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Old 06-04-2017, 01:22 PM
 
18,689 posts, read 7,264,665 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
At this point, I think a small net gain for Democrats is realistic in 2018, but actually flipping the House will be very difficult. Most seats are not very competitive and already represented by the party who has more local support, and fewer voters are willing to cross over than in the past. The GA-06 special election in a few weeks will be a test if Democrats do have much potential of taking over traditionally Republican seats where support for Trump was modest in 2016.

Further out, I'm not so sure that the 2020 census will have a negative impact on Democratic representation in the House. Many red states have blue sections that are growing quickly, and a lot of rural areas across the nation that are overwhelmingly Republican are losing population. There are a lot of different variables and how the congressional maps are drawn will depend heavily on the outcome of state level elections and possibly court decisions over the next few years.
33 GOP govs draw the maps.

 
Old 06-04-2017, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,548 posts, read 730,367 times
Reputation: 1650
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
The Georgia special election is meaningless. Even if Ossoff ekes out a win, he will lose the seat in the regular election because the Democrats won't have $12M to throw at the race.
Both sides are investing heavily in the GA-06 special election. And as much as voters criticize Congress as an institution, they tend to keep their local incumbent in office in most circumstances - so whoever wins on 6/20 shouldn't be counted out next year.

SC-05 also has their special election on 6/20. I think that should be an easy hold for Republicans, but the margin will matter in terms of forecasting other races. If Democrats reduce their losing margin over past elections in GA-06 and SC-05 (or actually win the former), like they have already done in KS-04 and MT-AL, that does suggest an emerging trend line that isn't just due to local factors.

Or maybe we can throw all this analysis out the window, and just assume voters will rise up next year to get rid of Democrats in many districts considered safe, and primary out those Republicans who aren't sufficiently supportive of the president. That would be unprecedented, but America has had plenty of electoral surprises lately - so never say never!
 
Old 06-04-2017, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,548 posts, read 730,367 times
Reputation: 1650
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
33 GOP govs draw the maps.
Redistricting will take place in 2021 after many of the current governors are out of office, and the ownership of drawing the maps varies between states. Legislatures and independent commissions draw the lines in many states with the governor having more influence in some states than others. Republicans currently have an overwhelming dominance at the state level but the balance in 2021 will be relevant, not 2017.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,605 posts, read 33,598,618 times
Reputation: 51713
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
Both sides are investing heavily in the GA-06 special election. And as much as voters criticize Congress as an institution, they tend to keep their local incumbent in office in most circumstances - so whoever wins on 6/20 shouldn't be counted out next year.

SC-05 also has their special election on 6/20. I think that should be an easy hold for Republicans, but the margin will matter in terms of forecasting other races. If Democrats reduce their losing margin over past elections in GA-06 and SC-05 (or actually win the former), like they have already done in KS-04 and MT-AL, that does suggest an emerging trend line that isn't just due to local factors.

Or maybe we can throw all this analysis out the window, and just assume voters will rise up next year to get rid of Democrats in many districts considered safe, and primary out those Republicans who aren't sufficiently supportive of the president. That would be unprecedented, but America has had plenty of electoral surprises lately - so never say never!
Hillary Clinton said the DNC doesn't have any money. I think that was reason number 5,768 why she lost. She had to throw her own money in. Maybe she can adopt some of them.

But seriously, I want to primary out the incumbent Republicans but I'm not inclined to replace them with other lawyers.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 02:17 PM
 
18,689 posts, read 7,264,665 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
Redistricting will take place in 2021 after many of the current governors are out of office, and the ownership of drawing the maps varies between states. Legislatures and independent commissions draw the lines in many states with the governor having more influence in some states than others. Republicans currently have an overwhelming dominance at the state level but the balance in 2021 will be relevant, not 2017.

It will still be 30 plus. Most races were not close. Middle America largely disses Democratic nominees. Same for state houses. GOP has 2 dozen states with 3 chamber control. Dems have 4.

Plus most have healthy favorable approval ratings. Folks like low tax gov't.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 03:09 PM
 
Location: Middle of the Pacific Ocean
11,430 posts, read 6,189,061 times
Reputation: 11268
Democrats don't have a realistic shot at taking back the House in 2018, especially once the Russian "investigation" is proved to be nothing more than delusional, hysteria. They will have spent the entirety of two years bashing President Trump, but with little to show for it. I say bring it on.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 07:27 PM
 
Location: Denver, CO
321 posts, read 118,927 times
Reputation: 100
Gop governor in Blue states , Illinois, Maryland , Vermont , New Jersey , MA , New hampshire , Nevada , New México, Maine...

The Democratic party has more chances and potential in conquering several banks of governors and decreasing the Republican advantage in 2018

Last edited by YanMarcs; 06-04-2017 at 07:38 PM..
 
Old 06-04-2017, 07:47 PM
 
Location: Middle of the Pacific Ocean
11,430 posts, read 6,189,061 times
Reputation: 11268
Quote:
Originally Posted by YanMarcs View Post
Gop governor in Blue states , Illinois, Maryland , Vermont , New Jersey , MA , New hampshire , Nevada , New México, Maine...

The Democratic party has more chances and potential in conquering several banks of governors and decreasing the Republican advantage in 2018
Dems will pick up some governorships for sure. But I see Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine staying in the GOP column. With the exception of Maine, there are incumbent governors running for reelection, all of whom seem to enjoy enough popularity to be reelected. Maine was pretty close even at the presidential level and has a two term GOP governor; is Maine returning to its traditional GOP roots (I think that will all depend on the type of Republican nominated). NJ will probably elect a Dem given the state's natural leftward bend and Christie's dismal approval rating. Same with Nevada and New Mexico, though both incumbent governors (barred from seeking a third term) are popular).
 
Old 06-04-2017, 07:54 PM
 
18,689 posts, read 7,264,665 times
Reputation: 7997
Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
Dems will pick up some governorships for sure. But I see Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine staying in the GOP column. With the exception of Maine, there are incumbent governors running for reelection, all of whom seem to enjoy enough popularity to be reelected. Maine was pretty close even at the presidential level and has a two term GOP governor; is Maine returning to its traditional GOP roots (I think that will all depend on the type of Republican nominated). NJ will probably elect a Dem given the state's natural leftward bend and Christie's dismal approval rating. Same with Nevada and New Mexico, though both incumbent governors (barred from seeking a third term) are popular).
Agreed, plus those are not states gaining EC votes. Almost all of those are solid GOP states.
 
Old 06-04-2017, 07:58 PM
 
Location: Houston
5,349 posts, read 2,722,660 times
Reputation: 3315
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
It isn't happening. There is no "anti-Trump backlash." It's the same old leftists in the media pushing fake news.
Awwwww... it's so cute that you still believe that.
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