55 PM
 
Location: Texas
3,253 posts, read 1,718,496 times
Reputation: 3080
The white working class folks I know need a union. They tend to make $10+ less than I do and still have to pay for their health insurance.
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Old 05-17-2017, 06:57 PM
 
18,747 posts, read 7,285,194 times
Reputation: 8010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Bob, if you honestly believe what you typed, you're as delusional as anyone who posts on a board noted for insanity. First, even if the Rust Belt goes R for 60-80 years, which it won't, you're forgetting about the ticking time bomb in the Sunbelt states. In Georgia, Mississippi and Texas, minority kids already make up a majority of school aged children. By 2040, the Anglo pop of Texas is scheduled to fall to somewhere between 27-36%. That's not even mentioning the female white college grad problem nationwide.

You're betting long term on a fading horse. The GOP must diversify or what we're witnessing now will be seen by historians as a last stand. If the demographic party splits don't change, the only variable is time.

Fact

Projections of Texas Population, 2010-2050 - Inside Policy & Politics

Minority Children: State Populations

Wrong as what you are not saying is those Southern states have large margins now. They will shrink, but not be erased , at least in my lifetime.

In the next several decades, the GOP will add 6-12 census seats shifting regularly, and we already know Acela Belt plus West Coast is < 270 by dozens. No Rust Belt = no Democrat POTUS. I love that.

In addition, many transplants (and Red States gain pop-while Blue mostly lose pop) like the existing political culture of their new, red states. They embrace it. That is why the Southern Red Wall has not even been contested for the most part-it is way past being viewed as even swing in the next several decades.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:12 PM
 
39,186 posts, read 20,292,604 times
Reputation: 12715
Quote:
Originally Posted by LS Jaun View Post
"Trump’s base of support correlated strongly with areas where people don’t have college degrees. Why don’t these people just go to college? That isn’t a simple solution either. You might be condemned for trying to rise above your station."



It's their wettest dream trying to identify people who voted against their guy (gal in this case) as uneducated. I'm an Aerospace Engineer, in the Defense Industry. I work with very highly educated people and I don't know of one person in my field who voted Hillary.
Yep, my husband is a Nuclear Engineer and he didn't vote for Hillary. I'm was an ICU and ER nurse and now own a company and employ people who depend on my company to do well for them to support their families and I didn't vote for Hillary.

Last edited by petch751; 05-17-2017 at 07:21 PM..
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