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Old 06-11-2017, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,328 posts, read 11,554,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
As you pointed out, one measure of the composition of the district itself is the Cook Partisan Voting Index, also called PVI. The PVI is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline.

NV - PVI - Current occupant
1st D+15 Democratic
2nd R+7 Republican
3rd R+2 Democratic
4th D+3 Democratic

So the 3rd and 4th district can be considered "battleground" districts, and indeed the Republican party has chosen them as 2 of the 36 target districts for 2018.

But I think you also have to look at who won. For the last 18 elections since NV was given more than one congressman, the Democrats have had a majority only two times, while the Republicans have had a majority seven times.

In some ways, Nevada is on the cusp of the demographic changes of our nation. Large increases in population, and a rapid increase in Latino percentage. Yet the Republican party has dominated the congressional representation to the House since the 1980 census.


finally we are at least on the same page

Although, I disagree with looking that far back, as again, part of my point is the population growth, and change in demographics.

You cant really compare Nevada 20 years ago to Nevada today, same with Arizona, Georgia or Colorado, all of which have had leftward shifts in urbanization and demographics.

 
Old 06-11-2017, 01:06 PM
 
7,156 posts, read 2,531,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Very unlikely. See article on NY 19- a rural district-posted today. DNC precludes running mainstream candidates who have solid America old fashioned values which would appeal to folks in these "meat and potato style districts". Making sure Johnny the perv can share a bathroom with a 9 year old girl does not seem to win them over (sar).

GOP will hold the House and Senate for many terms to come. Its due to the Dems getting decimated in Middle America, while the Acela belt loses seats every census, and NY state will lose a few more Congressional seats this time, no doubt.
You still haven't supported that "40-50 year" statement. There isn't any statistical source that can support that claim for either the Presidency or the House. If you were basing that claim on state legislatures or the U.S. Senate you might be able to make a better case, but only marginally at best.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
1,571 posts, read 750,454 times
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Republicans have a much better coalition today in terms of their geographic distribution than Democrats do, because they are not so concentrated in a limited set of locations. There isn't any guarantee that will be true in 40-50 years - coalitions aren't set in stone and as the party in power takes measures that appeal to its core supporters, some of the more marginal voters look to the alternate party. In 2008 there were Bush -> Obama voters, in 2016 Obama -> Trump voters, and in 2024 (or even 2020 possibly) there will likely be Trump 2016 voters who switch to the Democrats. Additionally, many of the people voting today won't be alive in half a century, and millions of others who aren't even born today will have entered the electorate. This will be true even if the Trump administration finds a way to completely turn off the immigration spigot, and deport every undocumented immigrant in the nation.

For 2018, my guess is Democrats will gain about 10 House seats, lose about 4 Senate seats, and pick up 3 governors - in addition to gaining New Jersey and holding Virginia in 2017.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
23,328 posts, read 11,554,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post

For 2018, my guess is Democrats will gain about 10 House seats, lose about 4 Senate seats, and pick up 3 governors - in addition to gaining New Jersey and holding Virginia in 2017.
If I had to guess the 3 gains in governorships outside of New Jersey, it would likely be Nevada(Ross Miller or Aaron Ford,one will run for senate the other for governor), New Mexico (Michelle Lujan Grisham, ) and Illinois.

Florida is an interesting one to watch because of the Democratic party race, Gwen Graham was the Democratic designate to run for governor. Andrew Gillum was supposed to wait his turn, possibly to take Graham's seat if the courts ruled in the party's favor net year and changed the district map back.

But something happened, Gillum went out in 2016 and stomped for party candidates, where as it looks like Graham only stomped for herself building her profile.

Gillum didnt see the need to fall in line behind a centrist.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 04:01 PM
 
9,886 posts, read 10,135,158 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
coalitions aren't set in stone and as the party in power takes measures that appeal to its core supporters, some of the more marginal voters look to the alternate party.
Although Latinos first flexed their political muscles in 1960 by voting for the Catholic JFK, they have leaned Democrat. However, for GW Bush's second term roughly 45% voted Republican.

Hispanics favored Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton 65% to 29%, a 36-point difference that helped her secure winning margins in states like Nevada and Colorado and kept her competitive late into the night in other key battleground states.

But that margin, based on exit polling conducted by Edison Research, was smaller than the 71%-27% split that President Obama won in 2012. And it was smaller than the 72%-21% her husband, former president Bill Clinton, won in 1996.

But while the African American vote has settled on the Democrats in the 1960's and is largely unswayed for 50 years (YES- I KNOW THERE ARE AFRICAN AMERICAN REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS), the Latino vote may prove more flexible in upcoming decades.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 04:05 PM
 
18,895 posts, read 7,360,154 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
You still haven't supported that "40-50 year" statement. There isn't any statistical source that can support that claim for either the Presidency or the House. If you were basing that claim on state legislatures or the U.S. Senate you might be able to make a better case, but only marginally at best.
House is function of governorships and state legislatures. Been Gerry-mandered since LBJ.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 07:39 PM
 
7,156 posts, read 2,531,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
House is function of governorships and state legislatures. Been Gerry-mandered since LBJ.

Quote:
It’s harder to assess how population trends could affect the balance of power in the House. Even though states that currently lean red are likely to gain congressional seats, the new seats could very well be blue. That’s what happened in Texas after the last round of reapportionment — three of the four congressional seats the state gained after the 2010 census went to Democrats. Republicans have shown great skill in drawing favorable House districts in recent years, but it may take all of that skill and some luck in state elections to keep their current advantage in the House.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-is-dwindling/

Quote:
Overall, this represents very little change in the Electoral College. While the apportionment shifts are to states controlled by Republican legislatures (for now), it would probably benefit Democrats overall, as it is pretty difficult to eliminate any more Democratic seats in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, while states like Texas and Florida would probably have to draw at least some Democratic-leaning districts.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...g__132623.html

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-11-2017 at 07:50 PM..
 
Old 06-11-2017, 08:01 PM
 
18,895 posts, read 7,360,154 times
Reputation: 8074
The point was GOP controls 2 dozen states, Dems have 4. He who runs the states draws the districts.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 09:29 PM
 
7,156 posts, read 2,531,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
The point was GOP controls 2 dozen states, Dems have 4. He who runs the states draws the districts.
Subject to court review. Most of the growth in Sunbelt states is among minority groups. Last time Texas gained seats through population growth, 3 of the 4 seats created went to minority districts, despite Republicans controlling the legislature. As Sean Trende indicated in one of the articles I linked, it's hard to reduce the D delegations much lower in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania due to how the D vote is clustered there. It's difficult to not create new D districts in the Sunbelt for the same reason. There's not likely to be a huge windfall either way.
 
Old 06-11-2017, 09:48 PM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,322,442 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Subject to court review. Most of the growth in Sunbelt states is among minority groups. Last time Texas gained seats through population growth, 3 of the 4 seats created went to minority districts, despite Republicans controlling the legislature. As Sean Trende indicated in one of the articles I linked, it's hard to reduce the D delegations much lower in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania due to how the D vote is clustered there. It's difficult to not create new D districts in the Sunbelt for the same reason. There's not likely to be a huge windfall either way.
The only chance the Democrats have is the courts and gerrymandering. Their winning personalities and lack of ideas aren't going to win many elections.
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