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Old 05-17-2017, 07:22 PM
 
39,109 posts, read 20,248,870 times
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Democrat (elitist) "think they are better than others" and for them it's all about "who's.. who". They put on a show, trying to impress their peers. They talk about the poor in a demeaning way, and as if they think the poor couldn't survive without them. Democrats are so very pretentious.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:53 PM
 
6,926 posts, read 2,471,258 times
Reputation: 3491
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Wrong as what you are not saying is those Southern states have large margins now. They will shrink, but not be erased , at least in my lifetime.

In the next several decades, the GOP will add 6-12 census seats shifting regularly, and we already know Acela Belt plus West Coast is < 270 by dozens. No Rust Belt = no Democrat POTUS. I love that.

In addition, many transplants (and Red States gain pop-while Blue mostly lose pop) like the existing political culture of their new, red states. They embrace it. That is why the Southern Red Wall has not even been contested for the most part-it is way past being viewed as even swing in the next several decades.
Dream on
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:58 PM
 
18,639 posts, read 7,247,279 times
Reputation: 7971
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Dream on
Show it with stats. As in right now, demographic A is X % of the total who vote, polls show they go 65-35 this way, and they will be Y% in 20 years, having a total affect of Z (what the 65-35 times % of all votes is now, vs 65-35 with % it will be).

You are not cross referencing that, nor addressing the 2016 Red Wall huge pluralities.

One dimension is all you show..X is growing at Y%. Where is X now? How do they vote now? What % are they of all votes now? What is state margin.

Example: Closest southern state, Ga > =5% Trump. So if minorities become 5% more of the pie, voting 75-25 one way, affect is .5 plurality * .05 % more of voters, slices margin in half. SC margin was 14%, Tn 26%, double digits the Southern norm.

Last edited by BobNJ1960; 05-17-2017 at 08:06 PM..
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:58 PM
 
6,926 posts, read 2,471,258 times
Reputation: 3491
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Wrong as what you are not saying is those Southern states have large margins now. They will shrink, but not be erased , at least in my lifetime.

In the next several decades, the GOP will add 6-12 census seats shifting regularly, and we already know Acela Belt plus West Coast is < 270 by dozens. No Rust Belt = no Democrat POTUS. I love that.

In addition, many transplants (and Red States gain pop-while Blue mostly lose pop) like the existing political culture of their new, red states. They embrace it. That is why the Southern Red Wall has not even been contested for the most part-it is way past being viewed as even swing in the next several decades.
Dream on

What you'd better hope is that the GOP can survive its association with Donald Trump long term, not that they're going to hold power for 20-30 or 60-80 years while at the same time repeatedly losing the popular vote.

That. Does. Not. Compute.

The odds of dominating in the EC while continuously losing the pop vote are longer than you want to think.

Eventually the GOP has to grab a greater share of the minority vote and/or close the gap between college/non-college white voters. You can only gin up the turnout of the fading blue collar vote (and as a percentage of voters it is most definitely fading everywhere) for so long. The only variable is time. Either win the white college vote by about the same margin as white non-college vote or win minority voters. That will be true to some degree in every region of the country.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:09 PM
 
18,639 posts, read 7,247,279 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Dream on

What you'd better hope is that the GOP can survive its association with Donald Trump long term, not that they're going to hold power for 20-30 or 60-80 years while at the same time repeatedly losing the popular vote.

That. Does. Not. Compute.

The odds of dominating in the EC while continuously losing the pop vote are longer than you want to think.

Eventually the GOP has to grab a greater share of the minority vote and/or close the gap between college/non-college white voters. You can only gin up the turnout of the fading blue collar vote (and as a percentage of voters it is most definitely fading everywhere) for so long. The only variable is time. Either win the white college vote by about the same margin as white non-college vote or win minority voters. That will be true to some degree in every region of the country.
In 50 years perhaps. Rust Belt is not diversifying. Acela Belt plus West Coast is about 230. Middle America is solid red. Census helps red states, hurts blue states.

Now repost that in 40 years. May be true then.

Your beloved Blue Wall crumbled, just like the Berlin Wall decades ago.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:11 PM
 
6,926 posts, read 2,471,258 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
In 50 years perhaps. Rust Belt is not diversifying. Acela Belt plus West Coast is about 230. Middle America is solid red. Census helps red sates, hurts blue states.

Now repost that in 40 years. May be true then.
You're only focusing on minority voters. Factor in white college grads and I think it will come sooner than you like.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:12 PM
 
18,639 posts, read 7,247,279 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
You're only focusing on minority voters. Factor in white college grads and I think it will come sooner than you like.
Table it, as in % of voters each is, how they vote, state by state 2016 margins.

