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Old 06-24-2017, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,417 posts, read 11,725,880 times
Reputation: 10817

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Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
Losing to the dems means the rich win. You do know that right. The dems fight for our vets, the poor, the middle class and seniors. What exactly do you think republicans have done for them....absolutely nothing.
Don't give me this "rich wins" BS. Where did the billion or so dollars come from in Hillary's war chest? It did not come form little guys; most of it came from the rich. Do you think the rich waste money on candidates that are going to lose them money? Of course there are 'rich' people/organizations that back both Parties; but which Party is fighting to get rid of lobbyist and special interest (neither one right now).

As far as fighting for our vets, poor, the middle class and seniors - good luck with that. The Democrats were in power for eight years and all we heard was one scandal after another from the VA. There was hardly one peep out of DC about our homeless. The middle class only exist to tax more. And our seniors could not die quick enough. The Democrats only worried about the poor, cheap, labor that illegally entered our Country and made their fellow rich supporters richer and that ideology is still there even today!

 
Old 06-25-2017, 06:41 AM
 
7,102 posts, read 2,518,721 times
Reputation: 3590
Here's how a President's approval rating has historically impacted off-year elections.

If a President's approval is at 60%, his party on average gains 3 seats.
If his approval is at 50%, on average his party loses 36 seats.
If his approval is at 40%, on average his party loses 40 seats.

Trump's current average approval in the RCP average is 40%.
 
Old 06-25-2017, 09:44 AM
 
9,867 posts, read 10,122,025 times
Reputation: 5292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Here's how a President's approval rating has historically impacted off-year elections.
There are so many factors other than "approval rating" that those kind of trends are very difficult to generalize.

The Republicans have made huge gains by very detailed gerrymandering that was a major factor in winning a majority in 10 of the last 12 Congressional elections.

For instance in Pennsylvania after the 2000 census the Republicans won between
7 / 19 seats = 36.8%
12 / 19 seats = 63.2%

In the three elections after the 2010 census the Republicans won consistently
13 / 18 seats = 72.2%

The Republican party thinks they can increase that to:
14 / 18 seats = 77.8%
15 / 18 seats = 83.3%

The last three seats are untouchably Democratic (2 in Philadelphia and 1 in Pittsburgh)
 
Old 06-25-2017, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,417 posts, read 11,725,880 times
Reputation: 10817
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Here's how a President's approval rating has historically impacted off-year elections.

If a President's approval is at 60%, his party on average gains 3 seats.
If his approval is at 50%, on average his party loses 36 seats.
If his approval is at 40%, on average his party loses 40 seats.

Trump's current average approval in the RCP average is 40%.
It depends on the poll: Poll: Trump approval rating rebounds | TheHill. Of course, if you go to CNN, then it is much lower - but we know whose side they are on. You also have to keep in mind that there is over a year before the 2018 election - lots can happen and these numbers can change almost overnight.

There is one factor that most of the polls missed on the 2016 election; the small donors: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/...-has-a-problem. Hillary thought that she had the election in the bag because she had the greatest war chest - we saw how that made out. My wife and I donated $35 and while that sounds like nothing; it was the first time in our 70 years we ever donated to any President - it shows commitment; we wanted change. The Democrats also have to demonstrate they can 'change' before the 2018 election and I do not see that happening.
 
Old 06-25-2017, 10:48 AM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,317,675 times
Reputation: 7449
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Here's how a President's approval rating has historically impacted off-year elections.

If a President's approval is at 60%, his party on average gains 3 seats.
If his approval is at 50%, on average his party loses 36 seats.
If his approval is at 40%, on average his party loses 40 seats.

Trump's current average approval in the RCP average is 40%.
Good thing your old rules don't apply to Trump.

How's your "Blue Wall" faring?
 
Old 06-25-2017, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,303 posts, read 11,541,269 times
Reputation: 4315
Quote:
Originally Posted by fisheye View Post
It depends on the poll: Poll: Trump approval rating rebounds | TheHill. Of course, if you go to CNN, then it is much lower - but we know whose side they are on. You also have to keep in mind that there is over a year before the 2018 election - lots can happen and these numbers can change almost overnight.

There is one factor that most of the polls missed on the 2016 election; the small donors: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/...-has-a-problem. Hillary thought that she had the election in the bag because she had the greatest war chest - we saw how that made out. My wife and I donated $35 and while that sounds like nothing; it was the first time in our 70 years we ever donated to any President - it shows commitment; we wanted change. The Democrats also have to demonstrate they can 'change' before the 2018 election and I do not see that happening.
RCP averages all the polls, he is at 40.1 even when you include outliers

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

But less be clear, "disapproval" of one person is not the same as approval for the other. That mindset is exactly why Republicans thought they were going to win in 2012.
 
Old 06-25-2017, 10:09 PM
 
20,681 posts, read 8,823,918 times
Reputation: 7149
Quote:
Originally Posted by fisheye View Post
Don't give me this "rich wins" BS. Where did the billion or so dollars come from in Hillary's war chest? It did not come form little guys; most of it came from the rich. Do you think the rich waste money on candidates that are going to lose them money? Of course there are 'rich' people/organizations that back both Parties; but which Party is fighting to get rid of lobbyist and special interest (neither one right now).

As far as fighting for our vets, poor, the middle class and seniors - good luck with that. The Democrats were in power for eight years and all we heard was one scandal after another from the VA. There was hardly one peep out of DC about our homeless. The middle class only exist to tax more. And our seniors could not die quick enough. The Democrats only worried about the poor, cheap, labor that illegally entered our Country and made their fellow rich supporters richer and that ideology is still there even today!



Do you have any idea what the new GOP healthcare plan is. It hurts everyone but the 1 percent. It gives them tax breaks while screwing the poor, the middle class, the elderly and disabled.
 
Old 06-26-2017, 05:33 AM
 
Location: Swiftwater, PA
14,417 posts, read 11,725,880 times
Reputation: 10817
Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
[/b]

Do you have any idea what the new GOP healthcare plan is. It hurts everyone but the 1 percent. It gives them tax breaks while screwing the poor, the middle class, the elderly and disabled.
If it is a poor as you state; then the Democrats will do better in 2018. But, supposedly, the Republicans are not done with all the changes and there is a second part to this legislation.
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