Red Wall states are mainly romps. Not swing states.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:24 PM
 
6,926 posts, read 2,471,258 times
Reputation: 3491
Riddle this.

On average your white non-college voters share of total vote has been dropping by 3% nationally from one POTUS to the next. They favored Trump by 37%.

On average white college grads share of the vote increases 1% nationaly per POTUS, favored Trunp by 3%.

On average minorities share of the total vote increases by 2%; favored Clinton by 53%.

It varies by state, but like sand through an hourglass, it's happening everywhere.

Don't listen to me. Listen to Republicans who crunch numbers for a living. Read some books by Whit Ayres. The name of the guy that ran the Kasich campaign in escaping me at the moment, but he's a Texan by birth and he knows that
the GOP is living on borrowed time there.

Eventually you're gonna have to tap into a new well.

Tick tick. Tick.


Edit: John Weaver

Quote:
But was the 2016 race an anomaly – or a harbinger of things to come?

"I think quite frankly whether it's 2020 or 2022, Texas will enter purple status," explained GOP Strategist John Weaver.

Weaver was most recently the Chief Strategist of John Kasich's presidential campaign and has worked a variety of high-profile races throughout his career.

He says the numbers and trends spell trouble for the future of Republicans in the state.

Millennial voters, in fact, young voters under 35, are not with Republicans on any of these issues perhaps other than the economy. You couple with that a growing Latino population, not just here in Texas, but nationally, and margins with the African-American community are high as ever," said Weaver.

In Texas, there are more Hispanic school children than white school children, and the Hispanic birth rate continues to outpace the white birth rate.

"I am worried that the party could become more and more identified with one race, and one gender, and one age group. Old white men. And we won't survive that," Weaver explained.
http://www.kvue.com/news/local/texas...tate/415581582

Also, here's what the former GOP state chair in Texas has to say.

Quote:
Political conventions are echo chambers designed to generate feelings of invincibility, sending forth the party faithful with a spring in their steps and hope in their hearts. Who would want to be a wet blanket at such moveable feasts? Steve Munisteri would. Although he calls himself “the eternal optimist,” he respects reality, which nowadays is not conducive to conservatives’ cheerfulness. He served as chairman of the Texas Republican party from 2010 to 2015 because he discerned “a seismic shift in demographics” that meant his state could “turn Democratic sooner than most people thought.”

Munisteri’s politically formative years were the conservative movement’s salad days — the late 1970s, and 1980s, when many conservatives acquired a serene certainty that this is and always will be a center-right country. Munisteri, however, is “a numbers guy,” so serenity is illusive. He notes that beginning with Franklin Roosevelt’s first victory in 1932, Democrats won seven of nine presidential elections, and if they had succeeded in their effort to enlist Dwight Eisenhower as a Democrat they probably would have won nine in a row. Trends can be reversed but until they are, Republicans risk protracted losing in a center-left country, which America now is, and in a purple Texas, which soon could be.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...uld-finish-gop

Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-17-2017 at 08:44 PM..
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:28 PM
 
18,639 posts, read 7,247,279 times
Reputation: 7971
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Riddle this.

On average your white non-college voters share of total vote has been dropping by 3% nationally from one POTUS to the next. They favored Trump by 37%. (1.11% affect)

On average white college grads share of the vote increases 1% nationaly per POTUS, favored Trunp by 3%. (.03%)

On average minorities share of the total vote increases by 2%; favored Clinton by 53%. (HRC 1.06%)

It varies by state, but like sand through an hourglass, it's happening everywhere.

Don't listen to me. Listen to Republicans who crunch numbers for a living. Read some books by Whit Ayres.

Eventually you're gonna have to tap into a new well.

Tick tick. Tick.
Notice those itty bit affects. I added % of total affect for you.

Red Wall is almost all 12% or higher statewide margins, time after time. So in 48 years, that minority affect could offset 12% pluralities.

Plus, until then, Red Wall would gain 24-48 EC votes (6-12 each decade).

Democrats need to try a Big Tent, include the majority demographic approach, despite hating them.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:50 PM
 
6,926 posts, read 2,471,258 times
Reputation: 3491
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Notice those itty bit affects. I added % of total affect for you.

Red Wall is almost all 12% or higher statewide margins, time after time. So in 48 years, that minority affect could offset 12% pluralities.

Plus, until then, Red Wall would gain 24-48 EC votes (6-12 each decade).

Democrats need to try a Big Tent, include the majority demographic approach, despite hating them.
You're suddenly a true believer, for someone who prior to this summer was preaching the need for the GOP to diversify. Now you've convinced yourself that the GOP can ride white blue collar resentment to basically permanent power.

I think you're deluding yourself, but to each his own.
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